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nephillymike
Now the sports talk shows in Philly are saying that it is unlikely that Smith will be there when the Eagles pick at #4.

So I did a little checking.

Assuming Andy doesn't take him at #1 which is a safe bet IMO since he signed Alex, what would it cost for us to move up to #2, or to #3 to get him??

According to the draft day trade value charts, we would have to give away 800 value points to move up from #4 to #2. We would have to give up 400 value points to move up from #4 to #3. What does this mean in picks?

To move up to #2, we would give up(in addition to the #4 pick):

Our 2nd round pick #35 which is 550 points
Our 3rd round pick #66 which is 260 points
and we would take the Jags 7th round pick which is worth 12 points


To move up to #3, we would give up(in addition to the #4 pick):

Our 2nd round pick #35 which is 550 points
Our 4th round pick #100 which is 100 points
and we would take the Raiders 3rd round pick #68 which is worth 250 points

Would anyone do either of the above??

nephillymike
Just to put some names of past Eagles drafts to these picks we would be trading, I looked at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks from the past that were closest to the slots that would be involved in the trades to try to give a face to it.

2nd round picks closest to #35 = R. Brown and B. Gardner
3rd Round pick closest to #66 = C. Gocong
4th round pick closest to #100 = Gari Scott and Max Jean Gilles

So, to move up two slots from 4 to 2, we would be giving up (Brown or Gardner) and Gocong.

To move up one slot from 4 to 3, we would be giving up (Brown or Gardner) and (Scott or Max J. Gilles) and get back Gocong.

sure there could be other draft picks worth something, but the Eagles in these ranges haven't hit much so the picks may not mean much. They could, but may not.
Reality Fan
the question I have is why you would trade up at all......if this guy was a sure thing I could see the point but at best right now the guy is the tallest midget.....the draft class is not elite so if they feel the need to waste the 4th pick on him(in which case many here will deny ever wanting him if he fails and then lambaste the pick in 3 years) why compound it by trading up to do so........one thing that surprises me about the love affair with this guy is that he is already known for not wanting to runa nd not wanting to be cast as a running QB....sound familiar?

Draft D early and often
nephillymike
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 15 2013, 08:21 PM) *
the question I have is why you would trade up at all......if this guy was a sure thing I could see the point but at best right now the guy is the tallest midget.....the draft class is not elite so if they feel the need to waste the 4th pick on him(in which case many here will deny ever wanting him if he fails and then lambaste the pick in 3 years) why compound it by trading up to do so........one thing that surprises me about the love affair with this guy is that he is already known for not wanting to runa nd not wanting to be cast as a running QB....sound familiar?

Draft D early and often



I agree RF. If he's there at 4, then we can make a decision. If not, pick the next best available.

I don't have the facts on this, but I worry about QB's who, based on their collegiate career, are rated say anywhere from an early second to mid first draft pick. And then basd on combines and pro days, they shoot way up to the top few picks of the draft. I worry they place a disproportionate weight on the pro day.

Maybe I got Mamulaitis.
mcnabbulous
The bottom line: it doesn't matter how any of us perceive him. If our FO identifies him as a franchise QB, they have to get him. If not, they have options. Comparing him to the rest of the class is fruitless.
TGryn
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2013, 05:41 PM) *
I don't have the facts on this, but I worry about QB's who, based on their collegiate career, are rated say anywhere from an early second to mid first draft pick. And then basd on combines and pro days, they shoot way up to the top few picks of the draft. I worry they place a disproportionate weight on the pro day.

I felt the same way about Tannehill last year: as the best "available" QB after Luck and RGIII, I thought his value got inflated disproportionately by the workouts. However, its hard to argue that the Dolphins didn't get good value from him during his rookie year:
QUOTE
Tannehill would set rookie franchise records in games started (16), passing yards in a game (431), passing yards in a season (3,294), season passing attempts (484), and season pass completions (282). He also set the franchise record for the longest rush by a quarterback (31 yards). He missed the rookie completion percentage by 0.1%.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (TGryn @ Mar 15 2013, 09:20 PM) *
I felt the same way about Tannehill last year: as the best "available" QB after Luck and RGIII, I thought his value got inflated disproportionately by the workouts. However, its hard to argue that the Dolphins didn't get good value from him during his rookie year:


Great post, T. I think that's incredibly relevant. Tanehill may be the perfect case study for Geno.
D Rock
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 16 2013, 02:21 AM) *
the question I have is why you would trade up at all......if this guy was a sure thing I could see the point but at best right now the guy is the tallest midget.....the draft class is not elite so if they feel the need to waste the 4th pick on him(in which case many here will deny ever wanting him if he fails and then lambaste the pick in 3 years) why compound it by trading up to do so........one thing that surprises me about the love affair with this guy is that he is already known for not wanting to runa nd not wanting to be cast as a running QB....sound familiar?

