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nephillymike
I've been hearing all the kudos about the Eagles D and I agree they have made big strides.

They tackle well, don't give up many big plays of late, and their pass rush has improved.

Their lowly but impressive 17.4 points per game is a mix of the above, plus some timely turnovers and good red zone defense.

However, even the seven game stretch that created the 17.4 PPG has had its disappointments.

During that stretch, they have AVERAGED allowing 401 yds. per game, against some less than stellar or injured offenses.

YTD, the team is 15th in PPG allowed and 31st in YPG allowed.
The offense is 5th in YPG and 10th in PPG.

However, even if you ignore the first four games of the year and just use the last seven, they are giving up 401 yds. per game, and for the season, that 401 yds. per game is 31st in the league, the same ranking they have if you include the entire year.

That's pathetic. I love the stinginess in points, but they need to get off the field and let our offense do real damage.

401 yds. per game against the TB's, OAK, DAL without Murray, GB without Rodgers just ain't good enough for a team with playoff aspirations.

They need to improve and soon.
samaroo
I think points is a better barometer of D than yards, but I get your point. However, we are losing the TOP battle (by a lot) every week, in part because our O tends to score quickly. I'll give up 500 yds/game if we're only allowing 17 pts, all day every day. I love how far they've come this year.

However, it kills me that we keep giving up 1st downs every time it's 3rd and 30. It's giving me heartburn!
Jax
QUOTE (samaroo @ Nov 19 2013, 09:29 PM) *
However, it kills me that we keep giving up 1st downs every time it's 3rd and 30. It's giving me heartburn!

Absolutely... and while our defense has improved, I think the points stat is misleading. We still have to get a whole lot better.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 19 2013, 08:44 PM) *
I've been hearing all the kudos about the Eagles D and I agree they have made big strides.

They tackle well, don't give up many big plays of late, and their pass rush has improved.

Their lowly but impressive 17.4 points per game is a mix of the above, plus some timely turnovers and good red zone defense.

However, even the seven game stretch that created the 17.4 PPG has had its disappointments.

During that stretch, they have AVERAGED allowing 401 yds. per game, against some less than stellar or injured offenses.

YTD, the team is 15th in PPG allowed and 31st in YPG allowed.
The offense is 5th in YPG and 10th in PPG.

However, even if you ignore the first four games of the year and just use the last seven, they are giving up 401 yds. per game, and for the season, that 401 yds. per game is 31st in the league, the same ranking they have if you include the entire year.

That's pathetic. I love the stinginess in points, but they need to get off the field and let our offense do real damage.

401 yds. per game against the TB's, OAK, DAL without Murray, GB without Rodgers just ain't good enough for a team with playoff aspirations.

They need to improve and soon.


Funny you mention this.....I was looking on PFR tonight and several things jump out

The Eagles have played 11 games compared to 10 for all but 3 other teams.....they also have faced 72 more plays than any other team, a by-product of a quick score offense.


They are not stellar yet but clearly getting better......They have become an aggressive, sure tackling defense. They have a ways to go but are clearly much better and young. The late Bye week is really going to be a huge factor for these guys.
make_it_rain
I was a little confused about this too. I think it's mostly just a reaction seen through the context of abysmally low expectations for this unit coming into the season (and even after the first few games)

It's important to make the distinction between vastly exceeding low expectations and playing at a high level in absolute terms. That being said, their isn't really a ton of pro bowl caliber talent on the defense either, so given that I think they're doing OK.
Phits
Our DC has found a way to get the D to click and make things happen. This shouldn't be taken lightly. I am not suggesting that this team is a defensive powerhouse. I don't think anybody is. Keeping in mind that this D is a work in progress, you can't just look at the yardage stats or points to assess the D. Also, consider the evolution of this D on a week to week basis and how it has matured. There are some areas of concern, that should be expected with the level of talent and the new system.

The T.O.P. is also deceiving, because our offense scores with expediency and efficiency. The evolution of Nick Foles as QB has also (potentially) freed up the early draft picks to use somewhere else (other than QB)...preferably on D, which would help their ascension to a defensive powerhouse smile.gif


D Rock
Whatever numbers you wanna look at. Whatever stat you chose to reference. Anyway you wanna cut it . . . they are exceeding expectations and out performing the overall talent level.

