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D Rock
Now he's a plagiarist too.

I knew he was reading "my stuff."

My stolen work

Only difference? He pretends to know what Chip is thinking. Although Feigns some self deprecation at the end.

Lawlor is a Hack.

cool.gif
mcnabbulous
I read that earlier and thought of you throughout. I always find it odd when he plays the "what are they thinking" card. As if anyone has any clue.

I value his opinion about as much as any of those other guys out there. Very little.
Reality Fan
I always thought that......a fan like us with an outlet.......but hey...he was "trained by an NFL scout"...what a load of shit.......god bless him though....he has fooled enough people to make a living writing about the game he loves...or stealing other peoples thoughts about the team he loves...hahahaha

nephillymike
Devil's Advocate, partially taken from Mike Miss:

Assume this scenario in the upcoming 2013 and 2014 seasons, all of which are likely IMO:

1. We don't draft G. Smith at #4 and he goes to Jax, Oak, Ari or Buf
2. We pick the best available and that guy does well for us, starting in year one and projects good going forward
3. Mike Vick is still Mike Vick. Declining raw aging talent, bad decisions still plaque his game
4. Foles loses the starting job to Vick and after watching Kelly's offense, it emphasizes mobility more than suits Foles
5. Foles either stays as a bench player or is cut/traded before the '14 season (could be this offseason or next)
6. Our front office and coaches prove they have a clue, and our team improves to 7-9 or better.
7. As such our draft spot next year is somewhere between 14-19.
8. The QB draft next year is good, but not as good as expected after another year of seasoning.3QB's are top 10 worthy.
9. Of those top three, whoever they are, only two would fit our system.
10. Two teams drafting in the top five next year need QB's, like bottom five teams tend to need.
11. The FA QB next offseason is similar to this one's, no franchise types available
====================================================================

How to get one of those two guys in next year's draft who fit our needs?

Well, our best case in terms of getting one, is that we did just OK this year and got the 14th 2014 draft slot AND the mix of the teams needing QB's next year is such that if we get to pick #5 we will likely get one of the two we need.

Our "worst" case is we did pretty damn well, maybe 9-7, 10-6 and we're drafting out of the 19th slot in 2014, AND, the mix of who needs a QB in the top five are such that we need to get to #3 to get one of the two we need.

What would be the costs to acquire the QB in the draft next year under these scenarios? Very, very expensive.

From best case to worst case (per the trade value chart):

#1. We're at #14 and need to get to #5. We need 600 points:

We give up our '14 1st rounder at #14, and '14's 2nd and 3rd rounder and we get the #5 pick plus a 5th rounder in '14. Basically when you net it out we give up a 2nd and 3rd for a 5th, all in the 2014 draft.

#2 We're at #19 and need to get to #5. We need 825 points:

We give up our '14 1st rounder at #19, and '14's 2nd rounder and our 2nd rounder in '15 for the #5 pick of the draft. Basically when you net it out we give up two 2nds.

#3 We're at #14 and need to get to #3. We need 1100 points:

We give up our '14 first rounder at #14, our 4th round pick in '14 AND our 2015 1st round pick for the #3 pick of the draft.

#4. We're at #19 and need to move up to #3. We need 1325 points:

We give up our '14 first rounder at #19, our 2nd round pick in '14 AND our 2015 1st round pick and we get back a 4th round pick for the #3 pick of the draft.

If you think that Howie and Chip have any clue at all, this is the likely draft range we'll be in and if you think the QB class of next year is anything like they say, that's where they will go.

So now, your options are pass on Smith now, draft a nice starter at another position of need and find a trading partner and pay the piper heftily next year,

OR

Draft Smith now, coach him up for a year and sign that postion of need you would have drafted as a FA (Volmer, Long) and then have a Geno Smith with one year of combined bench and playing experience for 2014.

THIS is the real decision that needs to be made. Is Geno Smith in year 2 capable of being your franchise QB and if not, will you be OK with giving up the things needed to get a shot at one of those QB's in the 2014 draft. BTW, 2014 have no Lucks in it either but are a much better crop.

