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nephillymike
The Eagles had 124 draft picks between 1998 (Rhodes last one) and 2011, Reid's second to last.

I looked at each draft pick and rated them as one of six performance levels:

1 = Many Pro Bowls (3 or more)
2 = Occasional Pro Bowl (2 or less)
3. = Solid Starter
4. = Limited Starter
5. = Backup
6. = Bust

If they played some of their career elsewhere, I took that into account. Mostly took their highest level, unless that level was short lived (ie a guy who started for one year, but backed up for 6 is a backup)

Here is the breakdown by round, by performance level. First table is total numbers, next is %'s:

Round....#Picks.......1MPB....2OPB......3SS......4LS.......5BU......6BST
1............12..............2..........3..........3...........1..........3...........0
2............17..............0..........3..........1...........6..........4...........3
3............14..............1..........2..........0...........1..........7...........3
4............24..............0..........0..........2...........2..........14..........6
5............20..............0..........1..........1...........2...........6..........10
6............16..............0..........0..........1...........1...........5...........9
7............21..............0..........0..........1...........2...........6..........12
Total......124.............3..........3..........9...........15.........45.........43

Round....#Picks.......1MPB....2OPB......3SS......4LS.......5BU......6BST
1............12............17%......25%......25%.....8%.......25%......0%
2............17............0%.......18%.......6%......35%......23%......18%.
3............14............7%.......14%.......0%......7%........50%......22%
4............24.............0%........0%.......8%.......8%.......59%......25%
5............20.............0%........5%.......5%.......10%......30%.....50%
6............16.............0%........0%.......6%........6%.......31%.....57%
7............21.............0%........0%.......5%........10%.....28%......57%
Total......124............2.4%.....7.3%....7.3%.....12.1%...36.2%...34.7%

So with our picks, one in each round plus an extra 7th for 8 total, what do the "odds" say?

Rd 1 - pro bowl player, rnd 2 = limited starter, round 3 = backup,rnd 4 = backup, rnds, 5, 6 & 7 = busts.

So, one future Pro Bowler, one limited starter, two backups and four busts.

Not the dream improvement I was hoping for.

Which takes me back to Free agency. How bad must our Pro Scouting Dept been to bring in all those stiffs in the last few years? I mean you get to see live game tape against NFL teams. It seems like the hit rate should be much higher.
nephillymike
Looked at another way, only 17% of your picks are solid starter or better. Yikes!!

The Eagles from 1998 - 2011 the 21 Eagles who were rated Solid Starter or Better:

Multiple Pro Bowls (3) = Mcnabb (6), Thomas (3), Trotter (4)
Occasional Pro Bowls (9) = Simon, Andrews, Shepard. Jackson, Mccoy, Lewis, Burgess, Westbrook, Cole
Solid Starters (9) = Bunkley, Maclin, Patterson, S. Brown, Henery, Herremans, Celek, Kelce, Brock

That's about it, over 14 drafts -15 limited starters like Considine, R. Brown, Coleman etc trickle thru but not excitement.

TGryn
Mike, these are dated, but it might help give an idea how the Eagles have fared vis-a-vis the rest of the league's average.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...mp;sportCat=nfl

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&...pro/8eVvyOtCxxQ
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&...pro/g0EMESTGMaU
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en&...pro/TRe26aCGVsU

Unfortunately doing these kind of studies for the entire league over a long enough period to matter is a significant amount of work, plus you have to wait a number of years before even knowing how a draft turned out, so these are the only two I know of.

My general thought: for all they try to make the draft out as a science with the Combine and such, even the professional drafters aren't very good % wise at figuring out who is going to make it in the NFL, and that's across the board. Having seen enough mock drafts by both fans and columnists through the years, though, the nonprofessionals are even worse.

UPDATE: here's another one with more recent seasons used: http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/THE%20BE...%20DRAFTING.pdf and http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/A%20Look...nt%20Drafts.pdf
His whole site actually looks interesting for this kind of thing, I'll have to explore it more.
Eyrie
Without going into all the detail, I'd say that what stands out is no solid starters and four picks being busts. Seems disappointing.

It may be that my expectation are too high based on actual league averages, but what I'd like from each draft is a ProBowler (say 3 appearances in 10 years), a solid starter (5-6 years), a limited starter (2-3 years) and a couple of back ups/STers (2-3 years each). That means hitting on five out of eight picks (allowing for compensatories and trade downs) which I don't consider unrealistic since I'm not looking for five All Pros.

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