I can't complain. I was expecting a bottom 5 unit.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Nov 19 2013, 10:31 PM) *
Whatever numbers you wanna look at. Whatever stat you chose to reference. Anyway you wanna cut it . . . they are exceeding expectations and out performing the overall talent level.

I can't complain. I was expecting a bottom 5 unit.



In yards, you got a bottom two!!!
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Nov 19 2013, 10:05 PM) *
Funny you mention this.....I was looking on PFR tonight and several things jump out

The Eagles have played 11 games compared to 10 for all but 3 other teams.....they also have faced 72 more plays than any other team, a by-product of a quick score offense.


They are not stellar yet but clearly getting better......They have become an aggressive, sure tackling defense. They have a ways to go but are clearly much better and young. The late Bye week is really going to be a huge factor for these guys.



it's the chicken vs the egg theory debate.

Do they stay on the field so much because of our offense scores too fast, or do they stay on the field so much because they're not good enough to get off it quickly??

I don't have time to look at it, but there is probably a way to divide the source of blame.

I do love the way they run to the ball and their sure tackling.

One thing they need to do when gang tackling. The way we used to do it was once a guy had control of the runner and was sure he wasn't getting away, he'd yell out a code (we used "wrap") that told all the other defenders that the ball carrier wasn't getting away and they would go for the ball stripping it out of the guys hand. fumbles came in bunches. They are good enough tackling and have enough guys hustling that they could really do well with that.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 20 2013, 04:45 AM) *
In yards, you got a bottom two!!!

I couldn't care less about yards. I care about points.
iggleslover49
It's not just all starters too. The D has been facing injuries and the backups are coming in as playing adequate football.
Birdwatcher
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 19 2013, 10:52 PM) *
it's the chicken vs the egg theory debate.

Do they stay on the field so much because of our offense scores too fast, or do they stay on the field so much because they're not good enough to get off it quickly??

I don't have time to look at it, but there is probably a way to divide the source of blame.

I do love the way they run to the ball and their sure tackling.

One thing they need to do when gang tackling. The way we used to do it was once a guy had control of the runner and was sure he wasn't getting away, he'd yell out a code (we used "wrap") that told all the other defenders that the ball carrier wasn't getting away and they would go for the ball stripping it out of the guys hand. fumbles came in bunches. They are good enough tackling and have enough guys hustling that they could really do well with that.


Hey Mike have you looked at any other stats: How bout opponents TDs in the red zone? 7th in the league at 47%, but in the last 3 games it is only 20%. To me that is a D who can't yet cover a big field, but when it gets tight they clamp down pretty good. In a turnover season like this they are doing exactly the right thing, getting better as the season goes on, they need a few more pieces, but Davis is getting a lot from this no name bunch.
Expecting them to become an 'elite' D is illogical, the fact they are not an embarrassment is enough for me right now.
samaroo
I think Davis deserves a lot of the praise. The fact that he's getting this kind of effort consistently, and covering a lot of holes, speaks volumes. Preseason, I would've guessed we'd give up 17 points a half just on long passing TD's. The fact that our safeties aren't getting burned like witches every drive is pretty impressive to me.

With a good defensive draft (can we do that???) and maybe a key FA pickup or two, I think our D could be really good to great in the coming years.
Rick
First of all, not sure how you say it's overrated since I'm not aware of anyone rating them very high around here. I think we've all agreed the defense is playing way better than we expected (myself included).

Second of all, who gives a rats ass about yards? Points per game and WINS/LOSSES are what counts, not how many yards they give up. Not to mention, the coaches all say the defense is designed to give up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. After the first few games, this wasn't the case (we were giving up yards AND points) but we can see now that's what's happening.

Would you rather have a defense giving up 200 yards per game but 25 points per game???

Am I a bit concerned about us having problems getting off the field on 3rd down plays. Yes. Am I concerned about the (lack of) safety play? Yes. But, overall, this defense is getting it done at the moment.
xsv
I agree the defense still sucks... badly. The high yardage of the opposing team is a result of us not turning the ball over.and having solid special teams. We are consistently giving the opposing teams a long field to work with. I think this is also the reason we're not giving up a whole lot of points.

I'd be interested in seeing what our defense's average yards given up per drive is, and how it compares to the NFL average. I suspect we're probably below average, but not bottom five.
HobbEs
I'm seeing the only thing that matters: improvement.

