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D Rock
I was aksed in another thread "why would I question" Geno Smith at #4 because "his numbers are better than any QB in this draft."

I thought I'd make my case in a separate thread . . .

.......................................

Why would I "question this?"

His numbers were "better than any QB in this draft?" So what? These QBs are all a bunch of schlubs. That's like sleeping with a fat chick because she's the least fat chick on the biggest loser. She's still a fat chick from the biggest loser. His "numbers" were largely a product of Tavon and the talented skill possition players he played with.

Get this.

He threw the majority of his passes within 7 yards of the LOS. He threw the plurality of his passes (30%+) BEHIND the LOS. That to me, devalues his "numbers." When a bubble screen goes for a 65 yard score, that's hard to attribute to great quarterbackery (thnx nabulous) and isn't exactly an example of "reading the defense." I'm defining "reading the defense" as recognizing the coverage and correctly deciding where to go with the ball. He's a 1 read quarterback currently. The college spread offense does NOT require the QB to read a defense alla the pro game. That's not his fault. But it is the fact.

Don't wanna believe me? Okay.

KFFL backs up my thoughts on his "numbers" by listing in his weaknesses "Inflated statistcal production based on WVs high flying system and players.

Don't wanna believe KKFL? Okay.

This from Erik Galko of Optimum Scouting, Inc...

-snip-

After West Virginia’s 5-0 start to the season—including a win at Texas—Geno Smith was poised to go from “trendy sleeper” quarterback prospect to emerging star, with NFL teams drooling at the chance to draft him. With gaudy stats, consistent ball placement, lateral mobility and great anticipation, Geno Smith seized the opportunity to wow on the stat sheet and on film early in his first and only Big 12 season.

But a 35-point loss at Texas Tech followed. Then a 41-point home loss to Kansas State. (personal note: Geno completed 21 of 35 passes for only 143 yards or 4.5 per attempt: threw 1 Td and 2 Ints) Then three more defeats. Suddenly, Smith wasn’t the Heisman favorite anymore and began to raise some doubts for QB-needy NFL teams. Smith finished the 2012 season admirably but lost to fellow 2013 draft prospect Ryan Nassib and Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Based on the stat sheet and record book, Smith showed he couldn’t handle pressure, that he didn’t have an NFL skill set at quarterback and didn’t have what it takes to be a franchise NFL quarterback.

-unsnip-

Don't wanna believe that Professional Scout? Okay.

6 time NFL executive of the year Bill Polian (I know some of you want to dismiss this career NFL talent evaluator, but I personally find that reality laughable) says that his ceiling is "career backup."

Don't wanna believe Bill Polian? Okay.

Greg Cosell (see his wiki for resume of this professional analyst and talent evaluator) says....

"There's no question that he has an NFL arm -- he's an NFL talent. He's got some other issues. He's got footwork issues, but that can be corrected. He plays almost exclusively in the shotgun and he's a bit of a bouncer -- in other words, he doesn't take the snap, drop back, stick his foot in the ground and get ready to go.

"He sort of bounces, so when he decides where he wants to throw the ball, he then needs to plant and deliver. Sometimes he hurries himself doing that if there are bodies closer to him, and at other times, he's a beat late with throws, because he has that extra half-second where he then has to plant and throw. At times, I thought he was a little bit erratic and scattershot with his accuracy, and he regularly left some routine throws on the field.....

....The problem for these young passers is an issue of patience. After watching Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson tear up the NFL as newbies, tolerance for slow-cooked arm talent is at an all-time low. Smith and the rest of this class would benefit from time to watch and learn, but the NFL is no longer a watch-and-learn league for first-year signal callers."

Don't wanna belive Greg Cosell? Okay.

Mike Mayock (I know, I know - you all know more than Mike too) said after a 12 hour film study session on Geno . . .

"I watched a bunch of Geno Smith and he can make every throw. He's athletic. The ball jumps out of his hand. But there's a lot of things that make me nervous about him. He misses people by wide margins for no reason. I see a little bit of hesitancy with the blitz. When that first read is not there, it's not pretty on the second or third read. His eyes come down. He makes mistakes."

