Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: The Best Draft Success Data Articles I've Seen
Eagles Forum > Philadelphia Eagles Message Board > Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion
nephillymike
First check out this article which lists the success of draft picks by drafting slots and position:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Diggin...babilities.html

Summary answers questions some have had and asked about success/failure by position:

In 16 years of data, sorted by position in decreasing order of probability of 5 yr starters for those drafted in slots 1-13, for those seven positions that have prospects rated in top 13. The # is the total picks in 1-13 by position:

Pos....#......%5 yr start
OG....3..........100%
OT....21.........94%
LB....24..........90%
DE....33.........78%
CB....21.........70%
QB....27.........68%
DT....18.........63%

What about the "home run" factor by position? Same positions, rated in decreasing order of times the drafted player made 3 or more Pro Bowls. PB only awarded if he was selected for the PB, NOT an injury replacement (Sorry DMAC). Also added the % of getting an All Pro selection (ie all NFL)

Pos.....% 3+PB...%1 AllPro
OT........48%..........62%
LB.........33%.........42%
DT........33%..........28%
OG........33%...........0% (small sample, only 3 selected in top 13)
QB........22%...........4%
DE........21%...........24%

So on both the cover your ass theory (ie avoid non 5 yr starters) and the home run theory, looks like OT, LB and OG (with small sample) are the best choices. So if we're thinking about a QB, OT, LB or OG, here's how they compare:

Position...%5yrstart..%3+xPB..%1AllPro
OG...........100%........33%..........0%
OT.............94%........48%.........62%
LB.............90%........33%..........42%
QB............68%........22%............4%

Give me the OT and I'll sleep easy.


And then there's this one on the success/failures of drafts by team adjusted for number of picks and slots of picks

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Studyi...-NFL-Teams.html

Eagles are below average, producing 2 less 5 yr starters than we should have. Packers and Steelers are gods, getting 9 more 5 yr starters than expected.

Eyrie
So those of us advocating a T at #4 (or in DRock's case, G) know what we're talking about and those wanting a QB are willing to roll the dice biggrin.gif
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Apr 5 2013, 11:00 PM) *
Give me the OT and I'll sleep easy.

So if Fisher and Joekel are gone we go for Jordan?

BTW, I wonder if teams use this kind of analysis. It sounds like a Kelly Institute study.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Zero @ Apr 6 2013, 05:55 AM) *
So if Fisher and Joekel are gone we go for Jordan?

BTW, I wonder if teams use this kind of analysis. It sounds like a Kelly Institute study.



Yes, it would seem so.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.
Invision Power Board © 2001-2017 Invision Power Services, Inc.