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koolaidluke
Pre Pre Post Caveat: No x's and o's in this post. I was a History major and I only do concepts, not brass tacks. Read a real analyst if that's what you want.

Pre Post Caveat: I do not want to get carried away after one game so nothing I type here is meant to be definitive. What I want to do is present what I think about Kelly's approach to offense is truly revolutionary after spending months researching and trying to understand exactly what Chip Kelly does and finally getting a chance to see at least some body of work at the NFL level. Perhaps more importantly, I want to define what exactly we mean when we talk about something being "revolutionary" at this level.

Chip Kelly is primarily known for two things: the read-option and "The Blur" offense. Neither of these things though are really a big deal. The Read Option has been a huge part of college offenses for well over a decade, long before Kelly came on the scene, and while Kelly's emphasis on speed between plays is unique, at the college level as much as the pro's, even there one needs to keep in mind that: A. The Patriots (admittedly inspired by Kelly) already ran a fast-break offense in the NFL last year and B. The focus on time between plays tells us nothing about what Kelly is doing to win the battle after the ball is actually snapped.

The best way to understand what Kelly is doing with his offense is to look at the two previous revolutions in NFL offenses: The Run and Shoot and the West Coast Offense.

The pure Run n' Shoot relied on using 4 wide receivers to spread the D out horizontally before attacking them vertically. Instead of treating the players like robots and having totally set piece plays, the receivers would get into their routes, see what their defender was taking away and then run to the open space. The QB would have to read the D as well and then make the throw. Not that many teams really adapted the Run n' Shoot and the pure, 4 receiver Run n' Shoot ended pretty quickly in favor of a 3 receiver, 1Tight End base personnel package. The last team to run what was officially described as a Run n' Shoot offense in the NFL was the 93 Atlanta Falcons. The 93 Falcons were QB'd by Jeff George who threw for over 4000 yards (that was still a big deal in the early 90s) and three Falcons receivers had over 1000 yards (being a 1000 yard receiver was also somewhat of a big deal at the time, at least in comparison to today). After the early 90s the run n' shoot sort of faded out due to the hits it subjected QBs to and the difficulty teams had running out of their base formations with it. In the early 00's, however, Peyton Manning and the man who introduced the Run n' Shoot to the NFL, Tom Moore, brought the Run N' Shoot concepts back with the Indianapolis Colts, this time mixed with a perpetual no-huddle. This led to the most successful offense in pro football over the course of a decade. Today the Bronco's and Lions both heavily use what is essentially a Run n' Shoot approach to offense and both have two of the most productive passing attacks in the league.

Overlapping with the emergence of the Run n' Shoot was Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense. How the West Coast offense came to be is somewhat convoluted but what the West Coast Offense essentially was was the systemization of short and intermediate passing concepts that had been around forever. While traditionally NFL passing games had attacked defenses vertically, the basic idea behind the West Coast Offense was to do the same horizontally. Whereas the Run n' Shoot gave receivers the freedom to attack holes in the secondary, the West Coast Offense relied on machine like precision on the part of the route runners, even if running the route called for took them right into the teeth of the defenses coverage. It would then be on the QB to see what the defense was taking away and then throw to the receiver who the defense, by design, had to leave uncovered. Instead of controlling the ball with the run, the horizontal pass game would be used to get first downs and suck the defense up for shots down the field. When the defense cheated outside to take away the short passing game, runs would be deployed to take advantage of the gaps in the front seven. Today, literally every single NFL offense makes heavy use of West Coast Offense concepts in their passing attacks, even if they don't use the terminology handed down from the Walsh coaching tree. In fact, the team that is probably the most effective example of a West Coast Offense today is the New England Patriots, whose OC, Josh McDaniels, is not a part of any of the West Coast Offense coaching trees or sub trees. Ironically, coaches like Andy Reid and Marty Morningwheg who ARE part of the Walsh tree have elected to deploy passing attacks more similar to the "Air Coryell" offense that the West Coast Offense evolved out of.

This boring rehash of things you already knew was necessary to highlight exactly what about these approaches was revolutionary. Both offensive approaches took a great deal of criticism initially for both real and imagined flaws but ultimately they found a great deal of success and are still successful today in various forms. And even though there are striking differences between both the Run N' Shoot and the West Coast Offense they have one extremely important similarity: they were both revolutions in professional football PASSING games. That is, these two offensive innovations only revolutionized the "air" portion of NFL offenses, leaving the "ground" portion the same way it was before.

