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Jax
... Vegas calls the Packers a better chance of winning the SB than the Eagles. However, Vegas also thinks Chipper has a better shot than AR. The Saints odds must be so low bc they are a 6 seed and will not play a home game under any circumstance.

Yes, it is all driven by wagering dollars and not by football science. Just for fun.

Odds to win the 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver Broncos - 11/4
Seattle Seahawks - 11/4
San Francisco 49ers - 7/1
New England Patriots - 9/1
Carolina Panthers - 10/1
Green Bay Packers - 14/1
Philadelphia Eagles - 16/1
Cincinnati Bengals - 18/1
Kansas City Chiefs - 22/1
New Orleans Saints - 22/1
Indianapolis Colts - 28/1
San Diego Chargers - 35/1
mcnabbulous
I think the Colts are the best bet for the money. I don't expect them to win it all, but if Luck got really hot, they could make a run. They've already proven they can play/beat any team in football.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Jax @ Dec 31 2013, 10:12 AM) *
... Vegas calls the Packers a better chance of winning the SB than the Eagles. However, Vegas also thinks Chipper has a better shot than AR. The Saints odds must be so low bc they are a 6 seed and will not play a home game under any circumstance.

Yes, it is all driven by wagering dollars and not by football science. Just for fun.

Odds to win the 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver Broncos - 11/4
Seattle Seahawks - 11/4
San Francisco 49ers - 7/1
New England Patriots - 9/1
Carolina Panthers - 10/1
Green Bay Packers - 14/1
Philadelphia Eagles - 16/1
Cincinnati Bengals - 18/1
Kansas City Chiefs - 22/1
New Orleans Saints - 22/1
Indianapolis Colts - 28/1
San Diego Chargers - 35/1


Obviously nobody in Vegas has watched Eagles games for the last 15 years. The Chiefs should be 500 to 1, being generous.

Best bets for the odds are Green Bay and Cincinnati.
make_it_rain
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Dec 31 2013, 02:48 PM) *
Obviously nobody in Vegas has watched Eagles games for the last 15 years. The Chiefs should be 500 to 1, being generous.

Best bets for the odds are Green Bay and Cincinnati.


Its also worth pointing out that these odds dont just reflect who Vegas think is the best team/ favorite to win, but also takes into account public wagering tendencies, and which teams tend to have a larger betting following.

A good example of this is San Francisco. Theyre pretty good but giving them just 7/1 seems pretty stiff to me. They'll have to go to Green Bay, then to Seattle, then likely on the road again for the NFC Championship game, and THEN get it done in the Super Bowl. Thats a tough path even for a good team, and I would have expected them to open at better odds than 7 to 1. Then again, San Fran usually has a big public following, so you wonder how much of that public hype is priced into this line.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 31 2013, 02:57 PM) *
Its also worth pointing out that these odds dont just reflect who Vegas think is the best team/ favorite to win, but also takes into account public wagering tendencies, and which teams tend to have a larger betting following.

A good example of this is San Francisco. Theyre pretty good but giving them just 7/1 seems pretty stiff to me. They'll have to go to Green Bay, then to Seattle, then likely on the road again for the NFC Championship game, and THEN get it done in the Super Bowl. Thats a tough path even for a good team, and I would have expected them to open at better odds than 7 to 1. Then again, San Fran usually has a big public following, so you wonder how much of that public hype is priced into this line.

Agreed. I think SF is the worst bet on that board.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 31 2013, 01:57 PM) *
Its also worth pointing out that these odds dont just reflect who Vegas think is the best team/ favorite to win, but also takes into account public wagering tendencies, and which teams tend to have a larger betting following.

A good example of this is San Francisco. Theyre pretty good but giving them just 7/1 seems pretty stiff to me. They'll have to go to Green Bay, then to Seattle, then likely on the road again for the NFC Championship game, and THEN get it done in the Super Bowl. Thats a tough path even for a good team, and I would have expected them to open at better odds than 7 to 1. Then again, San Fran usually has a big public following, so you wonder how much of that public hype is priced into this line.