We're in year 1 of switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. This process usually takes about 3 or 4 seasons to get all the right pieces into place.

I'm not looking at statistics this year. We've seen the progression from a bottom 5 defense at the beginning of the year to a unit that's starting to stop people and make plays. As long as they keep improving I'll be happy.
TO's Sharpie
QUOTE (HobbEs @ Nov 20 2013, 09:24 AM) *
I'm seeing the only thing that matters: improvement.

We're in year 1 of switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. This process usually takes about 3 or 4 seasons to get all the right pieces into place.

I'm not looking at statistics this year. We've seen the progression from a bottom 5 defense at the beginning of the year to a unit that's starting to stop people and make plays. As long as they keep improving I'll be happy.




jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif

Full agreement. There were little expectations for this unit coming into the year, and after the Charger game (at least for me) no expectations at all.

What impresses me is the conditioning of the team, there are points the D is on the field for what seems like forever and they do not outwardly show the exhaustion. Especially as the season goes on, I credit the coaching staff for doing what they can with this roster.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (xsv @ Nov 20 2013, 08:51 AM) *
I agree the defense still sucks... badly.


Since getting smashed by the world's best offense, we've given up 17 points a game, over 7 games. How on earth anyone can complain about that is beyond me. JJ's defenses averaged similar to that. Also, JJ's defenses were known for bending but not breaking, giving up a lot of yards but standing tall at the goal line, or creating turnovers/sacks/etc. We're not playing fantasy football, all that matters is points.
xsv
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Nov 20 2013, 09:43 AM) *
Since getting smashed by the world's best offense, we've given up 17 points a game, over 7 games. How on earth anyone can complain about that is beyond me. JJ's defenses averaged similar to that. Also, JJ's defenses were known for bending but not breaking, giving up a lot of yards but standing tall at the goal line, or creating turnovers/sacks/etc. We're not playing fantasy football, all that matters is points.


I'm not complaining at all. No matter how bad the defense has been, the opposing teams haven't scored a lot, and I'm thrilled about it.

But if you're trying to evaluate how good a defense is, I don't think points allowed is the best barometer. There's lot of other variables involves.

For example, lets compare two scenarios.

1.) The offense fumbles on their own 1 yard line. The opposing team comes in, runs 3 plays and gets stuffed each time. Then they go for it on fourth down, and they get the TD.

2.) The opposing team set up on offense their own 1 yardline. They run the ball 15 times in a row, march down the field, and then on the Eagles 5 yardline, have an incomplete pass and a couple of offensive penalties to stall the drive, and end up kicking a FG.

Which defense played better? Obviously, this is an oversimplification, but it was only meant to illustrate that there are other variables that go into points scored. Turnovers, penalties and distance all play a pretty large role in how many points the other team scores.

Like I said, I think a average yards allowed per drive, would be more indicative of how well a defense is playing.
xsv
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Nov 20 2013, 09:43 AM) *
We're not playing fantasy football, all that matters is points.


If you're talking about outcomes of games, then I agree.

This thread was more about the evaluation of a defense. In that case, no. Points are not all that matters.
D Rock
Wow, x. What a load of hooey!

The only result that matters from a defensive stand point is Points Allowed. (Period)

All the rest is just meaningless white noise.

They judge a team by wins and losses. Wins and losses are decided by which team has the most points. The offenses' only job is to score points. The defenses' job is to prevent them.

Average yard per drive? laugh.gif

Utterly meaningless babble.
mcnabbulous
I'm surprised you guys are still talking about TOP. Haven't you realized it's irrelevant? It's all about plays run. Having our defense standing around while the offense runs down the play clock isn't negatively impacting our guys.

Conversely, watching the other team huffing and puffing as we're running a new play every 20 seconds is a difference maker.

We give up lots of yards because we're a below average defense. Fortunately, they have made lots of timely plays in the red zone, which is giving us a shot on a weekly basis. That was the one thing about Davis' track record that was appealing before he got here. His bad defenses seemed to play above themselves in the red zone.

If that's all we get from him until we can improve the talent, than I'm satisfied. I don't think we're overrated. The general perception is that this is still a bad defense that is playing satisfactory.
Birdwatcher
QUOTE (D Rock @ Nov 20 2013, 10:41 AM) *
Wow, x. What a load of hooey!