Draft D early and often

Totally sounds familiar. Walter Football calls Geno "a poor man's McNabb."

Ya'll know I'm not interested.

In regards to Mike's question...

I've already said that I agree with your overall thought that the value of draft picks is over stated in the NFL because of their "hit or miss" nature. But I don't think you can point to picks of the previous regime as examples of what the current group might find picking in similar slots. They've already shown significant differences in the types of players they like both here and there. In particular, the linebacker. I'm sold on Chip simply because he's been outspoken about the value of quality linebackers throughout the roster. His pointing to the special teams benefit of having alot of bodies in that position group is just one example. Andy thought (and in some ways he was right) that a defense that was stout up front, and seccure over the top and on the edge would suffice. I get where he was coming from schematically, but he missed the cultural element that quality linebackers bring. The attitude, toughness, and physicality that our defenses was missing even in their good years under Andy will be achieved with great linebacking.

It's two totally different philosophies.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 16 2013, 02:41 AM) *
I agree RF. If he's there at 4, then we can make a decision. If not, pick the next best available.

I don't have the facts on this, but I worry about QB's who, based on their collegiate career, are rated say anywhere from an early second to mid first draft pick. And then basd on combines and pro days, they shoot way up to the top few picks of the draft. I worry they place a disproportionate weight on the pro day.

Maybe I got Mamulaitis.

100% agreed. Game film is more valuable on QBs than ANY other position. And by a HUGE margin.

As stated in another thread. A QB's Pro Day is the biggest waste of time of all college scouting endeavors. It's too controlled an environment.

An ass load of guys can throw a pretty ball against imaginary defenders in their own backyards with their best friends. And, do it all day. There's just no correlation to "quarterbackery" there.

(sorry nabulous - I just LOVE that term)

cheers.gif
nephillymike
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 09:07 PM) *
The bottom line: it doesn't matter how any of us perceive him. If our FO identifies him as a franchise QB, they have to get him. If not, they have options. Comparing him to the rest of the class is fruitless.



So if you are the Eagles GM, do you move up to get him at #2 or at #3?? My guess is there is just as big a chance at Jax picking him at #2 as Oak getting him at #3, so really, the only way to secure him may be to get to 2 and that may not even be doable because 2 may want him, or they may demand more than usual to give him up.

What do you do??
mcnabbulous
Couple things:

Walter Football is a hack. Even if you take away the 30% of Geno Smith throws which were behind the LOS, a number you keep harping on, Smith still threw 81 more passes than McNabb as a senior. Comparing the two guys is apples and oranges. Geno Smith proved he could be an elite college passer.

I'm glad we can at least agree on quarterbackery being a great term cheers.gif

And Mikey, I would probably try to trade up to get him. Frankly, I'd likely be working the phones with Andy to see if I could do a relatively team friendly deal. There is little risk in KC moving back to 4 and still being able to land one of the top OL. I've heard them linked to Fisher, who makes a lot more sense at 4 than 1. Maybe something can be done.
D Rock
Funny how everyone who thinks geno isn't the man is a hack.

But last week you post a chief fans blog that's pro geno as if it were gospel.

And on a personal level, I've fully enjoyed disagreeing with you on geno and the discussion it's given rise to. That's why we're all here. But you sir, crossed a line in another thread by equating me to vermeilman and that's not cool. That asshat was a complete dick and a racist. I'm disappointed that this too had to devolve into personal insults.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 12:15 PM) *
Funny how everyone who thinks geno isn't the man is a hack.
But last week you post a chief fans blog that's pro geno as if it were gospel.
My point is that their opinions are no more valuable than the guy I cited. At least that dude provided video of Geno's various qualities.

QUOTE
And on a personal level, I've fully enjoyed disagreeing with you on geno and the discussion it's given rise to. That's why we're all here. But you sir, crossed a line in another thread by equating me to vermeilman and that's not cool. That asshat was a complete dick and a racist. I'm disappointed that this too had to devolve into personal insults.

It's always difficult to identify sincerity vs sarcasm on a message board, but I'm assuming this is sarcastic and it made me laugh. I figured that jab would sting a bit. Hopefully no hard feelings.
D Rock
Whatever.