He goes on to say that he's not sure he's a "first round talent let alone a top 5." But admits that some QB needy dope will likely reach for him in the top 10.

Don't wanna believe Mike? Okay.

Charley Casserly classifies Geno as "borderline first round talent."

Don't wanna believe Charley? Okay.

Walter Football's evaluation sumarises him as "A poor man's Donovan McNabb." Saying "he wont win as much as McNabb did, but IF he pans out, he could be similar to Donovan."

..................

I could go on and on.

Look.

I'm not suggesting these guys (or any) hold the keys to football knowledge nirvana. But they are professionals while you and I are fans.

I've read comparisons (on the good side) to Rothlesburger (has athletecism but almost refuses to use it) and Alex Smith (game manager ceiling).

The guy falls apart under pressure. He has had multiple, multiple safety games, and has a fumbling problem when pressured.

He may be great. But the evidence that he wont be vastly outweighs that which says he will.

Bottom Line:

I'm of the firm belief that when you've "earned" the #4 pick . . . you HAVE to get a perennial All Pro, regardless of position, need, or side of the ball. You don't take a shot at "potential" with the #4 pick.

I'd be fine taking him if we trade back to 10 - 15, but as previously stated . . . "Some QB needy dope will likely take him before that."

If Christian Ponder were in this class, he'd be rated higher.

No Thanks.
Phits
Brady was a 6th round pick. The "experts" all expected the following to be better:

Chad Pennington, Marshall - Drafted by the New York Jets in Round 1, Pick 18.
Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra - Drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in Round 3, Pick 65.
Chris Redman, Louisville - Drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in Round 3, Pick 75.
Tee Martin, Tennessee - Drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Round 5, Pick 163.
Marc Bulger, West Virginia - Drafted by the New Orleans Saints in Round 6, Pick 168.
Spergon Wynn, SW Texas State - Drafted by the Cleveland Browns in Round 6, Pick 183.

Sometimes that know-it-alls get it wrong.

With that said, I feel we should be drafting the best player available. I don't see any player that is a sure shot All-Pro....even at #4. I have no problem with a Smith pick. Then again, I wanted Aso to sign here as a FA so what the hell do I know.
D Rock
I totally agree, Phits. And said as much. I'd be fine taking him in a trade back scenario. And the "experts" shit the bed often. But the consensus on this guy is clear. My "case against Geno" was offered largely in response to the incredulity folks have expressed at my suggesting he's not a future Hall of Famer. (and for all we know . . . he might just be. It just doesn't look anything like it at this point)

The only "sure fire All Pros" I see in this draft (and I'm a DKD too) are Joekel and Warmack. I've been "pounding the table" to take Chance at #4 for weeks despite the rarity of interior O linemen going that high. It's all about Best Player Available.
Zero
I'm a yo yo DKD 'cause I keep coming back to Joekel at #4. Insurance for Peters ... if Joekel will play RT and let Herremans move to RG.
HobbEs
If Joekel is there you have to take him at #4. Aside from QB the LT is the most important position on the team.
nephillymike
Well the back and forth continues.

After Jaws said yesterday on Mikey Miss show that he wouldn't pick him at #4 b/c of leadership concerns, he flip flops and says today that he would have no problem trading up to pick him at #1 !!!. I don't know. I respect Jaws and I respect some of the guys you quote as well. Jaws did say that he heard respected GM's at his pro day gasp in delight at some of the throws he made. He said he threw the ball extremely well and his footwork had improved considerably. Golic mentioned about how Demarcus Russell wowed people years ago and what a bust he was.

Mike Miss had a different take. He said if you think Smith is going to be a good NFL QB, you take him at #4. Given it seems like foles skill set is not a match and that Vick is a one year patch, you need a top QB to compete in the NFL for the prize. If you believe that between the cleansing, the draft, the FA signings and a return to health that the Eagles are two games better than last year, then they wil not be in a postion next year to draft any of the top 3 QB's that come out, unless they trade up a hefty price. Also, the talent of next year's QB class is considered to be better, but there are no can't miss Andrew Lucks there that you can get with a 6-10 record. AND, the depth of any year's QB class changes greatly between this year and next year's draft (see Barkley, Matt). so MIkey Miss says we HAVE to take him at #4.

