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Full Version: How About Those Playoff Chances Now??
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If you go to the main page of that site, I believe given by Dreagon earlier in the week, here's what the latest of our playoff chances:

SEA = in
CAR = 98.2
NO = 94.0
SF = 92.4
DET = 73.4
DAL = 56.4
PHI = 52.9
GB = 14.9
CHI = 11.9
ARI = 6.1

Now if CAR beats NO, our chances go up by 1.8%
If CHI beats DAL, they go up 8.6%

You can also see our playoff chances based on our record.
3-0 and we're in
2-0-1 and it's a 95% chance
2-1 and it's a 72% shot.

Neat stuff.

Fingers crossed.
Looking into this a little deeper:

If we go 11-5, obviously we're in as NFC East Champs

Now, if we go 10-6, and lose out to DAL for the division title, then we're battling for one of the two wild card spots.

After CAR loses tonight, they and SF are both 9-4. SF is 6-3 in the conference, CAR is 7-3 We are 8-5, with a 7-2 conference record.

For non divisional wild card teams, the tiebreakers are first head to head, second conference winning percentage. We played neither head to head.

SF has @ TB, vs ATL, @ ARI
CAR has vs NYJ, vs. NO, @ ATL.

We would need one of them to lose 2 games of their last 3 to finish at 10-6.

Since we play all conference games left, if we go 2-1 then we would end up 9-3 in the conference.

If both CAR losses are NFC games, they finish 7-5, if one is they finish 8-4.
All of SF games are NFC, so if they lose 2, they finish 7-5.
We would win the WC berth based on the 2nd tiebreaker, conference record.

So it looks like to get in the playoffs we would need to:

1. Win out and get in as 11-5 NFC East Champs


2. Go 10-6, and have either SF or CAR lose two of it's last three and we get a WC berth


3. Go 10-6, and have DAL lose two of four and get in as the NFC East Champs

A DAL loss tomorrow makes # 3 more likely. Also, the fact that GB won today, makes it more likely for them to play Rodgers at DAL who will be coming off a short week.

While none of the three may appear likely taken by themselves, one of the three happening looks a lot more likely at this point in time. And all we need is one.
If we aren't good enough to beat Dallas then we aren't good enough to matter in the playoffs. Frankly, the Dallas game is a playoff game regardless of anything else.
That San Francisco win was pretty big.

If we could have moved into the 6 seed owning the tiebreaker, it would mean that the eagles could lose in Dallas week 17 and still potentially grab a wildcard if the 49ers lose at Arizona in week 17 as well. As it stands, the story remains the same. They need to keep winning. The first tiebreak against either San Fran or Carolina would be conference record, right now birds are at 7-2, San Fran is 6-3 and Carolina is 7-3.

Also, Green Bay winning was pretty big. I would think they shut him down for the season if the Pack loses today, as they'd be eliminated. With the win and especially the Detroit loss they're right back in it. I don't know how far a long Rodgers is, but he has been practicing, and at least with that win there's SOME chance he plays against Dallas. AP is the man but it would be very helpful if he wasn't able to play next week. It looks like its only a sprain, but even if he's limited that helps.

Lots of scoreboard watching coming up. The Monday night game is enormous.

QUOTE (Jax @ Dec 8 2013, 11:41 PM) *
If we aren't good enough to beat Dallas then we aren't good enough to matter in the playoffs. Frankly, the Dallas game is a playoff game regardless of anything else.

This. We'll be watching scoreboards and all, but we should be good enough to win the division. Huge win today.
What tonight's DAL loss does

Bumps us up to 6th in chance to make playoffs to 60.3%, and drops DAL to 7th at 43.2%.

More importantly, it just about ensures that we will not be a game behind DAL going into DAL on that last Sunday, which means that the game will likely mean something. Prior to this loss, there was a chance that could have happened. If DAL loses another game compared to us, we could go in with 5 losses and them with 7 which would make it meaningless for the division title. We can only hope.

All in all, a very good weekend!!
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