The only result that matters from a defensive stand point is Points Allowed. (Period)

All the rest is just meaningless white noise.

They judge a team by wins and losses. Wins and losses are decided by which team has the most points. The offenses' only job is to score points. The defenses' job is to prevent them.

Average yard per drive? laugh.gif

Utterly meaningless babble.


Check out Smallwood's article on the D...how quickly we forget:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles...s_familiar.html
Phits
QUOTE (xsv @ Nov 20 2013, 10:39 AM) *
If you're talking about outcomes of games, then I agree.

This thread was more about the evaluation of a defense. In that case, no. Points are not all that matters.

Actually, the thread was about the defense being overrated. It's hard to be "overrated" when everybody thought you were going to suck out loud, and you have performed admirably. In this scenario points allowed is what matters.
Phits
QUOTE (Birdwatcher @ Nov 20 2013, 11:29 AM) *
Check out Smallwood's article on the D...how quickly we forget:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles...s_familiar.html

cheers.gif
'BEND BUT don't break."

"Get twisted like a pretzel, but don't snap."

"Give up chunks of yardage; lose the time-of-possession battle; it doesn't matter as long as you don't give up touchdowns."
xsv
QUOTE (D Rock @ Nov 20 2013, 10:41 AM) *
Wow, x. What a load of hooey!

The only result that matters from a defensive stand point is Points Allowed. (Period)

All the rest is just meaningless white noise.

They judge a team by wins and losses. Wins and losses are decided by which team has the most points. The offenses' only job is to score points. The defenses' job is to prevent them.

Average yard per drive? laugh.gif

Utterly meaningless babble.


You don't think there are other variables that might be contributing to our opponent's low scoring output over the last few games?

You really think that this defense has improved to the point where they are now the 4th best defense in the league?

If points are the ONLY factor to use when judging a defense as you say, then you must be saying that we've got the 4th best defense in the league.

Sorry, I'm not buying that. I love the results as much as anyone, but I think it's pretty obvious that this defense is improving, but still below average. I also think that there are several different reasons that based on points allowed, the Eagles have the 4th rated defense in the league over the last 7 games. I think those reasons include, but are not limited to...

playing backup qbs
opponent's penalties
fewer turnovers by us
worse starting position by our opponents
mcnabbulous
Why does it have to be so exaggerated? I don't think anyone is claiming they are the #4 defense. I think the general point is that they are playing better than anticipated and that is almost exclusively because of their red zone performance.

We have obviously benefitted by playing some bad QB's, but we shut down the Skins for 3 quarters. Despite some of their struggles this year, that's still a good offense.
xsv
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 20 2013, 01:27 PM) *
Why does it have to be so exaggerated? I don't think anyone is claiming they are the #4 defense. I think the general point is that they are playing better than anticipated and that is almost exclusively because of their red zone performance.

We have obviously benefitted by playing some bad QB's, but we shut down the Skins for 3 quarters. Despite some of their struggles this year, that's still a good offense.


I was responding to D Rock. He said that you should only evaluate a defense based on points, and that NOTHING else matters. So, by that method, if you are ranking defenses, over the last 7 games, the Eagles have the 4th best defense in the league.

I agree they are playing better than anticipated. I expected a bottom 5 defense in the league. But they still suck. Below average, anyways. Probably around 20th best (worst?). Certainly nowhere near one of the top defenses in the league, as an analysis consisting ONLY of points allowed would indicate.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (xsv @ Nov 20 2013, 01:51 PM) *
I was responding to D Rock. He said that you should only evaluate a defense based on points, and that NOTHING else matters. So, by that method, if you are ranking defenses, over the last 7 games, the Eagles have the 4th best defense in the league.

I agree they are playing better than anticipated. I expected a bottom 5 defense in the league. But they still suck. Below average, anyways. Probably around 20th best (worst?). Certainly nowhere near one of the top defenses in the league, as an analysis consisting ONLY of points allowed would indicate.

There is exaggeration all around. Obviously PPG is the definitive stat for dictating wins and losses, but competition impacts everything.

For what it's worth, Football Outsides has our Defensive DVOA at 26th (or 7th worst) in the league. I'd say that's just about right.