All that being said, I'll wait to read some more reviews of yesterday's pro day. Based on what Im hearing, I've softened my view from being dead set against it, to being OK if they go in that direction. Add in the fact that the Eagles brass had him throw over 100 passes, many on the run, and sat him down for an extensive class session, I'm confident that they've done their homework if they go that way.

I'll wait to hear more about him and the other potentials before I post my pick at #4, but I'm definitely moving toward that way.
D Rock
I have no doubt he wowed at proday. Nobody questions the arm. There was no pressure from defenders. Pro days are a waste of time. It's too controlled an environment. If you can't kill a pro day, you don't belong in the conversation. The tape is what's damning. Almost unanimously, this guy can't handle pressure.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (HobbEs @ Mar 15 2013, 08:15 AM) *
Aside from QB the LT is the most important position on the team.

There is no longer evidence to suggest that having a great LT has any impact on winning in the modern NFL. It's a mindset from days of old.
Yes, having one is a good thing. Not having a capable guy will lose you games, but there is no reason to spend a top-5 pick on an OL of any kind. The impact between capable starters and the best of the best is minimal.
With the #4 pick, you need someone capable of dramatically impacting games. Very, very few OL are capable of doing that. Jason Peters is one and he was a nobody coming out of school.
Take a skill guy, for upside alone. And best case, take a QB.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 15 2013, 09:14 AM) *
I have no doubt he wowed at proday. Nobody questions the arm. There was no pressure from defenders. Pro days are a waste of time. It's too controlled an environment. If you can't kill a pro day, you don't belong in the conversation. The tape is what's damning. Almost unanimously, this guy can't handle pressure.


Can you honestly say you saw his game against Texas this year? It makes a strong case against your argument that he can't handle pressure. They had several NFL quality defenders, including one of the best pass rushers in college football, and he lit them up with pressure coming all day.
mcnabbulous
Whoa, talk about cherry picking. I just went a read that article. After the "unsnip" this is what I found.


Smith can wow with his arm and feet, but two of his best qualities have nothing to do with his arm strength or athleticism.. As I wrote in early October (http://www.optimumscouting.com/scout-s-notes/articles/scouting-notebook-the-opposite-paths-of-geno-smith-and-logan-thomas-the-next-de-freaks-and-top-10.html), his composure and confidence are what moved him up draft boards. Those characteristics not only can't be taught but are rare qualities to find in a position that demands so much from a player.

And he concludes with this:
"So what can we expect from Smith? Here’s the best way I can put it for NFL fans who love comparisons: He’s Alex Smith now and Aaron Rodgers (minus some arm strength) in the future. He can be an athletic game manager early in his career, with the upside of being a mobile, composed and productive passer in the future."

I've been making the Aaron Rodgers comparison. He's not quite as mechanically sound as Rodgers coming out of school, but that can come with coaching.


D Rock
Wow. Talk about contradictory. So Optimum says his "composure" is a strength, but he "falls apart" under pressure." His greatest strength is "confidence?" That's rather damning in my opinion. I'd rather a QB who's greatest strength was understanding coverages, or handling pressure. Confidence? Neat. That'll take him far. Vince Young has tons of confidence.

You're cherry picking more than I am. The Texas game was the outlier. He followed that game up with a 5 game losing streak. Including losses of 35 and 41 points where he barely averaged 4 yards per attempt and had twice as many INTs as TDs. What I've shown is a consensus of experts.

I honestly can't figure out what's made you fall in love with this guy. Optimum even says that he "lacks an NFL skill set." You or I may have composure out the ying yang, but we also lack an NFL skill set.