And that is where Chip Kelly comes in. What I believe Chip is doing is essentially completing the NFL offensive revolution that Walsh and Moore started ~25 years ago. Just like the Run N' Shoot, Kelly aims to use a spread formation to open up space and then have his players attack the empty grass between the defenders. Like the West Coast Offense, Kelly has systemized a bunch of concepts that have already been around forever such as the read option, inside zone run and bubble screens. What is different about Kelly's innovations is that they are for the purpose of running the ball, not throwing it.

There has been a debate about whether or not Kelly's offense can be "stopped", and that debate has only grown more shrill since Monday night's game. But to even ask such a question is to completely miss the point. The result of the revolution in NFL passing games brought on by the Run n' Shoot and West Coast Offense was not to make NFL offenses unstoppable, but to cause NFL defenses to fundamentally alter the way that they defended the passing attacks of opposing teams. Similarly, the importance Kelly's innovations in the running game are not going to make NFL run defenses hapless punching bags, but rather they will make the way pro teams currently defend the run obsolete forcing a counter revolution in NFL rushing defenses.

The read-option is a decades old concept and the perpetual hurry up may yet prove to create more problems then it solves for the offense. But the innovations to rushing the football that Chip Kelly has introduced to the NFL will change the way the game is played in the league on BOTH sides of the ball.
koolaidluke
double post
make_it_rain
Zero
HobbEs
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 12 2013, 01:19 AM) *
Pre Pre Post Caveat: No x's and o's in this post. I was a History major and I only do concepts, not brass tacks. Read a real analyst if that's what you want.

Pre Post Caveat: I do not want to get carried away after one game so nothing I type here is meant to be definitive. What I want to do is present what I think about Kelly's approach to offense is truly revolutionary after spending months researching and trying to understand exactly what Chip Kelly does and finally getting a chance to see at least some body of work at the NFL level. Perhaps more importantly, I want to define what exactly we mean when we talk about something being "revolutionary" at this level.

Chip Kelly is primarily known for two things: the read-option and "The Blur" offense. Neither of these things though are really a big deal. The Read Option has been a huge part of college offenses for well over a decade, long before Kelly came on the scene, and while Kelly's emphasis on speed between plays is unique, at the college level as much as the pro's, even there one needs to keep in mind that: A. The Patriots (admittedly inspired by Kelly) already ran a fast-break offense in the NFL last year and B. The focus on time between plays tells us nothing about what Kelly is doing to win the battle after the ball is actually snapped.

The best way to understand what Kelly is doing with his offense is to look at the two previous revolutions in NFL offenses: The Run and Shoot and the West Coast Offense.

The pure Run n' Shoot relied on using 4 wide receivers to spread the D out horizontally before attacking them vertically. Instead of treating the players like robots and having totally set piece plays, the receivers would get into their routes, see what their defender was taking away and then run to the open space. The QB would have to read the D as well and then make the throw. Not that many teams really adapted the Run n' Shoot and the pure, 4 receiver Run n' Shoot ended pretty quickly in favor of a 3 receiver, 1Tight End base personnel package. The last team to run what was officially described as a Run n' Shoot offense in the NFL was the 93 Atlanta Falcons. The 93 Falcons were QB'd by Jeff George who threw for over 4000 yards (that was still a big deal in the early 90s) and three Falcons receivers had over 1000 yards (being a 1000 yard receiver was also somewhat of a big deal at the time, at least in comparison to today). After the early 90s the run n' shoot sort of faded out due to the hits it subjected QBs to and the difficulty teams had running out of their base formations with it. In the early 00's, however, Peyton Manning and the man who introduced the Run n' Shoot to the NFL, Tom Moore, brought the Run N' Shoot concepts back with the Indianapolis Colts, this time mixed with a perpetual no-huddle. This led to the most successful offense in pro football over the course of a decade. Today the Bronco's and Lions both heavily use what is essentially a Run n' Shoot approach to offense and both have two of the most productive passing attacks in the league.

Overlapping with the emergence of the Run n' Shoot was Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense. How the West Coast offense came to be is somewhat convoluted but what the West Coast Offense essentially was was the systemization of short and intermediate passing concepts that had been around forever. While traditionally NFL passing games had attacked defenses vertically, the basic idea behind the West Coast Offense was to do the same horizontally. Whereas the Run n' Shoot gave receivers the freedom to attack holes in the secondary, the West Coast Offense relied on machine like precision on the part of the route runners, even if running the route called for took them right into the teeth of the defenses coverage. It would then be on the QB to see what the defense was taking away and then throw to the receiver who the defense, by design, had to leave uncovered. Instead of controlling the ball with the run, the horizontal pass game would be used to get first downs and suck the defense up for shots down the field. When the defense cheated outside to take away the short passing game, runs would be deployed to take advantage of the gaps in the front seven. Today, literally every single NFL offense makes heavy use of West Coast Offense concepts in their passing attacks, even if they don't use the terminology handed down from the Walsh coaching tree. In fact, the team that is probably the most effective example of a West Coast Offense today is the New England Patriots, whose OC, Josh McDaniels, is not a part of any of the West Coast Offense coaching trees or sub trees. Ironically, coaches like Andy Reid and Marty Morningwheg who ARE part of the Walsh tree have elected to deploy passing attacks more similar to the "Air Coryell" offense that the West Coast Offense evolved out of.

