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nephillymike
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/post/_/id/...o-smith-pro-day

Jaws says top 10. Kid seems pretty calm cool and collected.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 16 2013, 07:00 PM) *
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/post/_/id/...o-smith-pro-day

Jaws says top 10. Kid seems pretty calm cool and collected.

Where do you value "pro days" when it comes to QB evaluation?
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 06:19 PM) *
Where do you value "pro days" when it comes to QB evaluation?


I think the results (completion %) are less important than the ability to make the throws at an NFL level. It appears he was more than capable, and the accuracy was a nice bonus.

At minimum, he verified that he has an NFL arm. And it sounds like he proved he can throw balls accurately down the field, although I think his college tape had already proven that.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 06:19 PM) *
Where do you value "pro days" when it comes to QB evaluation?



I'm no scout. Most years, you may remember, I'll do a compilation of ratings and rankings from various people who do scout to give us an idea of who is thought to be the best and who may be a good pick when we're on the clock.

Furthermore, I'm not a college football junkie and watch only a few games a year and haven't seen any of Smith's games this year.

That all being said, if I could put values on evaluation opportunities, I would say roughly 70% game tape, 20% combine/pro day workouts and 10% upside evaluation.

Why I think combine and pro days do have relevance is because a QB, because of scheme or because of other talent or lack thereof at other positions, may not have the opportunity to display some of the things the NFL may be looking for. So maybe a bad line, slow possession type WR's or whatever, may not give a QB the opportunity to throw the longer throws as often as the scouts would like to have seen. Have him throw 20 of those passes in the combine or pro day and it could be obvious that he can or can't make that throw.

From what we've seen, pre combine/pro day, Smith was rated a mid first rounder, somewhere 12-26. Has his stock risen disproportionately based on his combine/pro day? Yes. But since he didn't run much in college, his 40 speed was useful info. Since he threw so many short passes in college, the fact he did so well at pro day with the deep ball was important to know. So while his move to top five may be a bit much, some of his movement up the board is warranted and understandable IMO

What would your % breakdown be among game tape, combine/pro day and upside be?
Dreagon
I don't know what to tell you guys about Smith. On the one hand, I think he's going to go pretty high in the first round. On the other hand, I don't know if he would have even made it in the first round against last year's crop of QB's.

And that's the real conundrum here. When you are talking about using a top five pick, you are talking about going after an RG3 or Luck. Only there isn't a QB of that caliber this draft. I know Smith is the best available, but are you going to get him and be regretting it when next years crop of QB's enter the draft, and you can get the equivalent or better in the top fifteen?
Phits
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Mar 16 2013, 09:27 PM) *
On the other hand, I don't know if he would have even made it in the first round against last year's crop of QB's.

Russell Wilson (arguably the best QB in last season's crop) went in the 3rd round. You just don't know, until you know....you know tongue.gif
Dreagon
QUOTE (Phits @ Mar 16 2013, 09:39 PM) *
Russell Wilson (arguably the best QB in last season's crop) went in the 3rd round. You just don't know, until you know....you know tongue.gif


Wilson was the sixth QB taken, and four of those six ended the season as starters. One is backing up Peyton Manning, and one was a typical Cleveland Browns fiasco. Looking at it again, I'm still not sure Smith would go in the first round if pitted against last years crop. I'm just saying, when you have the fourth pick, you want to take a "fourth pick caliber" player...not necessarily the best QB in a weak class of QBs.
Eyrie
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Mar 17 2013, 03:02 AM) *
Wilson was the sixth QB taken, and four of those six ended the season as starters. One is backing up Peyton Manning, and one was a typical Cleveland Browns fiasco. Looking at it again, I'm still not sure Smith would go in the first round if pitted against last years crop. I'm just saying, when you have the fourth pick, you want to take a "fourth pick caliber" player...not necessarily the best QB in a weak class of QBs.

Agreed - there is no point on reaching to fill a need.
mcnabbulous
QB's almost always get drafted above grade. Wilson dropped for one reason and one reason only. Size. If he was 6'2", he's a sure fire first rounder.

I, admittedly, thought his size would be prohibitive to success.

He's not even 6 foot. His dropping had nothing to do with people doubting his skills.
Phits
Hindsight is 20/20. The Skinz were heavily criticized for betting the farm on RG3, as was Pete Carroll for drafting a QB when he already picked up Flynn in the off-season and had Jackson on the roster. As a matter of fact, Wilson was touted as a project.

Drafting the BPA has it's limitations, in that you need to draft the BPA for your team/scheme. If our FO feels that Geno's skill set is an ideal fit for the type of offense that Chip wants to run taking him at #4 is a no-brainer, especially considering he isn't likely to be there at #35.
Zero
QUOTE (Phits @ Mar 17 2013, 10:07 AM) *
If our FO feels that Geno's skill set is an ideal fit for the type of offense that Chip wants to run taking him at #4 is a no-brainer, especially considering he isn't likely to be there at #35.

And that's the bottom line.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 17 2013, 12:49 AM) *
I think the results (completion %) are less important than the ability to make the throws at an NFL level. It appears he was more than capable, and the accuracy was a nice bonus.

At minimum, he verified that he has an NFL arm. And it sounds like he proved he can throw balls accurately down the field, although I think his college tape had already proven that.

But that minimum is nothing. The tape has already shown the arm. It's his greatest asset according to all. My point is that you've learned nothing knew at a QBs pro day. I'm not talking bout geno. But all QBs.

nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 12:00 PM) *
But that minimum is nothing. The tape has already shown the arm. It's his greatest asset according to all. My point is that you've learned nothing knew at a QBs pro day. I'm not talking bout geno. But all QBs.


What about my question to you D above??
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 17 2013, 06:03 PM) *
What about my question to you D above??

75% game film. 5% combine/pro day. 20% psych (interview, coaches/teammates input, background checks).

The combines and pro days are not "real word" applications of the skill set. Some guys run differently in underwear than football gear. It's easy to throw vs. imaginary corners and pass rush. Tackling dummies are too fun to hit and put up lil resistance and no moves.

The tape tells you most of what you want. What it doesn't show is motivators, priorities, character and level of devotion to the game or team.

Not included in that breakdown,because you don't have universal participation....

I'd put significant import on senior bowl. Guys who do well there, seem to correlate to successful players. That's the most real world chance to see em work.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 17 2013, 12:00 PM) *
But that minimum is nothing. The tape has already shown the arm. It's his greatest asset according to all. My point is that you've learned nothing knew at a QBs pro day. I'm not talking bout geno. But all QBs.


Oh, I don't care too much about them. I was simply pointing out what is most important to me at them. I would say he has a very good arm, but not necessarily great. Certainly enough to make any throw.

My opinion of Smith likely could have only gone down after his pro day, if it came to light that the ball didn't really necessarily come out the way I expected.

My opinion of the guy was well formed before any of the post season stuff. I don't think he's an elite prospect, in the mold of Luck or even Griffin. But certainly viable as a top pick and much better than anything on our roster.
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