I've shown "the numbers" are meaningless. I've shown a consensus that he can't handle pressure and is prone to mistakes when his first read isn't there. I've shown that he rarely throws the ball more than 7 yards beyond the LOS.

All you've done is claim I'm wrong.

C'Mon Man.

Gimme something to believe in here. What has you loving this guy? I've seen a handful of his games (both wins and losses). Looked at the film on youtube (cut ups obviously intended to make him look good). I can't see a single damn thing to make me believe he's going to be a quality starter in the NFL let alone a player worthy of the 4th pick.

Gimme something beyond your opinion.
HobbEs
QUOTE
There is no longer evidence to suggest that having a great LT has any impact on winning in the modern NFL. It's a mindset from days of old.


Huh? Seriously?

Look no further than our own Eagles with Jason Peters vs our own Eagles with Demetress Bell/King Dunlap. How do those compare?

But hey, if you're sold on the best QB of a bad class then more power to you. You realize Foles would be going in the first round if he came out this year, don't you?

If the Eagles swing and miss with Smth it could set this franchise back years. Just look at the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell.
D Rock
QUOTE (HobbEs @ Mar 15 2013, 08:34 PM) *
Huh? Seriously?

Look no further than our own Eagles with Jason Peters vs our own Eagles with Demetress Bell/King Dunlap. How do those compare?

But hey, if you're sold on the best QB of a bad class then more power to you. You realize Foles would be going in the first round if he came out this year, don't you?

If the Eagles swing and miss with Smth it could set this franchise back years. Just look at the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell.

jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif jumpclap.gif
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (HobbEs @ Mar 15 2013, 03:34 PM) *
Huh? Seriously?

Look no further than our own Eagles with Jason Peters vs our own Eagles with Demetress Bell/King Dunlap. How do those compare?

But hey, if you're sold on the best QB of a bad class then more power to you. You realize Foles would be going in the first round if he came out this year, don't you?

If the Eagles swing and miss with Smth it could set this franchise back years. Just look at the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell.


Look no further than none of the "best" tackles in football being on contenders. If you have a capable guy, and no our backups weren't, then you are fine. You don't need a top-5 pick.
How have Cleveland and Miami fared because of their "great" OT's? Oakland is a shitty franchise. Russell is a product of that, not a reason for it.
D Rock
You've tried and failed to make this argument before.

Let's go the other route. Show me a Superbowl Team with a lousy LT.

mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 15 2013, 03:54 PM) *
You've tried and failed to make this argument before.

Let's go the other route. Show me a Superbowl Team with a lousy LT.


The 2012 Baltimore Ravens are a good start. They got their guy off a scrap heap. When was the last one that was picked in the top-5 to win a SB?
Like I said, you can't have a backup. The guy has to be starting caliber. They don't have to be a star.
mcnabbulous
And Geno lost 3 games while putting up 34, 38, and 49 points. That defense was an embarrassment. Kansas State had a very good team this year. Everyone has off days.

And you're the last person I thought would be suckered by these "experts" who don't even work for NFL teams. I guess we can let his ultimate draft position be the judge of what real experts think.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 09:00 PM) *
And Geno lost 3 games while putting up 34, 38, and 49 points. That defense was an embarrassment. Kansas State had a very good team this year. Everyone has off days.

And you're the last person I thought would be suckered by these "experts" who don't even work for NFL teams. I guess we can let his ultimate draft position be the judge of what real experts think.

I've been suckered by nothing. The experts have merely confirmed what my own eyes had seen. I've been searching high and low for that lil something that gives me reason to believe in this kid. I've implored you to provide something. ANYTHING. But again . . . all you've done is claim I'm wrong and poo poo all evidence to the contrary.

D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 08:58 PM) *
The 2012 Baltimore Ravens are a good start. They got their guy off a scrap heap. When was the last one that was picked in the top-5 to win a SB?
Like I said, you can't have a backup. The guy has to be starting caliber. They don't have to be a star.

