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Here's the recent history of the #4 pick:

2012 - Matt Kalil, OT, USC, Vikings
2011- A.J. Green, WR, Georgia, Bengals
2010 - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma, Redskins
2009 - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest, Seahawks
2008 - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas, Raiders
2007 - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson, Buccaneers
2006 - D'Brickashaw, Ferguson, OT, Virginia, Jets
2005 - Cedric Benson, RB, Texas, Bears
2004 - Phillip Rivers, QB, NC, State, Giants
2003 - Dewayne Robertson, DT, Kentucky, Jets

Looking at this list it's hard to be adamant about not trading down because there's such a mix of success. We look at all the scouting reports and mock drafts, we see that players were successful in college but then we see that doesn't always translate to success in the NFL.

As the author points out, 3 of the 5 successes here were OT. There's lies, damn lies and statistics but that would seem to point to a move down or an OT.

So, do you put your money on one player or increase the odds and split on two or three from a trade down?

I would think that all except for Curry, Adams and Robertson were successes?

Who did he/you list as the successes?
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 14 2013, 06:56 AM) *
I would think that all except for Curry, Adams and Robertson were successes?

Who did he/you list as the successes?

Not me, I'm sitting President of DKD. Here's from the link:
As you'll see, the pick is far from a sure thing. Dewayne Robertson earned the dubious distinction of being named #8 on the Jets all time draft bust list by GGN. Cedric Benson was a huge bust for the Bears, but did have a couple decent seasons later in his career with the Bengals. Still not close to being worth where he was picked. Gaines Adams wasn't a having a great career before he surprisingly died in January 2010, just a few months after the Bears traded a 2nd round pick for him.The #4 pick has not been kind to the Bears in the last decade.

Darren McFadden is a bust. He's had just one season over 800 yards in his career. Aaron Curry, who was proclaimed to be the safest pick of the 2009 draft was a clear bust as well.

So of the last 10 players selected at #4, half have been busts. However, the hits have been notable.

Of the 5 non-busts, 4 have been Pro Bowlers and the one who hasn't, Matt Kalil, was named as an alternate last season (his rookie year). He certainly seems to be well on his way to star status. Combined, those 5 non busts have 10 Pro Bowls between them.

So, the #4 pick has been "boom or bust" to say the least. However, if you wanted to look at one potentially telling thing, of the 5 non-busts, 3 are offensive tackles.

I'm in the process of finalizing the draft compilation with changes that reflect Pro Day adjustments.

Based on that, here is the revised top 20 rankings of the players this year. Take a look and see where you would be comfortable trading down to, assuming they get picked in the order ranked:

1, Joeckel
2. Fisher
3. Jordan
4. Milliner
5. Floyd
6. Warmack
7. Lotulelei
8. L. Johnson
9. Ansah
10. Mingo
11. Richardson
12. Cooper
13. Werner
14. Jones
15. Austin
16. Vaccaro
17. G. Smith
18. Patterson
19. Eifert
20. S. Williams.

Sure, because of position premiums/discounts, Smith will be drafted higher and Warmack/Cooper lower, but other than that, this should be close to the range at where they come off the board.

So assume for instance, if we move down to 8, we won't get any of the top 7.

Where do you feel comfortable? For me, on this list, I have to be top 7. From 8 down, there is a difference in talent/risk that I'd prefer to avoid. I likely sit where I am at #4, unless both OT and Lotulelei are gone 1-3, then I look for a dance partner to move to 7. My preference at #4 is Fisher, Joeckel, Lotulelei and then I group 4-7 at the same level.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 14 2013, 07:18 AM) *
My preference at #4 is Fisher, Joeckel, Lotulelei

I agree. I'd love to be able to move down, get an additional second rounder and end up taking Lotulelei, Johnson or another player of that level. Johson or Lotullelei would be my preference. Lotulelei may slide because of his heart issue and Johnson should be available in that range.
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 14 2013, 06:56 AM) *
I would think that all except for Curry, Adams and Robertson were successes?

Who did he/you list as the successes?

McFadden has been less than successful. Cedric Benson was a bust for the Bears.
Just another example of why god hates the eagles. The first top 5 pick in over a decade, and arguably the weakest draft class in the same time period. If the first three teams pick right (or wrong), it could seriously hurt us. I just don't see us getting any good trades out of this spot if everything goes not-according-to-plan.
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