We're playing better than that in the red zone, which is why our PPG has been so solid of late. We also seem to be improving, as we were 28th last week. Which is nice.
xsv
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 20 2013, 02:55 PM) *
There is exaggeration all around. Obviously PPG is the definitive stat for dictating wins and losses, but competition impacts everything.

For what it's worth, Football Outsides has our Defensive DVOA at 26th (or 7th worst) in the league. I'd say that's just about right.

We're playing better than that in the red zone, which is why our PPG has been so solid of late. We also seem to be improving, as we were 28th last week. Which is nice.


26th does sound about right.

I'm not sure we can that say our PPG improvement lately is solely because of us playing better in the redzone, but it's certainly a big contributor.

I think the defense is improving. I don't think they've gotten as drastically better as some seem to think, but there's some improvement there, for sure.
Bocadelphia Eagles John
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 19 2013, 08:44 PM) *
That's pathetic. I love the stinginess in points, but they need to get off the field and let our offense do real damage.


I couldn't disagree more NEPM,

First off, whom among us had any vision of playoff aspirations on opening day ?

Then, we have an entirely new system installed with a lot of new personnel and you do know it takes time to get a new system down, right ?

And within that newly installed system we have some guys having to adjust to playing an entirely differernt role and/or position which, yep ... you guesse it...takes time to adjust to.

Nah. I like the fact this defense is improving week upon week.

I don't care if our opposition earns 3 million yards a game. You hold them to 17 or less, with our offense we're going to win a lot more games than we will lose.

It's the scoreboard Mike. And there's no box on it to count the yards.
Rick
QUOTE (xsv @ Nov 20 2013, 01:51 PM) *
I was responding to D Rock. He said that you should only evaluate a defense based on points, and that NOTHING else matters. So, by that method, if you are ranking defenses, over the last 7 games, the Eagles have the 4th best defense in the league.

Yes, we'd be the 4th best defense at giving up points. And, no matter what you think, that's all that matters. If we give up 1,000 yards a game and only give up 17 points per game and score 24 points per game, well, I'd say the defense is more than good enough to win games.

For the defense, points per game is all that matters. For the team (as a whole) wins/losses are all that matters. If the Eagles play like crap and win a game, that's all that matters. Conversely, if they play incredibly great, and lose the game, that's all that matters.

This is the pros, it IS about wins/losses, it doesn't matter how you play the game (with respect to what we're talking about here). And winning games requires scoring more points than the team you're playing.
nephillymike
Maybe the disconnect here is that many are not in the Phila area, hearing all week and last week how "good" our defense is. Not decent, not above average, not average, but good.

I've been hearing it for days now and that's not what my eyes remember, nor is it what my short research shows.

A defense that gives up the 2nd most yards in the NFL during a 7 game stretch where they have given up the 4th fewest points is an outlier. It is an accident waiting to happen.

We can't afford any accidents from here on out.

Those in this post who said they never said the D was any good, that's fine. But around here the airwaves are full with people saying how great the D is doing. If the people on here who didn't think the D was any good, they'd be annoyed like me at all the talk.

Quit the accolades and let's see a defense get off the field in three downs. Let's see a defense that can defend the pass better. I wonder what the opposition QB rating is? 110 maybe. Does anyone know?

We have some good QB's on the horizon. We need to get it in order and quick.
Phits
After the Denver game Billy Davis had the following to say:

QUOTE
ďIím asking you to trust me even though there is not the results. But the guys know through the daily work and techniques, it will turn. It will turn,Ē Davis said two days after his team allowed 35 first downs in Denver.

ďIt hasnít turned yet. Itís not where we want it to be. But we will continue to put our heads down and work and I really believe it will turn."


Since then the D has turned the corner. Sure they give up plenty of yards, but they are forcing turnovers and not allowing the points that should come with that many yards. The D seems to be jelling. There is still work to be done, but it isn't the major overhaul most were expecting when the season started.

Rick
As they say, it's a SCOREboard not a YARDSboard.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Phits @ Nov 20 2013, 07:08 PM) *
After the Denver game Billy Davis had the following to say:



Since then the D has turned the corner. Sure they give up plenty of yards, but they are forcing turnovers and not allowing the points that should come with that many yards. The D seems to be jelling. There is still work to be done, but it isn't the major overhaul most were expecting when the season started.

I'd say that what we are learning is that the scheme is something we can work with moving forward. Now we just need to incrementally increase the talent over the next few seasons.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Rick @ Nov 20 2013, 07:40 PM) *
As they say, it's a SCOREboard not a YARDSboard.


