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nephillymike
I say ten wins for Eagles.

And my expectations dropped a bit since pre camp.

Pre camp I siad we had a SB winning team. First time since before we played OAK in the SB that I thought we'd win it.

I don't see it now:

1. The starting QB has not changed his philosophy on protecting himself. He's pretty much saying to "let him be him". They have a spot for 5-11 200 lb QB's with a thick head like that, it's called the disabled list. Stupid!!

2. The lack of cohesion between the defensive units. The LB's and DB's seem out of sync. Also, the DL philosophy may not be meshing with the other units either, I dont know. And what will happen to the DL when the reg season hits and QB's really start using a change in cadence? How many offsides penalties will the numbnuts get then?

3. Too young! 30 of 53 with two years or less and those young ones on the defense have not had a real DC for their stay. Coaching matters.

Sadly, I down graded to 10-6 and maybe one playoff win before their exit.

Could have been so much better.
koolaidluke
I really don't know because there are too many variables. Before the pre season I thought maybe 10-6.

The good thing this year is that when Vick gets hurt he won't be replaced by Young, so at least we will have a chance to win the games he isn't playing.

Let's assume Vick misses 4 games. Let's further assume that our D picks up where it left off last year (top 5 in the league over the last 8 games). With that being the case you have to figure that Vick goes 10-2 in his games. If Foles can go .500 in his games that brings us to 12-4.

Then you have to add the "Eagles Fail Factor" to the equation. The Fail Factor causes the Eagles to actually lose two of their "wins" so the record ends up at 10-6.


10-6
Mr. Bonko
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 1 2012, 08:23 AM) *
I really don't know because there are too many variables. Before the pre season I thought maybe 10-6.

The good thing this year is that when Vick gets hurt he won't be replaced by Young, so at least we will have a chance to win the games he isn't playing.

Let's assume Vick misses 4 games. Let's further assume that our D picks up where it left off last year (top 5 in the league over the last 8 games). With that being the case you have to figure that Vick goes 10-2 in his games. If Foles can go .500 in his games that brings us to 12-4.

Then you have to add the "Eagles Fail Factor" to the equation. The Fail Factor causes the Eagles to actually lose two of their "wins" so the record ends up at 10-6.


10-6


5-11 and Andy is fired.
Dreagon
10-6 feels right for whoever wins the NFC East.

As a matter of fact, I predict that if the NFC East fields a wildcard team this year it will also be a 10-6 team...who lost the NFC East due to tie breakers.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE
Pre camp I siad we had a SB winning team. First time since before we played OAK in the SB that I thought we'd win it.


WHY?!?!? I mean seriously, what on earth made you think this was a Super Bowl contending team, much less for the first time since before I was born?!?!? From the loss to the Rams up until '05 I entered every year convinced we were going all the way - the teams we've had the past few years don't even remotely compare to those teams, in no small part to your next quote:

QUOTE
The lack of cohesion between the defensive units. The LB's and DB's seem out of sync. Also, the DL philosophy may not be meshing with the other units either, I dont know. And what will happen to the DL when the reg season hits and QB's really start using a change in cadence? How many offsides penalties will the numbnuts get then?


In other words, you're saying our defense lacks 'coordination' wink.gif That's because we have a career OL coach coordinating our defense.

I've said 10-6 or 9-7, and I stick by that. We're losing against the elite teams, Pitt/Balt/Det/NO, and we'll drop a couple division games, we should go 4-2 in the division. And of course, there's always the 'Andy special' - that one inexplicable loss that we have to suffer every year - in the past it's been against Oakland, Balt, Arizona, etc. You probably know the ones I'm talking about - this year it could be Cincinnati or Carolina. Of course, we can always pull a win out of one of the mentioned games, perhaps against Pitt, and cancel out our AR special.
koolaidluke
Reid can't be fired, it's the last year of his contract. He just won't be renewed.