The only way a barely literate fan bloggers opinion is equal to that of a 6 time NFL executive of the year's is when said blogger agrees with you and you've decided to throw logic out the window.

Seriously. That's the dumbest thing you've ever posted. And I still remember the mountains of dum shit re JoPa being guiltless.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 12:34 PM) *
Whatever.

The only way a barely literate fan bloggers opinion is equal to that of a 6 time NFL executive of the year's is when said blogger agrees with you and you've decided to throw logic out the window.
When said blogger uses film to advance his cause, it certainly helps.
QUOTE
Seriously. That's the dumbest thing you've ever posted. And I still remember the mountains of dum shit re JoPa being guiltless.

Ahh there it is. Well, the tide is starting to turn on that one. People, like Bob Costas, who immediately and inaccurately rushed to judgement are now realizing the pathetic lack of evidence against Paterno don't reflect reality and a 60 year track record.

But that last thing I would want to do is drum up that old debate. I would hate for anyone here to have to actually think for themselves, review evidence, or actually learn something about the subject.

I'll go out on a limb and assume you've read neither the Freeh Report or the more recent rebuttal. Which means your opinion on the subject is about as valuable as a Chiefs blogger. Without the video evidence, of course.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 12:53 PM) *
When said blogger uses film to advance his cause, it certainly helps.


You can look at any college QB prospect and come up with 20 or 30 great plays they have made.....Russell is a great example. I could post video of his multiple safeties and say he sucks at reading pressure but would that mean I was relevant because I provided the video? I just have the feeling this guy is another Tim Couch type......I could be wrong and probably am it is just that I have seen a lot of Mountaineer games this past season and he has had some incredible games but he has also been mediocre at times, particularly once the Heisman talk started in earnest and he just does not seem like a sure bet at 4 for me. If he was there at 3 or 4 I would probably be happy but not at 4......he is not that safe a bet for me.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 16 2013, 05:21 PM) *
You can look at any college QB prospect and come up with 20 or 30 great plays they have made.....Russell is a great example. I could post video of his multiple safeties and say he sucks at reading pressure but would that mean I was relevant because I provided the video? I just have the feeling this guy is another Tim Couch type......I could be wrong and probably am it is just that I have seen a lot of Mountaineer games this past season and he has had some incredible games but he has also been mediocre at times, particularly once the Heisman talk started in earnest and he just does not seem like a sure bet at 4 for me. If he was there at 3 or 4 I would probably be happy but not at 4......he is not that safe a bet for me.


My general opinion of this entire class is that no one is a sure thing. Very few QB prospects are. Andrew Luck was the exception, not the rule. But a QB doesn't need to be a sure thing to warrant a top-5 pick. We aren't taking about a one year wonder, either. This guy had three very solid seasons. There is far more good footage than bad.

My point is that the value in hitting on a QB far outweighs the upside with drafting an OL, even if that OL is a sure thing. And I'm not sure Joekel is anyways.

Smith has tons of upside. It would be our coaching staffs responsibility to get the most out of him. I'm not sure anyone ever did that with Couch or things may have been different.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 07:30 PM) *
My general opinion of this entire class is that no one is a sure thing. Very few QB prospects are. Andrew Luck was the exception, not the rule. But a QB doesn't need to be a sure thing to warrant a top-5 pick. We aren't taking about a one year wonder, either. This guy had three very solid seasons. There is far more good footage than bad.

My point is that the value in hitting on a QB far outweighs the upside with drafting an OL, even if that OL is a sure thing. And I'm not sure Joekel is anyways.

Smith has tons of upside. It would be our coaching staffs responsibility to get the most out of him. I'm not sure anyone ever did that with Couch or things may have been different.


I'm on the record as saying our #4 pick should be on defense, as there's loads of talent in this draft on that side of the ball. It also has to be assumed, especially with our FA signings and the fact that Kelly is our coach, that we're going to go full-balls in building the offense. We signed some decent defensive FAs to fill holes, and I assume we'll take a couple defensive players in the later rounds. Our #4 pick is most likely going to be on offense, and Reid will probably take Joeckel. I'm not doing cartwheels for Geno Smith, but if we're going to get him, I'd be satisfied that perhaps we can get more out of him than Vick or Foles, and perhaps turn our offense around pretty quick. So I would be ok with us using our #4 pick on him, as we all have to assume it's going to be on offense anyway.
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