I don't think anyone says this
Flying Dutchman
We are 2/3rds of our first year transition from a 4-3 into this 3-4. There have been players added and players adapted to fit this scheme. They may not fit it perfectly in several cases but they are learning the system and playing better.....much better. Because of this transition I think looking at our D performance in segments of the season is valid. Hence the #4 ranking for recent games, while overblown at this time, leads me to conclude that we are far more than some 26-28 something ranked D. I definitely see us already as an average D at this point and if the kids continue to learn and evolve ie. Cox, Thornton, Logan, Curry, Graham, Boykin, Allen, Wolff, Kendricks, they could rise a little more in these last 5 games. This is the youngest Iggles D I can remember in decades. Add an OLB and CB with our first 2 picks next year and we could have a base that by year 4 at least could compete with anybody.
samaroo
I think pts/game is the best barometer of a D, but it's not perfect. Neither is yards. Neither is any single stat you want to look at. Denver's D is ranked 22 in yds allowed, and 23 in points. I think their D is better than that, and that those stats are skewed because their O gives the other team so many opportunities. The entire team's play contributes to these stats.

Speaking of stats, here are a few for you guys to mull over. They are pts/gm (PTS), yds/gm (YDS), 1st downs given up/game (1st), avg yds given/drive (Y/DRV) and drive success rate (DSR) which measures the percentage of series that result in a first down or touchdown (kneel downs don't count.)

PTS YDS 1st Y/DRV DSR

1 Car Hou Hou KC KC
2 KC Car NO Cle Bal
3 Sea NO Car Ari Cin
4 SF Cle Bal Bal NO
5 NO Sea NYJ NO Hou
6 Cin SF KC Hou NYJ
7 NEn NYJ SF Cin Car
8 Ari Ari GB Buf Buf
9 Bal Ten Pit SF SF
10 Ind NYG Ind NYJ Ari
11 SD KC Cle Car Cle
12 Mia Bal Ten Ten Ten
13 Ten Pit Cin NYG Sea
14 StL TB Oak Sea Det
15 Phi Cin Ari Oak Oak
16 TB Oak Det Den NE
17 Cle GB StL NE Den
18 GB StL NYG Pit NYG
19 Pit NE TB StL Pit
20 Oak Mia Chi Det Ind
21 Buf Ind NE Mia StL
22 Det Den SD TB Mia
23 Den Chi Atl Ind TB
24 NYG Det Mia GB GB
25 Dal Atl Sea Jac Chi
26 Chi Buf Den Phi Phi
27 NYJ SD Buf Was SD
28 Hou Was Jac Chi Jac
29 Atl Jac Was Min Atl
30 Was Min Min Atl Dal
31 Jac Dal Dal Dal Was
32 Min Phi Phi SD Min

I'm not enough of a numbers guy to say for sure if any of this is significant, but there seems to be a lot of disparity in some of these rankings. Each one tells a different part of the story in a different way. So, to some extent, I think they are all correct (Car, KC, Sea at the top in pts/game). But also, to some extent, they are all BS (Hou is #1 in 2 categories). Our average ranking, BTW, is 26.2, which sounds about right to me. Maybe I'll take these and average them together and come up with my own stat. I'll call it "Total Defense Rating" (TDR). Think I can get ESPN to buy off on it? cool.gif
xsv
QUOTE (samaroo @ Nov 21 2013, 12:09 AM) *
I think pts/game is the best barometer of a D, but it's not perfect. Neither is yards. Neither is any single stat you want to look at. Denver's D is ranked 22 in yds allowed, and 23 in points. I think their D is better than that, and that those stats are skewed because their O gives the other team so many opportunities. The entire team's play contributes to these stats.

Speaking of stats, here are a few for you guys to mull over. They are pts/gm (PTS), yds/gm (YDS), 1st downs given up/game (1st), avg yds given/drive (Y/DRV) and drive success rate (DSR) which measures the percentage of series that result in a first down or touchdown (kneel downs don't count.)