I agree that Reid will not be brought back. The org has been moving away from Andy for awhile and if they wanted him back he would have already been re signed. The only way Reid could save his job would be to get to the Superbowl.

Lurie/Roseman are clearly modeling themselves on the Stoolers/Ravens, where a strong owner/GM combo runs the show and the HC is one of many interchangeable parts. After this season they will have their coaching staff set on both sides of the ball, all that's left is to bring in some young guy from outside the organization to take over at the helm.


I assume your 5-11 prediction was a joke. We don't have Donovan McNabb at QB anymore so there is no way we lose 11 games. Donovan McNabb was the biggest fraud in NFL history.
Dreagon
I just remembered the NFC East is playing the AFC North (three playoff teams) and NFC South (two playoff teams) this year. Combine that with the way our divisions teams tend to play each other and I really do think that 10-6 ought to win the division this year.
navyeagles
11-5.

AFC East will be a tough road though..
Flying Dutchman
Count me in the 11-5 club. I really expect more from our entire D this year, as high as they "ranked" last year. Now, Juan has adjusted to the shift and to being force fed a plan that demands he use the Washburn Wide 9 system and personnel be damned. Now everybody involved has had some experience/ training with it and the upgrades (new and returning healthy players) at DL LB, CB and S should help a lot. On O I seriously doubt MV can avoid being laid out for a couple games. Still I have much higher hopes for us remaining competitive in those games with our backups than I did last year. The schedule is my biggest concern. If we make the playoffs though, I give this team, especially this D and our leading O players a real shot at taking over. The SB would be ours for the taking if we earn the invitation.
BirdsWinBaby
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 1 2012, 12:38 PM) *
Reid can't be fired, it's the last year of his contract. He just won't be renewed.


AR is signed thru this season and 2013....people talk like this is his last year because without an extension, 2013 would be the last year of a deal. the 'lame duck' year everyone talks about
koolaidluke
QUOTE (BirdsWinBaby @ Sep 1 2012, 05:54 PM) *
AR is signed thru this season and 2013....people talk like this is his last year because without an extension, 2013 would be the last year of a deal. the 'lame duck' year everyone talks about


Oh.

Well if he doesn't make it to a Superbowl this year or next year he can forget about being renewed. I don't think Lurie even wants him here anymore.


an interesting question is how bad does the team have to be in order for him to be fired at the end of this season.

Let's start with the scenario's where he definitely won't be fired:

scenario 1: Eagles in the Superbowl
scenario 2: Eagles make it to the Superbowl and lose

in scenario 2 you will still have a lot of people clamoring for Andy's head, but the idea of a coach getting fired after making it to the Superbowl is unthinkable

Now in the "minuscule possibility" column:
scenario 3: Eagles lose in NFC Championship game

a head coach has never been fired after losing a championship game, but I think Lurie wants Reid gone enough that he might be willing to do it. Particularly if it was a blowout loss or a loss where a questionable Reid decision cost the team the game

"Still extremely unlikely but more possible"
scenario 4: 2nd round playoff loss. The only case I know of a coach getting fired after a 2nd round loss is Schottenheimer in SD, but his relationship with the team president was much more toxic than Reid's relationship with Lurie. If "scenario 4" plays out, it still seems very unlikely that Reid goes, although almost the entire fanbase will want him gone.

10% chance of getting fired:
scenario 5: loss in the wild card round. I believe if this happens Lurie will prefer to let Andy play out his contract knowing he only has one more year anyway but the fans will be screaming for blood more than they ever have. Lurie might decide to avoid a lame duck year and just chuck Andy.

50-50 chance:
scenario 6: eagles miss the playoffs with a winning record. Keep in mind that such a result virtually guarantees Vick is done in Philly. Either he missed too many games or he didn't play well enough to get the Eags a playoff spot. If, for example, the Eagles end the season on a 3 game win streak with Foles as the starter Lurie might figure it makes sense to bring Andy back and give him one full season with Foles before replacing him after that.

