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Full Version: Some macaroni and gravy for Mikey Numbers
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Zero
Yo, the boys from Vegas have thrown their hat into the ring. Here's what they're dealin' ...
Oddsmakers: LJ the Favorite To Go No. 4
Read it and weep.
iggleslover49
I can see that scenario, but only if Dion is gone. He's labeled as the 3rd best, but he's also said to be the most athletic which fits our scheme(???)
nephillymike
I've seen that Johnson has crept up the board.

If it's Joeckel, then Fisher, then Floyd, that would leave four prospects who are better than Johnson: Jordan, Milliner, Warmack and Lotulelei. All three rating services have Jordan Milliner and Warmack rated higher and two of the three have Lotulelei rated higher. Don't get me wrong, Johnson is a good prospect, but he's 8th when 3,4,6,and 7 are all available, all at positions of need.

There's a thing called the coat tail effect. It's when prospects who play the same position as very higly rated prospects have inflated value because of the position association. It causes a "run" on a position, when many times it's unwarranted. Johnson has played little OT in his career. As such you don't know how high his ceiling is and if he'll ever develop into the player Joeckel or Fisher is. At #4, I'd prefer to take someone who's played his spot for longer. The former QB turned OT is a nice story. I prefer boring and reliable. If Fisher is gone, give me Miliner, Warmack or Star. Not in the mood for needing to develop a guy I pick 4th. I'd prefer ready to play with plenty of experience.

I wouldn't be Danny Watkins' upset. (Gotta love us taking the 82nd best player with that pick but thank God Jeffrey told us that Howie had nothing to do with it despite me remembering him crowing about the pick on sports talk the next few days) But I'd be disappointed. Now if we drop to 8th, get a pick and he's still there at 8, then I'm OK with it. At 4, no thanks.
Zero
Couldn't agree more. I like Johnson's upside but it's still only upside. I've been very up and down with the draft this year - I feel almost like a horny teenager sometimes - but I too believe they need to draft a guy who has proven himself. Some say that Fisher doesn't pass that test coming from a lesser conference. I realize that every player has their drawbacks and everything is magnified this time of year. OT isn't a WOW pick but I'd be OK with it even if it is Johnson - I'll be crossing a lot of fingers and toes though. All said and done I'd rather them take the BPA and hope that player is on the defensive side of the ball because that's where they need the most help. More than ever they can't get cute. Trust your scouting and your analysis. I'm glad they have Gamble and Donahoe in the fold.
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