PTS YDS 1st Y/DRV DSR

1 Car Hou Hou KC KC
2 KC Car NO Cle Bal
3 Sea NO Car Ari Cin
4 SF Cle Bal Bal NO
5 NO Sea NYJ NO Hou
6 Cin SF KC Hou NYJ
7 NEn NYJ SF Cin Car
8 Ari Ari GB Buf Buf
9 Bal Ten Pit SF SF
10 Ind NYG Ind NYJ Ari
11 SD KC Cle Car Cle
12 Mia Bal Ten Ten Ten
13 Ten Pit Cin NYG Sea
14 StL TB Oak Sea Det
15 Phi Cin Ari Oak Oak
16 TB Oak Det Den NE
17 Cle GB StL NE Den
18 GB StL NYG Pit NYG
19 Pit NE TB StL Pit
20 Oak Mia Chi Det Ind
21 Buf Ind NE Mia StL
22 Det Den SD TB Mia
23 Den Chi Atl Ind TB
24 NYG Det Mia GB GB
25 Dal Atl Sea Jac Chi
26 Chi Buf Den Phi Phi
27 NYJ SD Buf Was SD
28 Hou Was Jac Chi Jac
29 Atl Jac Was Min Atl
30 Was Min Min Atl Dal
31 Jac Dal Dal Dal Was
32 Min Phi Phi SD Min

I'm not enough of a numbers guy to say for sure if any of this is significant, but there seems to be a lot of disparity in some of these rankings. Each one tells a different part of the story in a different way. So, to some extent, I think they are all correct (Car, KC, Sea at the top in pts/game). But also, to some extent, they are all BS (Hou is #1 in 2 categories). Our average ranking, BTW, is 26.2, which sounds about right to me. Maybe I'll take these and average them together and come up with my own stat. I'll call it "Total Defense Rating" (TDR). Think I can get ESPN to buy off on it? cool.gif


I like where you are going with this. I still think that an average yard allowed per drive would be a nice complementary stat to go along with ppg and ypg, to help explain possible dependencies.

HOUSEoPAIN
I'd put us in the middle of the pack, and we're ranked #15th in points per game. Obviously as everyone points out there are many factors and categories of stats that tell the whole tale, but I personally could care less if we give up 99 yards per drive as long as the drive ends up in a field goal or a turnover. Regarding points and yards, it should be noted that the success of Chip's offense also usually means that our defense is on the field often and without much rest, and in games like Oakland there were garbage points given up by our backups. I certainly don't think this defense deserves to be ranked in the mid-20s, they've earned their way into mediocrity.
mcnabbulous
You guys should really check out the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA if you want. It compares teams by situational success and opponent quality. The only ranking that surprises is the Giants. Other than that, it seems pretty fair.

One main thing of note. Our next opponent currently ranks #1.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
samaroo
Yeah, I saw that stat, too, but was tired of typing up that wall-of-stats to include it. I also thought it was interesting to see that it has us at 26, which is where we are when averaging the stats listed above.

And I hate playing Arizona. Someone else said it in another thread, but they seem to have our number. I'm sure the series is close to even, but Arizona and Chicago always seem to beat us. I hate those guys!
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 19 2013, 11:45 PM) *
In yards, you got a bottom two!!!

I agree with DRock on this and I seem to remember JJ's defense giving up lots of yards too. The base point is that we all expected the defense to suck this year but were hoping for improvement. We're seeing the improvement and they don't suck. That's bonus time for me.
Birdwatcher
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 20 2013, 05:35 PM) *
Maybe the disconnect here is that many are not in the Phila area, hearing all week and last week how "good" our defense is. Not decent, not above average, not average, but good.

I've been hearing it for days now and that's not what my eyes remember, nor is it what my short research shows.

A defense that gives up the 2nd most yards in the NFL during a 7 game stretch where they have given up the 4th fewest points is an outlier. It is an accident waiting to happen.

We can't afford any accidents from here on out.

Those in this post who said they never said the D was any good, that's fine. But around here the airwaves are full with people saying how great the D is doing. If the people on here who didn't think the D was any good, they'd be annoyed like me at all the talk.

Quit the accolades and let's see a defense get off the field in three downs. Let's see a defense that can defend the pass better. I wonder what the opposition QB rating is? 110 maybe. Does anyone know?

We have some good QB's on the horizon. We need to get it in order and quick.