I care not how the player was obtained. I didn't ask you to show a Superbowl team without a top 5 draft pick at LT. I asked you to show a team with a LOUSY LT. You've failed to do so. But you have steered the conversation away from "The Case Against Geno Smith." I see what you did there....

tongue.gif
nephillymike
QUOTE (HobbEs @ Mar 15 2013, 03:34 PM) *
Huh? Seriously?

Look no further than our own Eagles with Jason Peters vs our own Eagles with Demetress Bell/King Dunlap. How do those compare?

But hey, if you're sold on the best QB of a bad class then more power to you. You realize Foles would be going in the first round if he came out this year, don't you?

If the Eagles swing and miss with Smth it could set this franchise back years. Just look at the Raiders with JaMarcus Russell.


I fully agree with you on the OT. No argument there.

However, in this time of revised rookie caps, why does a QB selected #4 overall who is a bust set us back more than an OG, or OT or CB who we pick at #4? IN either case, the money is the same for the slotted pick and if they bust out, we'll still have to get a FA or future draft replacement. I think there is equal risk on either. and to the extent that Vick or Foles may be a better replacement for a Smith bust than a Bradley Fletcher is for a Milliner bust ot Watkins is for a Warmack bust, the QB draft bust may not be as bad.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2013, 09:22 PM) *
I fully agree with you on the OT. No argument there.

However, in this time of revised rookie caps, why does a QB selected #4 overall who is a bust set us back more than an OG, or OT or CB who we pick at #4? IN either case, the money is the same for the slotted pick and if they bust out, we'll still have to get a FA or future draft replacement. I think there is equal risk on either. and to the extent that Vick or Foles may be a better replacement for a Smith bust than a Bradley Fletcher is for a Milliner bust ot Watkins is for a Warmack bust, the QB draft bust may not be as bad.

It doesn't. But I think (you confirm or deny as you the "numbers guy") that the % of misses on top 5 QBs is greater than the % of misses on top 5 OT, OG or CB.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 15 2013, 04:17 PM) *
I care not how the player was obtained. I didn't ask you to show a Superbowl team without a top 5 draft pick at LT. I asked you to show a team with a LOUSY LT. You've failed to do so. But you have steered the conversation away from "The Case Against Geno Smith." I see what you did there....

tongue.gif

And you're contesting me on an argument I never made. I explicitly said you have to have a capable LT. But there isn't enough difference between good and great to warrant a top-5 pick.

Like I said re: Geno, the real experts work for NFL teams. His draft position will dictate what they think.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 15 2013, 04:24 PM) *
It doesn't. But I think (you confirm or deny as you the "numbers guy") that the % of misses on top 5 QBs is greater than the % of misses on top 5 OT, OG or CB.


I also can't get hit by a bus if I never leave my house. And there aren't many top-5 Guards and Cornerbacks to offer a healthy case study.

Edit: to add to this. What is worse for our franchise: not drafting a guy that turns into an Aaron Rodgers type, or drafting a bust? For me, it's missing on the potential franchise guy. And I do think this guy has that ability. Obviously.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 09:35 PM) *
And you're contesting me on an argument I never made. I explicitly said you have to have a capable LT. But there isn't enough difference between good and great to warrant a top-5 pick.

Like I said re: Geno, the real experts work for NFL teams. His draft position will dictate what they think.

All due respect, my friend . . . But YOU said "best" LT and "great" LT.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 09:28 AM) *
Yes, having one is a good thing. Not having a capable guy will lose you games, but there is no reason to spend a top-5 pick on an OL of any kind. The impact between capable starters and the best of the best is minimal.


This is what I said.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 08:48 PM) *
Look no further than none of the "best" tackles in football being on contenders. If you have a capable guy, and no our backups weren't, then you are fine. You don't need a top-5 pick.
How have Cleveland and Miami fared because of their "great" OT's? Oakland is a shitty franchise. Russell is a product of that, not a reason for it.

This is what caused my response.

The question you're using to obfuscate this thread re: Geno Smith is whether or not you need a top 5 pick at tackle. But the reality is you have a better chance of hitting on a great left tackle in the top 5 than you do a great QB.