IBM presents, YOU make the call...............................

D Rock
There are any number of scenarios that can get us back into the top 5 to draft our QB next year including trading our mid round pick and the following year's 1st rounder. You're never limitted to that year's picks as your only currency.

Look what the foreskinz did to get RG3.

You make you move to get your guy when you identify him. You don't reach on a guy you're luke warm on because you fear not having the ammo to get the guy you really like next year. Use this year to build the rest of the team.

If Foles wins out, you're set. Maybe they like a mid/late round guy this year like Matt Scott. Use this year to get the rest of the roster going in the right direction.
mcnabbulous
I agree that we should only draft Smith if the brass has identified him as their guy. Then again, they've surely formed some opinions on the next crop of guys, so that could shape things too.

As I said last year when the skins moved up for Griffin, you can't spend too much to acquire a guy you believe will be a franchise QB. The bigger problem isn't the ammunition to move up, but the competition to actually get that guy, as opposed to another team who is in better draft position.

Last year is a perfect example. I think it's clear that Andy wanted RGIII. We simply had no chance to compete with some of those other teams to move up and grab him.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 17 2013, 07:16 PM) *
I agree that we should only draft Smith if the brass has identified him as their guy. Then again, they've surely formed some opinions on the next crop of guys, so that could shape things too.

As I said last year when the skins moved up for Griffin, you can't spend too much to acquire a guy you believe will be a franchise QB. The bigger problem isn't the ammunition to move up, but the competition to actually get that guy, as opposed to another team who is in better draft position.

Last year is a perfect example. I think it's clear that Andy wanted RGIII. We simply had no chance to compete with some of those other teams to move up and grab him.

Or perhaps we just didn't have the willingness to pay the price.

As you say, if you've identified your guy . . . you almost CAN'T overpay. You gotta be willing to pay what it'll cost.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 02:23 PM) *
Or perhaps we just didn't have the willingness to pay the price.

As you say, if you've identified your guy . . . you almost CAN'T overpay. You gotta be willing to pay what it'll cost.


Certainly it's possible that what would have been required to outbid the Skins was more than our FO was willing to dole out to appease a lame duck coach. Point is, it's obvious the Skins made the right call. Hopefully we are able to get our guy the next time they've identified him.
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 17 2013, 02:35 PM) *
Certainly it's possible that what would have been required to outbid the Skins was more than our FO was willing to dole out to appease a lame duck coach. Point is, it's obvious the Skins made the right call. Hopefully we are able to get our guy the next time they've identified him.


http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-11081694

I don't think it's obvious the Skins made the right call. How long does RG3 need to play at a PB level to justify the move? What if his smallish frame cant take the pounding over time and he becomes a pocket only passer, or a Vick like oft injured non pocket guy. How much would thoe three 1st round and one 2nd have contributed?

The article above has two different blockbuster trades to move up to get 1st round QB's.

The Skins gave up 4130 pts to get 2600
The Giants gave up 3089 to get 3000.

One was reasonable, one not. However, you make a good point. My trade costs in the scenarios I show could be way low. If the Skins "set the market" then add another 1st round pick to the cost!!
mcnabbulous
Even if RGIII never scrambles again, I think his actual passing ability is solid enough to thrive. Comparing him to Vick isn't relevant, IMO.

I think Griffin will be a star for a long time. Point charts mean virtually nothing to me. Frankly, even if Griffin tragically never played again, I'd say the trade was the right decision because they identified him to be exactly what he is. A star QB. Sometimes what happens next can't be controlled.
D Rock
His passing ability looks so stronge largely because of the threat he is to run. Guys are running wide open and pass rushers are hesitant. Remove the threat to run and he'll not have nearly as easy a time throwing the ball.

I said in January....

"Leave it to Shanny to render him 'damaged goods' in one year."