Yeah, SF at 7:1 will go up. I know the Panthers have been on fire and all, but I don't much like them at 10:1 either.
Phits
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 31 2013, 01:57 PM) *
Its also worth pointing out that these odds dont just reflect who Vegas think is the best team/ favorite to win, but also takes into account public wagering tendencies, and which teams tend to have a larger betting following.

A good example of this is San Francisco. Theyre pretty good but giving them just 7/1 seems pretty stiff to me. They'll have to go to Green Bay, then to Seattle, then likely on the road again for the NFC Championship game, and THEN get it done in the Super Bowl. Thats a tough path even for a good team, and I would have expected them to open at better odds than 7 to 1. Then again, San Fran usually has a big public following, so you wonder how much of that public hype is priced into this line.

SF is 6-2 both at hom and on the road. They won their last 6 games including close wins against Seattle and Arizona. They are a very good team and could host the NFCCG if things go right.

I think GB is fool's gold. Aside from their QB they aren't a very good team.
make_it_rain
QUOTE (Phits @ Dec 31 2013, 03:54 PM) *
They are a very good team and could host the NFCCG if things go right.

I think GB is fool's gold. Aside from their QB they aren't a very good team.


Has a 5 seed ever hosted a Championship game? I know Arizona was the 4 in 2008 and hosted the eagles, but I don't think a 5 has.

I'm not disputing that San Francisco is good. I just think 7-1 is way too much of a premium to pay for a team that will need to go on the road three times, and THEN win in the Super Bowl against someone like Denver or New England.
Jax
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Dec 31 2013, 02:37 PM) *
Yeah, SF at 7:1 will go up. I know the Panthers have been on fire and all, but I don't much like them at 10:1 either.

Carolina is versatile. They can matchup style wise with anyone. I give them a shot for sure. That said, I wouldn't mind us getting a shot to play them. I'd probably choose that over a cross country flight to the PNW.
Phits
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 31 2013, 04:18 PM) *
Has a 5 seed ever hosted a Championship game? I know Arizona was the 4 in 2008 and hosted the eagles, but I don't think a 5 has.

I believe that you are correct. For some reason I thought that the conference championship was determined by regular season record not playoff seeding.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Dec 31 2013, 04:18 PM) *
Has a 5 seed ever hosted a Championship game? I know Arizona was the 4 in 2008 and hosted the eagles, but I don't think a 5 has.

I'm not disputing that San Francisco is good. I just think 7-1 is way too much of a premium to pay for a team that will need to go on the road three times, and THEN win in the Super Bowl against someone like Denver or New England.


The NFCCG with us vs. Arizona was the lowest seed to ever host, no #5 has ever hosted a conference championship game. The '07 Giants are also the only #5 to win a ring,
there have been 2 each of the #3, #4, and #6 seeds, and of course a shitload of #1s and #2s.
nephillymike
Speaking of betting lines,

Historically, a 2.5 point favorite at home, wins the game 58% of the time, so a money line of betting $140 to win $100 is what history says it should be.

I see it is $135 to win $100 so that's appropriate.
Foles Cheesesteaks
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Dec 31 2013, 11:00 AM) *
I think the Colts are the best bet for the money. I don't expect them to win it all, but if Luck got really hot, they could make a run. They've already proven they can play/beat any team in football.



Best bet for the money is the Panthers... they have a bye. Are at home... match up well with the Seahawks. If they win 3 games with the most dynamic player in football under center my $ is x10.... YES PLEASE
rumply
The betfair markets look a bit more accurate

Betfair

Seattle Seahawks
3.9
Denver Broncos
4
Carolina Panthers
11
New England Patriots
10.5
San Francisco 49ers
11.5
Cincinnati Bengals
18.5
Green Bay Packers
22
Philadelphia Eagles
28
New Orleans Saints
29
Indianapolis Colts
34
Kansas City Chiefs
40
San Diego Chargers
50
Jax
QUOTE (Foles Cheesesteaks @ Jan 1 2014, 11:48 AM) *
Best bet for the money is the Panthers... they have a bye. Are at home... match up well with the Seahawks. If they win 3 games with the most dynamic player in football under center my $ is x10.... YES PLEASE

No argument from me
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