This boring rehash of things you already knew was necessary to highlight exactly what about these approaches was revolutionary. Both offensive approaches took a great deal of criticism initially for both real and imagined flaws but ultimately they found a great deal of success and are still successful today in various forms. And even though there are striking differences between both the Run N' Shoot and the West Coast Offense they have one extremely important similarity: they were both revolutions in professional football PASSING games. That is, these two offensive innovations only revolutionized the "air" portion of NFL offenses, leaving the "ground" portion the same way it was before.

And that is where Chip Kelly comes in. What I believe Chip is doing is essentially completing the NFL offensive revolution that Walsh and Moore started ~25 years ago. Just like the Run N' Shoot, Kelly aims to use a spread formation to open up space and then have his players attack the empty grass between the defenders. Like the West Coast Offense, Kelly has systemized a bunch of concepts that have already been around forever such as the read option, inside zone run and bubble screens. What is different about Kelly's innovations is that they are for the purpose of running the ball, not throwing it.

There has been a debate about whether or not Kelly's offense can be "stopped", and that debate has only grown more shrill since Monday night's game. But to even ask such a question is to completely miss the point. The result of the revolution in NFL passing games brought on by the Run n' Shoot and West Coast Offense was not to make NFL offenses unstoppable, but to cause NFL defenses to fundamentally alter the way that they defended the passing attacks of opposing teams. Similarly, the importance Kelly's innovations in the running game are not going to make NFL run defenses hapless punching bags, but rather they will make the way pro teams currently defend the run obsolete forcing a counter revolution in NFL rushing defenses.

The read-option is a decades old concept and the perpetual hurry up may yet prove to create more problems then it solves for the offense. But the innovations to rushing the football that Chip Kelly has introduced to the NFL will change the way the game is played in the league on BOTH sides of the ball.


What?!
samaroo
KAL, i read it, and thought it was well put together. Your history major definitely showed! biggrin.gif

You make good points. I don't think we've seen anywhere near enough of this "experiment" yet to know anything definitive, but i think your theory is at least heading in the right direction. However this does eventually fall out, this is gonna be fun as hell to watch!

Bring on the Chargers!!!
Bez
Well , what ever ..... a good coach is a good coach and what ever innovation Kelly brings according to the inverse curve rule it wont take long for the competition to catch on and then what will be will be. I dont buy into much of any hyping , its simply sales pitching . Go Birds irregardless.
Zero
QUOTE (samaroo @ Sep 12 2013, 10:07 PM) *
KAL, i read it, and thought it was well put together. Your history major definitely showed! biggrin.gif

You make good points. I don't think we've seen anywhere near enough of this "experiment" yet to know anything definitive, but i think your theory is at least heading in the right direction. However this does eventually fall out, this is gonna be fun as hell to watch!

Bring on the Chargers!!!

I read it all too, Luke. And, I enjoyed it.
koolaidluke
Ah thank you.
Bez
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 13 2013, 08:32 AM) *
Ah thank you.
See , thing is , this has nothing to do with your efforts and such . If he does a good job for the Eagles I am fine with that , but I'm not one to put him on a pedestal. He got where he is not simply because he is a good coach , he got to where he is because the owner of Nike pumped oodles of money into the Ducks football program. Take a good look at the College ball teams out here in the Pacific region and you will see USC is waning and Stanford and the Ducks are now on equal footing . That is due to Nike support. So I think alot of this is hype being carried over from college level speculation which is by far wilder and biased than NFL predictions usually are.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Bez @ Sep 13 2013, 11:13 AM) *
See , thing is , this has nothing to do with your efforts and such . If he does a good job for the Eagles I am fine with that , but I'm not one to put him on a pedestal. He got where he is not simply because he is a good coach , he got to where he is because the owner of Nike pumped oodles of money into the Ducks football program. Take a good look at the College ball teams out here in the Pacific region and you will see USC is waning and Stanford and the Ducks are now on equal footing . That is due to Nike support. So I think alot of this is hype being carried over from college level speculation which is by far wilder and biased than NFL predictions usually are.

