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Jeromesfriend
Hey guys, posted this on another site. My results are highly debatable so... Unleash hell!

http://section215.com/2013/03/26/projectin...an-expectation/

[Edit By Admin - The result is 5-11]
nephillymike
Mikey Numbers always likes a lot of numbers!!

Good stuff.

With a standard error of +/- 2.4 wins, I question its reliability.

If I understand the study, you predict 5 wins with a range of 2.6-7.4 being within one standard deviation. Am I reading it right?

Is so, I think the large standard deviation relative to the definition of good and bad seasons is too large to be reliable.

For instance a 3 win season is a disgrace while a 7 win season is a worthy building block. I think you would need much more narrow SD to make it meaningful in a 16 game NFL season.

BTW, I read the "about" paragraph. That's good parenting, bringing up the kid to hate the Cowboys. My Dad grew to be a Cowboys fan late in his life, much to my shame. And he was obnoxious. Well, my first baby was a girl (baby is a Freshman in college now!). When she was just starting to talk, I would point at my Dad and say Cowboys Stink. It was always cute when she would see him and say Cowboys stink. One day, I'm home and someone knocks on the door and I say to my daughter, who is it? She responds "Cowboys Stink". I then realized she thought my Dad's name was Cowboys Stink!! A proud parenting moment it was. I took my time teaching her otherwise!
Jeromesfriend
Haha, that's a great story. Yeah, I have to thank my parents for a lot of my hatred towards the Cowboys. I hope I can sustain it. There was a lot more to hate when they were winning (and arrogant about it), but they haven't been doing much of that lately.

You're right. A smaller SD would be better. But the results are still interesting. I was actually surprised the strength of the correlation was as high as it was. There is so much variation in a football team (in a season!) from one season to the next. I wonder if this expectation formula is better at projecting results from one game to the next, within the same season. Hmm.
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