There is no doubt that gems can be found anywhere in the draft. It's about playing the percentages however. Pointing to Brady in the 6th round or Robert Gallery in the top 5 only serve to muddle the conversation (which is perhaps your rhetorical goal at this point).

Bottom Line: It's never a good idea to reach because you have a need at a position. Especially for a player that the consensus suggests is a borderline first round talent just because he plays the most valuable position.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 15 2013, 03:58 PM) *
The 2012 Baltimore Ravens are a good start. They got their guy off a scrap heap. When was the last one that was picked in the top-5 to win a SB?
Like I said, you can't have a backup. The guy has to be starting caliber. They don't have to be a star.



scrap heap might be a bit strong....wasn't McKinnie a one-time pro bowler?....It would seem he recovered from injury to become a star again......
nephillymike
I know I researched this and I'm pretty sure I posted it it but after 20 minutes of searching I can't find it!!

OT drafted top six do really really well.

QB drafted that high do OK. QB's drafted there recently have done better but not as well as the OT.

Sorry I can't find it. If you guys have luck in finding it great.
Reality Fan
I actually watched a good bit of Gino particularly after the Heisman talk reached a fever pitch. He is talented but for all the talk about the points he put up he also only dropped 14 on Syracuse, hardly a dominant performance on the big stage of a bowl appearance. Granted it was terrible weather but that does not excuse 2 safeties. He tore up some suspect defenses

He may be a good pro eventually but I look at it as you have a star RB who may only be effective for 2-3 years before the tread is off his tires. You have a lot of talent on offense and a whole lot of talent coming back from injury on that side of the ball. I am more concerned with the D so I would trade down and load up on defense and or O line and worry about Qbs next year when more talent is available.

Just my worthless 2 cents.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2013, 06:26 PM) *
I know I researched this and I'm pretty sure I posted it it but after 20 minutes of searching I can't find it!!

OT drafted top six do really really well.

QB drafted that high do OK. QB's drafted there recently have done better but not as well as the OT.

Sorry I can't find it. If you guys have luck in finding it great.


slacker!!!
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 15 2013, 06:26 PM) *
I know I researched this and I'm pretty sure I posted it it but after 20 minutes of searching I can't find it!!

OT drafted top six do really really well.

QB drafted that high do OK. QB's drafted there recently have done better but not as well as the OT.

Sorry I can't find it. If you guys have luck in finding it great.


Regardless, it doesn't really change anything for me. Finding a great OT is a luxury, but finding a franchise QB is a necessity. Just because it's safer doesn't mean it's better business. The upside about being right on an OL is significantly less than being right about a QB.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 02:17 AM) *
finding a franchise QB is a necessity.

That much is a given. That doesn't mean you piss away a valuable asset and overlook sure blue chip value for a long shot at the promised land.

You're being that guy at the blackjack table that hits a 15 when the dealer's showin a 6.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 01:45 AM) *
That much is a given. That doesn't mean you piss away a valuable asset and overlook sure blue chip value for a long shot at the promised land.

You're being that guy at the blackjack table that hits a 15 when the dealer's showin a 6.


There is no such thing as sure. You know this. Safe and sure are two very different things. Safe is worthless.
Eyrie
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 01:17 AM) *
Regardless, it doesn't really change anything for me. Finding a great OT is a luxury, but finding a franchise QB is a necessity. Just because it's safer doesn't mean it's better business. The upside about being right on an OL is significantly less than being right about a QB.

I get where you're coming from. At #4 we simply have to get a key player for the next ten years and a QB is more valuable than a T or SAM.

But the flip side of that is whether Smith is likely enough to be that key player. Like most on here I'm not convinced and don't want two years of him struggling followed by a third year with a new rookie QB learning the game. Joekel or Jordan are far more likely to make it as stars than Smith, so they'd be my choices if all three are available. The good news for the Eagles is that there are only three teams picking ahead of us, so at least one of that trio should be available.