What the media has been saying is that the D is far better than it was in the first four games. As someone pointed out, if a Reid team had given up 52 points in one game they would have packed it in afterward, but this D just the opposite. You are a local, you should check out Eagles extra the week after each game, excellent breakdown of coach's tape. With Didinger, Baldinger, and Westbrook reviewing the film you can clearly see how this team is evolving and improving, in every phase of the game, as the season progresses. Honestly, it is more than we had any right to expect this early in the transition to Chip-ball.
D Rock
Who said ANYBODY was claiming this was the #4 defense?

I was talking about "Points per Game" being the only meaningful defensive stat when looking at the singular unit.

Our friend, xsv put words in my mouth suggesting that equated to the Eagle's being 4th best defense in the league because of how they've performed over the past 7 weeks. I never said anything about where we stood in the league as a ranking.

But I will now. If you look at the season as a whole and not cherry pick your data set . . . the Eagles are currently 24th in the league in points per game.

So dismiss this singular meaningful stat if you like. But don't use an in complete data set to defend that decision.

24th seems about right to me.

As for tops in the league in points per game?

Carolina and K.C. are 1 & 2.

Again.

Seems about right to me.
xsv
Wasn't trying to put words in your mouth.

But you did say that points per game was the ONLY stat that should be considered when we were talking about a way to rank this defense compared to other defenses.

AND if you ONLY consider points per game, then over the last 7 games, the Eagles have the 4th rated defense in the league, again based ONLY on points per game.

Considering everything, I think they are a little better than 24th. I actually think they're a little closer to around 20th. This is a little better than I thought they would be. I still wouldn't say they are any good.





QUOTE (D Rock @ Nov 22 2013, 03:41 PM) *
Who said ANYBODY was claiming this was the #4 defense?

I was talking about "Points per Game" being the only meaningful defensive stat when looking at the singular unit.

Our friend, xsv put words in my mouth suggesting that equated to the Eagle's being 4th best defense in the league because of how they've performed over the past 7 weeks. I never said anything about where we stood in the league as a ranking.

But I will now. If you look at the season as a whole and not cherry pick your data set . . . the Eagles are currently 24th in the league in points per game.

So dismiss this singular meaningful stat if you like. But don't use an in complete data set to defend that decision.

24th seems about right to me.

As for tops in the league in points per game?

Carolina and K.C. are 1 & 2.

Again.

Seems about right to me.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (xsv @ Nov 20 2013, 04:40 PM) *
I'm not sure we can that say our PPG improvement lately is solely because of us playing better in the redzone, but it's certainly a big contributor.

Just came across this. We've only given up 2 TD's in the past 12 red zone opportunities on defense. I'd say it's the biggest contributor to our recent success:

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/multimed...0a-96d5b3560f87
xsv
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 22 2013, 05:16 PM) *
Just came across this. We've only given up 2 TD's in the past 12 red zone opportunities on defense. I'd say it's the biggest contributor to our recent success:

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/multimed...0a-96d5b3560f87


So, you're saying you agree with me.


nephillymike
QUOTE (Birdwatcher @ Nov 22 2013, 10:25 AM) *
What the media has been saying is that the D is far better than it was in the first four games. As someone pointed out, if a Reid team had given up 52 points in one game they would have packed it in afterward, but this D just the opposite. You are a local, you should check out Eagles extra the week after each game, excellent breakdown of coach's tape. With Didinger, Baldinger, and Westbrook reviewing the film you can clearly see how this team is evolving and improving, in every phase of the game, as the season progresses. Honestly, it is more than we had any right to expect this early in the transition to Chip-ball.



That's a great show and I never miss it. They should expand it to an hour.

See, coming out of FA and the draft, I had higher expectations for this D. I thought a realistic expectation was maybe a 20th rank defense. Based on the preseason and early season, expectations plummeted, but that doesn't mean 26th is fine, especially given the cap space and draft resources we had.

I love that they don't quit. I love that they gang tackle. I love that they're improving. But I worry that our DB's are a time bomb waiting to blow up when we play Romo, Stafford and Cutler.

To hear all the praise heaped on them locally is premature IMO. Again, during their 7 game improvement stretch, they are ranked 31st in yards allowed. That is a time bomb. It's like a pitcher who the other teams it .300 against but he has a low ERA because of timely shutdowns. Tick tick tick.

We're at playoffs door. We can't afford any setbacks. Instead of issuing kudos, the coaches and fans should be stressing that it ain't good enough!!
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