Probably fired:
scenario 7: an 8 and 8 record or worse. With the talent this team has an not even posting a winning record would be unacceptable. Last year there were sky high expectations but legitimate excuses (new DC, disarray at LB and SS, regression of Vick, incompetence of Vince Young, Maclin almost dying, whatever the hell was wrong with DeSean, inability to assimilate Asante, Aso and Cromartie into the same scheme, Allen not being healthy until midway through the season). Going into this season there are no excuses. Everybody had a full offseason, Castillo has a year under his belt, we got rid of our apparently useless secondary coach from last year and all of our guys who are actually playing for us are healthy. Peters is out but at least the guys who we have on the field are 100 percent. No excuses this year. There is so much talent on this team that even if we had to start Edwards we should at least go 9-7.

Although even in this case Lurie might decide to bring Reid back, you got to figure Reid probably goes.

Definitely fired:
scenario 8: the team has a "Ray Rhodes last season" like implosion

Dreagon
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 1 2012, 07:43 PM) *
in scenario 2 you will still have a lot of people clamoring for Andy's head, but the idea of a coach getting fired after making it to the Superbowl is unthinkable


I don't know about that. I've seen a coach get fired after winning two Superbowls in a row.
koolaidluke
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Sep 1 2012, 08:54 PM) *
I don't know about that. I've seen a coach get fired after winning two Superbowls in a row.


oh yeah. Forgot about that one. But Jerry Jones is the worst owner in football (now that Al Davis is dead).

What was amazing was that they managed to win another SB with Switzer. I always thought Switzer was a better HC than he got credit for but still didn't seem like he should have been able to win a Lombardi.
Dreagon
QUOTE (koolaidluke @ Sep 1 2012, 08:47 PM) *
oh yeah. Forgot about that one. But Jerry Jones is the worst owner in football (now that Al Davis is dead).

What was amazing was that they managed to win another SB with Switzer. I always thought Switzer was a better HC than he got credit for but still didn't seem like he should have been able to win a Lombardi.


He didn't win that Lombardi, Aikman did. Aikman was the real leader of that team after Johnson left, or at least as much as a QB could be. Switzer's lack of leadership as a coach is the whole reason that team spun apart and guys like Micheal Irving started putting crap up his nose.
Eyrie
I'll say 11-5 but I have a nasty feeling we'll lose the Division to the NJ VaGiants on tie-breakers.

The LBs and #2 QB are the main improvements I see to last year's team and our main weakness is the loss of Peters.

Mr. Bonko

Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 16 Baltimore 1:00 pm LOSS
Sep 23 @Arizona 4:05 pm LOSS
Sep 30 N.Y. Giants 8:20 pm WIN
Oct 7 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm LOSS
Oct 14 Detroit 1:00 pm LOSS
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Atlanta 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 5 @New Orleans 8:30 pm LOSS
Nov 11 Dallas 4:25 pm WIN
Nov 18 @Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 26 Carolina 8:30 pm WIN
Dec 2 @Dallas 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 9 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 13 Cincinnati 8:20 pm WIN
Dec 23 Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 30 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm LOSS

I am feeling generous this morning so I came up with 9-7, but 5-11 won't surprise me.


I would make this a contest. Whoever picks the most of 16 right wins a crappy prize, but that did not go over to well with roster idea.
Dreagon
QUOTE (Mr. Bonko @ Sep 2 2012, 10:25 AM) *
Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 16 Baltimore 1:00 pm LOSS
Sep 23 @Arizona 4:05 pm LOSS
Sep 30 N.Y. Giants 8:20 pm WIN
Oct 7 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm LOSS
Oct 14 Detroit 1:00 pm LOSS
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Atlanta 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 5 @New Orleans 8:30 pm LOSS
Nov 11 Dallas 4:25 pm WIN
Nov 18 @Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 26 Carolina 8:30 pm WIN
Dec 2 @Dallas 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 9 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 13 Cincinnati 8:20 pm WIN
Dec 23 Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 30 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm LOSS