At least they got a playoff win out of it. They won't see that again for a while. My money is on RG3 coming way down back to earth next season. Not unlike cam newton in year 2.
Zero
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 02:09 PM) *
Maybe they like a mid/late round guy this year like Matt Scott. Use this year to get the rest of the roster going in the right direction.

This is my point. If everyone thinks the Eagles will go for Smith someone may pay to trade spots and the Eagles may really want someone later who they can groom for a year.
mcnabbulous
Griffin is a much better passer than Newton.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 17 2013, 08:28 PM) *
Griffin is a much better passer than Newton.

No question. But it remains to be seen what he'll look like as a passer once the threat to run is gone or at least significantly lessoned. (thnx shanny)
Phits
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 03:19 PM) *
Not unlike cam newton in year 2.

Cam actually had a pretty good sophomore season, especially for a team with nothing going for it. His numbers were virtually the same (3800+ yards passing, 700+ rushing). The big difference for the Panthers this past season is that Stewart's injuries kept him out of the lineup and he went from a potential 1000 yard back to sub 400. That team doesn't have the talent to compete, nor the front office to mold a winning franchise.
Phits
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 17 2013, 03:28 PM) *
Griffin is a much better passer than Newton.

Certainly, but Cam has the build to take the pounding. RG3 not so much.
D Rock
QUOTE (Phits @ Mar 17 2013, 10:50 PM) *
Certainly, but Cam has the build to take the pounding. RG3 not so much.

No doubt.

I don't think what Shanny did to RG3 this January can be overstated. IF he comes back fully. He's not built to take the punishment of a running QB like Cam is.

I have similar worries about Geno who's not that big at 6'2" 210ish.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 10:49 PM) *
No doubt.

I don't think what Shanny did to RG3 this January can be overstated. IF he comes back fully. He's not built to take the punishment of a running QB like Cam is.

I have similar worries about Geno who's not that big at 6'2" 210ish.

While I think Shanny unnecessarily abused him, I think RGIII (and Geno) have passing abilities that will allow them to not be labeled "running QB's". Unlike Cam, who is very dependent on his athletic ability, because he's still so raw as a passer.

Like I said, if RGIII becomes a post-2003 Donovan, I still think he'll strive as a passer.
D Rock
We'll have to wait and see. From what I saw, he was hitting wide open guys up the seam and the deep middle, areas of the field opened up by the effective play fakes and attention D's had to pay to the run/option.

You take away that aspect of their Offense, and those windows close significantly.

He's got a great arm, no doubt. But I don't think you can overstate what the option/run game did for opening up the passing game or it's effect on RG3s results. Render him 1 dimensional and it's a whole different ballgame.
Phits
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 18 2013, 02:27 PM) *
He's got a great arm, no doubt. But I don't think you can overstate what the option/run game did for opening up the passing game or it's effect on RG3s results. Render him 1 dimensional and it's a whole different ballgame.

Not to mention the great RB play that he got from his fellow rookie. It's not a knock against RG3, it's just the truth. Not every QB can excel in that type of scenario, it's a testament to his abilities. His x-factor seems to be his athletic ability. Some QB's it's their field vision, others have a laser for an arm. Unfortunately for our division, he seems to have it all. It remains to be seen whether they are dependent on one another.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Phits @ Mar 19 2013, 01:28 PM) *
Not to mention the great RB play that he got from his fellow rookie. It's not a knock against RG3, it's just the truth. Not every QB can excel in that type of scenario, it's a testament to his abilities. His x-factor seems to be his athletic ability. Some QB's it's their field vision, others have a laser for an arm. Unfortunately for our division, he seems to have it all. It remains to be seen whether they are dependent on one another.


I tend to think the great RB play was more a product of the threat of RGIII and not the other way around.
Zero
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 19 2013, 01:35 PM) *
I tend to think the great RB play was more a product of the threat of RGIII and not the other way around.

This and good scheming to get this.
GQSmooth
Funny to me Lawlor subtweets (lack of a better word) this thread at the end of his article today.
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