Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: So the Eagles Are 10.5 pt road dogs
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
nephillymike
A. They Have a Snowball's Chance in Hell
B. Their Chances are Slim and None and Slim is Out of Town on Vacation
C. They'll Win When Pigs Fly
D. They Will Win 19.8% of the Time
E. They will Win When Hell Freezes Over

The Answer Is D.

Historically, teams favored by 10.5 pts at home are a 4.05 to 1.00 favorite to win the game outright. 4.05/5.05 = 80.2% chance of Denver winning.

Sure .198 isn't over the Mendoza line, but it's a heck of a lot better that many think.

Add to the fact that the betters love Denver inflating the line and the short week vs. long week and I'm going out on a limb and say the Eagles have a 25% chance of winning the game.

OUTRIGHT!!

Shock the world!!

Denver's defense has given up a ton of points vs some bad offenses. Our offense is good. Denver will need to score 38 to win the game because our offense is going to light them up for at least 35.
mcnabbulous
I'm taking a very uncharacteristic trip to Vegas this weekend. I'll be placing money on our Birds if the line stays remotely close to where it's at.
make_it_rain
This one's definitely worth line shopping for. It opened at 11, and even with like 75% of the bets coming in on Denver the line quickly jumped the other way to 10.5. That being said, I've seen this line anywhere from 10.5 to 12.5, depending on the book. It could go to 13 towards the end of the week.

I'm not crazy about our chances to win this game, but with all the crazy shit that can happen in the NFL, I like them to cover, especially if you can find a juicy line.

Hell, you could go total degenerate and tease them up to +17.5 and then on the other leg tease the Saints down to -0.5 on Monday night, or tease New England up to +8 for the Sunday night game. Or put a 3 team card in if you can find a book willing to give you 9 to 5. Oh baby!

Disclaimer: I am a total degenerate mush, and in no way should this be construed as solid advice.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Sep 25 2013, 12:30 AM) *
Hell, you could go total degenerate and tease them up to +17.5 and then on the other leg tease the Saints down to -0.5 on Monday night, or tease New England up to +8 for the Sunday night game. Or put a 3 team card in if you can find a book willing to give you 9 to 5. Oh baby!


I'm showing 11.5/58 - I'd tease the birds to +18.5 and over 51. Take that to the bank! I'm a degenerate as well, but since I usually win, I don't have a problem.
nephillymike
For the benefit of all, Mikey the Moosh will refrain from wagering on this game.
Bocadelphia Eagles John
My money is staying in my pocket.

I predict I will not lose any money. But I will buy some beer !

Further, I predict the Eagles will get demolished. And I will get sh*t faced.

Money put to somewhat good use !

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BIRDS !
D Rock
I'd pick the iggles w/ that line.

In the end, we'll know early in the first. If the good Vick shows, we win this game. If the normal Vick shows, we haven't got a chance.

The D will need to manage 2-3 stops for us to win if Vick plays like he did in week 1 or 2.

I read somewhere that we're the 2nd worse defense in the league currently. The only team worse? Denver.
make_it_rain
QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 25 2013, 03:24 PM) *
I'd pick the iggles w/ that line.

In the end, we'll know early in the first. If the good Vick shows, we win this game. If the normal Vick shows, we haven't got a chance.

The D will need to manage 2-3 stops for us to win if Vick plays like he did in week 1 or 2.

I read somewhere that we're the 2nd worse defense in the league currently. The only team worse? Denver.


Denvers run defense is actually pretty good, at least 3 games into the season. Their pass defense is somehow worse than the Eagles, so let's hope Champ Bailey doesn't suit up on Sunday.

I believe the Foreskins have the worst defense in the league at this point, pushing borderline record territory.
Dreagon
The Broncos are 13-4 at home since 2011, so this is definitely going to be tough. On the other hand you guys are second in yards and eighth in points, so that's an awful big point spread.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Sep 25 2013, 08:34 PM) *
The Broncos are 13-4 at home since 2011, so this is definitely going to be tough. On the other hand you guys are second in yards and eighth in points, so that's an awful big point spread.



On efficiency, we are first in yards per 30 minutes with 567.0 way ahead of 2nd place DEN at 488.4 On pts per 30 minutes, DEN is way ahead at 42.6 pts per 30 minutes of possession (that is amazing) while we are 32.4 which is third behind GB 33.6 and Den.

All with a new offense which was totally foreign to most and having a -2 turnover margin.

We WILL put up points Sunday and plenty.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (make_it_rain @ Sep 25 2013, 04:46 PM) *
Denvers run defense is actually pretty good, at least 3 games into the season. Their pass defense is somehow worse than the Eagles, so let's hope Champ Bailey doesn't suit up on Sunday.

I believe the Foreskins have the worst defense in the league at this point, pushing borderline record territory.


Their run defense looks good because everyone they have played has to pass to play catch up and they know their pass defense blows......and even if bailey suits up he is not the Champ Bailey to fear anymore.....
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2013, 12:50 PM) *
Their run defense looks good because everyone they have played has to pass to play catch up and they know their pass defense blows......and even if bailey suits up he is not the Champ Bailey to fear anymore.....


Their run defense looks good because it's really really good. They've had the second fewest rushes attempted against them, but 2.3 yards per carry allowed speaks for itself.
koolaidluke
if the eagles can run against that, after there is so much game film on them, that will prove that the Eagles rushing attack is for real.

I don't think this is an ATG offense, but I do think it is an ATG running game.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 28 2013, 03:41 PM) *
Their run defense looks good because it's really really good. They've had the second fewest rushes attempted against them, but 2.3 yards per carry allowed speaks for itself.


they have played 3 bad teams.....the Ravens have no passing game anymore and the Giants and Raiders are terrible teams....the Eagles are the first team this "really good" defense will see.......I am certainly willing to wager that the eagles rush for a bundle against them...
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.