Odd. I would predict you guys to start stronger than that, and be 3-0 heading into the NY game. From there is when it gets a lot tougher.
HOUSEoPAIN
Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 16 Baltimore 1:00 pm LOSS
Sep 23 @Arizona 4:05 pm WIN*
Sep 30 N.Y. Giants 8:20 pm LOSS
Oct 7 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm LOSS
Oct 14 Detroit 1:00 pm LOSS
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Atlanta 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 5 @New Orleans 8:30 pm LOSS
Nov 11 Dallas 4:25 pm WIN
Nov 18 @Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 26 Carolina 8:30 pm WIN*
Dec 2 @Dallas 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 9 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm WIN*
Dec 13 Cincinnati 8:20 pm WIN*
Dec 23 Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 30 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm WIN

The ones with asterisks represent the possibility of the AR Special, where we pull an inexplicable loss from the jaws of victory - if it were to happen this year, I would lean towards Carolina, but there's other contenders as well - last year, it was Arizona (with Kolb on the sideline telling their defense what play Andy was calling). Also, I don't necessarily think we're 2-4 entering the bye, but we go 1-1 against NY, and it seems like we usually lose at home to them when we split the season series. We should also split Dallas, I think we can handle Washington twice.





HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Sep 2 2012, 11:43 AM) *
Odd. I would predict you guys to start stronger than that, and be 3-0 heading into the NY game. From there is when it gets a lot tougher.


We're not beating Baltimore.
Dreagon
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 2 2012, 10:56 AM) *
We're not beating Baltimore.


It will be early in the season, Vick and Desean Jackson will be fresh and likely not dinged up yet. Of your tough games, I think the Baltimore game has the best chance of yall jumping up and ambushing somebody. I know Andy is sometimes a slow starter, but after last year I think he'll really be trying to counter that.
Pbfan
I feel like people have been so dissapointed by the team in the past that they are overcompensating and saying we're worse than we actually are. Remember we had a strong preseason (yes that does count for something) and we should have a better D than last year. Our offense will probibaly be a little better. I'm saying 11-5
Rick
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 2 2012, 11:56 AM) *
We're not beating Baltimore.

Why? Baltimore isn't the Baltimore of past years. That defense doesn't strike fear in the hearts of an offense any longer. Are they good? Absolutely. Are they that good? Absolutely not. They're at the same level as us. That game can go either way.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 3 2012, 10:39 AM) *
Why? Baltimore isn't the Baltimore of past years. That defense doesn't strike fear in the hearts of an offense any longer. Are they good? Absolutely. Are they that good? Absolutely not. They're at the same level as us. That game can go either way.


They were 12-4 last year, as the #2 seed in the AFC, we aren't close to being at their level - they also haven't skipped a beat since Harbaugh's became coach, they've been an elite team since '08. Rice will run all over us, and I think Harbaugh will pretty much be able to guess what Reid does 90% of the time.

Can we win? Sure. I just wouldn't bet on it.
xsv
I am more optimistic than I usually am. I see a fast start, maybe 6-0 to start the season, and finish with a 12-4 record.

I think we make it to at least the championship game.
Mr. Bonko
QUOTE (xsv @ Sep 3 2012, 05:45 PM) *
I am more optimistic than I usually am. I see a fast start, maybe 6-0 to start the season, and finish with a 12-4 record.

I think we make it to at least the championship game.



Please PM me the contact info of your drug dealer. I need some of that shit.
xsv
We were 10-6 last year if it were not for Avant and Maclin fumbling deep in the opponents territory late in the 4th qtr in two different games last year.

This year I think we're greatly improved...

- I believe Vick will bounce back, albeit still injury prone
- Our oline, dline and d coordinator have a year under their belt and have had a full tc.
- Our LB corps is greatly upgraded
- Our starting CBs are playing in their natural starting positions
- Our backup QB is greatly upgraded
- Our D Line is upgraded
- Our RB may be the MVP of the league, and I think this will tempt Reid to run more.