My dream scenario though would be for the Bills to want Smith badly enough to trade up for him ahead of the Cardinals, giving up their first this year and next. We then find Jordan is still there at #8 and have two firsts to target a franchise QB in 2014.
Zero
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Mar 16 2013, 06:08 AM) *
My dream scenario though would be for the Bills to want Smith badly enough to trade up for him ahead of the Cardinals, giving up their first this year and next. We then find Jordan is still there at #8 and have two firsts to target a franchise QB in 2014.


Agreed. And, there's too much of a disparity of opion on Smith for me to feel good about him at #4.

Although a QB is vial to a team's success, in recent history players like Favre, Brady, Kaepernick, Warner, Hasselbeck, Johnson, and Gannon led their teams to a SB and were not top picks in the draft. So, the point isn't necessarily to use a high pick to get a franchise QB but to get the right player.
nephillymike
QUOTE (Eyrie @ Mar 16 2013, 06:08 AM) *
I get where you're coming from. At #4 we simply have to get a key player for the next ten years and a QB is more valuable than a T or SAM.

But the flip side of that is whether Smith is likely enough to be that key player. Like most on here I'm not convinced and don't want two years of him struggling followed by a third year with a new rookie QB learning the game. Joekel or Jordan are far more likely to make it as stars than Smith, so they'd be my choices if all three are available. The good news for the Eagles is that there are only three teams picking ahead of us, so at least one of that trio should be available.

My dream scenario though would be for the Bills to want Smith badly enough to trade up for him ahead of the Cardinals, giving up their first this year and next. We then find Jordan is still there at #8 and have two firsts to target a franchise QB in 2014.


"Whilst" your idea seems like a good one in theory, the value difference between the #8 and #4 is only 400 points which if we're talking future years draft picks is only a future #2! So it would be we give up #4, and get #8 plus the Bills 2nd rounder next year. (430 pts). Or we could do it all this year, roughly giving up the #4 and our 4th round pick for the #8 and the Bills 2nd round pick this year.

Is that still worth doing for you?

Moving into the top three spots has a 400 point increment whereas movement among 4-8 is only worth 100 pts. I guess the theory being most HOF and Multiple PB guys are found in the top three.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/drafttools/tradechart.shtml
D Rock
QUOTE (Zero @ Mar 16 2013, 12:48 PM) *
Agreed. And, there's too much of a disparity of opion on Smith for me to feel good about him at #4.

Although a QB is vial to a team's success, in recent history players like Favre, Brady, Kaepernick, Warner, Hasselbeck, Johnson, and Gannon led their teams to a SB and were not top picks in the draft. So, the point isn't necessarily to use a high pick to get a franchise QB but to get the right player.

The only disparity on smith is that the folks who don't like him can tell you why.
D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 16 2013, 04:05 PM) *
"Whilst" your idea seems like a good one in theory, the value difference between the #8 and #4 is only 400 points which if we're talking future years draft picks is only a future #2! So it would be we give up #4, and get #8 plus the Bills 2nd rounder next year. (430 pts). Or we could do it all this year, roughly giving up the #4 and our 4th round pick for the #8 and the Bills 2nd round pick this year.

Is that still worth doing for you?

Moving into the top three spots has a 400 point increment whereas movement among 4-8 is only worth 100 pts. I guess the theory being most HOF and Multiple PB guys are found in the top three.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/drafttools/tradechart.shtml

Until they make a draft trade value chart that accounts for the rookie wage scale, that old one is useless. Top picks are more valuable now that you're not forced to drop 60mil on the top dog.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 11:03 AM) *
The only disparity on smith is that the folks who don't like him can tell you why.


And the difference between taking a shot on a guy like Smith vs someone like Dion Jordan, is that Smith actually produced at the college level.

I get if you aren't high on the guy, but given the question marks at the top of the draft this year, he's no riskier than the other guys. Unless, of course, you want to draft a guard, which is just stupid.

Why I like Smith: athleticism, size, arm, accuracy, college production, looooow interception numbers, potential.

Why you don't: Bill Polian told you not to.
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 05:25 PM) *
And the difference between taking a shot on a guy like Smith vs someone like Dion Jordan, is that Smith actually produced at the college level.