While I agree that Nike has helped with the Oregon program, Chip's Ducks regularly out performed their recruiting rankings. Oregon itself has a pedestrian number of D1 players in the state itself.

The point being that he clearly has an ability to identify talent (when other's may not have) and outperform teams with more on-paper talent.
koolaidluke
Oregon teams never had a lot of talent. Or, in so far as they had talent it was talent that would have struggled in most other systems.

The Olines Oregon had were always awful. The Eagles have one of the better Olines in the league and it will be interesting to see how effective Kelly's approach is when he actually has talented players to execute it.
Bez
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 13 2013, 12:29 PM) *
While I agree that Nike has helped with the Oregon program, Chip's Ducks regularly out performed their recruiting rankings. Oregon itself has a pedestrian number of D1 players in the state itself.

The point being that he clearly has an ability to identify talent (when other's may not have) and outperform teams with more on-paper talent.
I seem to recall something to do with foul play within the Ducks recruiting and I cant argue with rankings . All I know is Stanford and Oregon got a shitload of money Harbaugh and Kelly and things changed. All of the sudden the anointing oil from the local stations to the national college broadcasters had their lips on these two teams asses and the Oregon players started acting like they do at USC. I realize the way I look at things and the way many of you is different , but some of it I think has to do with what details we are looking at. I tend to take the whole experience of the game in and many of you are much more focused on stats and breaking down things on the field . And you do that quite well and that makes this board interesting to read. Now Sonny Dykes wants to make Cal a powerhouse and to even watch games on TV you have to have the most expensive packages to get PAC 12 network. So I try to enjoy what I can and at least the NFL has done a few things to make dynasties harder to establish by simply buying them. I think its easier to root for a team that is an underdog or one that is not in your hometown. The 49r revival lacks a feel good story line , if you cant win with class its not worth it. Go Eagles.
nephillymike
Good read KAL.

Thanks for posting it.

So Chip is reinventing the run game?

It is amazing to see how much space there is to run to out there.

My favorite formation?

WR TE OT wide left
LG, OC, RG the o-line
RB offset beind QB who is in the shotgun
OT, WR, WR wide right.

And just to kick the def coord when he's down, both of our OT's played TE in college, and one of them played QB in college!!!. How the hell do you defend that??

That poor DC from SD hasn't slept all week. He's prolly lying oon his psychologists sofa as we speak
Birdman420
good read KAL I like your point of view, it was very well thought out.

I agree with mike about the OT's being out with the WR's....that formation is going to cause havok
mcnabbulous
Awesome Shanahan quote:

Mike Shanahan on @ESPNRadio980 on @Eagles "We knew exactly what they were going to do. That was the worst part of it." #Redskins
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 13 2013, 05:37 PM) *
Awesome Shanahan quote:

Mike Shanahan on @ESPNRadio980 on @Eagles "We knew exactly what they were going to do. That was the worst part of it." #Redskins


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

If the worst thing about the Chip Kelly era is we have to hear about how 'predictable' he is by a coach who just got stomped, then cheers! Better than previous years.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 13 2013, 10:37 PM) *
Awesome Shanahan quote:

Mike Shanahan on @ESPNRadio980 on @Eagles "We knew exactly what they were going to do. That was the worst part of it." #Redskins

That guy from "Fishduck" says the same thing.

Kelly is broadcasting exactly what he's doing. They still can't stop it. It's like basic cpu programing: "If/Then."

Pick your poison, but it'll be at least a while until teams can figure out how to effectively defense all available options.

Whoever leads THAT revolution, will be akin to Buddy's breaking out the 46 D.

It'll be not only fun to watch, but interesting to see how long it takes the rest of the offensive coordinators around the league to jack the methodology.

As iggle fans, we're all so dam sick of the WCO having been stuck with it since RayBob/GruDog.

This shit is fun!!!!
D Rock
And KUDOS to Lurie for bringing it here first.
koolaidluke
QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 13 2013, 07:42 PM) *
Pick your poison, but it'll be at least a while until teams can figure out how to effectively defense all available options.


You know what the German military in it's heyday used to say? If you defend everything you defend nothing.

One of the keys to slowing down the Eagles is going to be to not trying to take away everything. Give the Eagles offense something but take away everything else.
Chip Kelly
Didn't want to start a new thread, so I'll put this here. A great article on Kelly's offense:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle...p-kelly-offense
xsv
Holy crap, I must have feel asleep halfway through reading that.

What year is it?
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