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nephillymike
I found this article to be very interesting. Seems like top prospects arent all that they're thought to be.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992...p-mlb-prospects

Just the designations of success and failure of the study speaks volumes to me. Average is considered a success, whereas for the NFL, the grade level of success is thought to be higher.

So the chances of a top 100 prospect outperforming an above average MLB isn't much.

Zero
Shit. I thought this was a linebacker post. sad.gif
samaroo
No matter what a MLB is worth to the Phillies, it should be damn near priceless to the Birds! tongue.gif
nephillymike
I'll cut thru the math and sumarize it for yuz:

The Phils top two prospects are Jesse Biddle at #57 and the other pitcher Martin at #76.

The odds of these pitchers major league careers assessment is as follows, based on the study

Both are very poor or below average = 68% (83% x 82%)
Both are good or better = 2%
One is good or better, one is average = 1%
One is average, one is very poor or below average = 14%
One is good or better, one is very poor or below average = 15%

So, if I'm the Phils, and I'm looking to get a good Major league OF like Hunter Pence, I offer my two highest prospects to do that.

I consider myself a "winner" of the trade, as long as Pence plays well for me and that I didn't give away too much. "Too much" for me is defined as giving up two guys who turn out to be good or better or I'll stretch it even to say that if one is good or better and one is average that that is a loss (even though it really isn't b/c I am trying to win now and the opportunity of now I'm willing to give ups more now and forego future gain, but let's be conservative and say I lose in that situation). Pence's track record gives me comfort to know he'll play at a good level for us, so I'm OK there. My lose chances are the 2% that both are good or better plus the 1% that one is good or better and one is average. So just based on the odds, I have a 3% chance to lose this trade based on what I gave up. Maybe double it, to account for the chance that Pence plays poorly and we're up to 6% chance of failure. In reality, you would need to account for the extra salary I have to pay Pence and the opportunity costs of foregone acquisitions that would cost me, but with the Phils bankroll that's a lesser issue.

So if someone offers us a good or better player for our best two prospects, do you do it (assuming we're in contention). Survey says 94% - 6% make the deal.

Zero
Doesn't your brain ever get tied ... like tongue tied? laugh.gif
mcnabbulous
Thanks, Mikey.

I think the financial/age element to your analysis is vastly undervalued. The trade for Pence made us older, more expensive, and only marginally better.

Additionally, there is the element of WAR. How much value does a "good" corner outfielder really bring to a 40 man roster? As I've said time and time again, we had the best record in baseball that year. Adding Pence only marginally increased our chances of winning the WS.
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