I get if you aren't high on the guy, but given the question marks at the top of the draft this year, he's no riskier than the other guys. Unless, of course, you want to draft a guard, which is just stupid.

Why I like Smith: athleticism, size, arm, accuracy, college production, looooow interception numbers, potential.

Why you don't: Bill Polian told you not to.

I was the first here to point to Jordan's shocking lack of production and have never advocated picking him. And as stated ad nausium at this point... Polian only servs to reinforce my own opinion. He doesn't provide it. But you already knew that. I'm done with this discussion with you. You've offered nothing evidentiary and have started down the insulting path. Oh well. it was fun for a while.

See you in the funny papers.
iggleslover49
The fact is you just can't go by what the media and scouts say. We've seen late round picks turn into hall of fame players and heisman winners turn to busts in the NFL scouts were all on J Russell's nut sack coming out of LSU. how'd that turn out? Cam Newton hasn't seen the playoffs yet. Meanwhile Kaepernick is playing in the Super Bowl. Stop looking at the prospects individually and think about their team and what they have the potential to do with better playmakers and different systems. We'll be running the ball a lot outta two tight end sets. Can I see Geno in that type of system? Absolutely.

You guys love using numbers to on this forum and I respect that. But numbers are easily manipulated and just don't tell the whole story.(And Im a busy man That doesnt have the time to sit here and look for numbers anyway) I never use them and you guys will hate me for that, but oh well. I'm more of a film guy and make my opinions based of the style of play.

Turn on the film and you see a guy that can squeeze the ball in tight spaces, goes through his progression fairly quickly,(the whole progression) and DOES check down, but DOES throw deep as well and throws a great jump ball to the corner of the end zone which bodes well for the bigger receivers on the roster. Yet also has done a little read option and is athletic enough to burn teams with his feet. I think Chip could absolutely be targeting him at four, but wouldn't be mad if he went else where.

I just don't see how a scout can negatively kill this guy. The only knock that I can see on the guy is inconsistency and how much of that is on him vs the receivers, oline,ect...?
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 12:20 PM) *
I was the first here to point to Jordan's shocking lack of production and have never advocated picking him. And as stated ad nausium at this point... Polian only servs to reinforce my own opinion. He doesn't provide it. But you already knew that. I'm done with this discussion with you. You've offered nothing evidentiary and have started down the insulting path. Oh well. it was fun for a while.

See you in the funny papers.


Damn dude, I was just breaking balls.

As for Jordan, I wasn't citing you specifically. He's been mentioned by numerous people as a viable #4. The point still stands. Geno is no riskier than any other guy in this draft, with the exception of a few linemen. And I don't think there is enough value in spending a top-5 pick on the OL to warrant the pick.

I'm not sure what "evidence" I could provide. You ignore his numbers because he threw 30% of his passes behind the LOS. That still amounts to over 350 passes beyond the line as a senior. You ignore the film because you claim the competition was weak, but its the same competition Griffin faced. You cite two bad games where his team was overmatched, as if some games just don't go the wrong way.

The guy throws a fantastic deep ball, he's athletic, he's accurate, he takes care of the football, he's a workaholic and film junkie. What other evidence are you looking for?
D Rock
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Mar 16 2013, 06:44 PM) *
Damn dude, I was just breaking balls.

Got it. Perhaps I was being over sensitive, but that cat was a first class ass, troll, and a racist. You touched a nerve.
nephillymike
QUOTE (D Rock @ Mar 16 2013, 12:57 PM) *
Got it. Perhaps I was being over sensitive, but that cat was a first class ass, troll, and a racist. You touched a nerve.



You know, maybe it's me, but I don't have a good memory of controversial guys of years past.

I forgot about V-man.

Remember Since 75?

Who were some of the others?
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 16 2013, 01:03 PM) *
You know, maybe it's me, but I don't have a good memory of controversial guys of years past.

I forgot about V-man.

Remember Since 75?

Who were some of the others?



let me consult my ignore list....hahahaha
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