Phits
QUOTE (xsv @ Sep 3 2012, 08:56 PM) *
We were 10-6 last year if it were not for Avant and Maclin fumbling deep in the opponents territory late in the 4th qtr in two different games last year.


except we were 8-8 and a couple of plays going the other way we could have been 6-10


QUOTE
This year I think we're greatly improved...

- I believe Vick will bounce back, albeit still injury prone
- Our oline, dline and d coordinator have a year under their belt and have had a full tc.
- Our LB corps is greatly upgraded
- Our starting CBs are playing in their natural starting positions
- Our backup QB is greatly upgraded
- Our D Line is upgraded
- Our RB may be the MVP of the league, and I think this will tempt Reid to run more.

Greatly improved is an overstatement, so I will believe it when I see it.
xsv
QUOTE (Phits @ Sep 4 2012, 12:39 AM) *
except we were 8-8 and a couple of plays going the other way we could have been 6-10


I don't think so. Of the 8 games we won, I think we won pretty decidedly.

Which of my 'greatly improved' bullet points did you disagree with?
koolaidluke
There's always a couple of plays that could turn a game or a season around. Whatever we "should" have been, we ended up 8 and 8.

There are two aspects of our game where you are anticipating improvement that I doubt will come: OL and DL.

Our DL last year may have been the greatest pass rushing Dline of all time. It was certainly far and a way the best pass rushing unit in the league. There is room for our line to improve against the run but it can all get worse rushing the passer.

Our OL has lost it's best player. Even if King Dunlap ends up being an above average LT he will be a huge downgrade over Peters. Mathis was awesome last year so I don't expect any improvement from him. Kelce and Watkins do have a great deal of room to improve but who knows if they will. If they get better than it is possible that the line will be improved but even if that is the case, I expect the total improvement to be pretty marginal.


I am optimistic about our secondary and LBs though. I think they will be much improved. The receivers should be better too.

The biggest question mark remains Vick. Nobody knows what to expect from him this year.



our first game is against the Browns that means pretty much no questions will be answered. We will massacre the Browns just like we took apart the Lambs, but then the real season starts. This one could get ugly.
Jerome Brown Experience
QUOTE (Dreagon @ Sep 1 2012, 10:38 PM) *
He didn't win that Lombardi, Aikman did. Aikman was the real leader of that team after Johnson left, or at least as much as a QB could be. Switzer's lack of leadership as a coach is the whole reason that team spun apart and guys like Micheal Irving started putting crap up his nose.



Meh. With the advent of advanced statistics over the last 10 years Troy Aikman looks more and more like Terry Bradshaw in terms of role, and I say that as someone who likes Aikman as much as any Eagle fan can like a Cowboy (not much and begrudginly, but still). Smith, Irvin and that O-line were crazy good, Aikman was kind of along for the ride. He played the role of "QB of the Dallas Cowboys" extremely well, but in truth he was probably not HoF calibre without those other folks around him.

I also think that Switzer gets a touch review. He won multiple national championships and then a SB, which takes some doing. Aikman and Switzer hated each other since Troy left the Sooners to go to UCLA (and no one in Dallas really wants to talk about the reasons behind that one......), so Troy smeared Switzer, which was too bad.

It is what it is, but as great as that Cowboy dynasty was it sure was enigmatic too.
Jerome Brown Experience
Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 16 Baltimore 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 23 @Arizona 4:05 pm WIN
Sep 30 N.Y. Giants 8:20 pm WIN
Oct 7 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm LOSS
Oct 14 Detroit 1:00 pm LOSS
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Atlanta 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 5 @New Orleans 8:30 pm LOSS
Nov 11 Dallas 4:25 pm WIN
Nov 18 @Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 26 Carolina 8:30 pm WIN
Dec 2 @Dallas 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 9 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 13 Cincinnati 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 23 Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 30 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm LOSS

My 11-5.

D Rock
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 1 2012, 12:05 PM) *
I say ten wins for Eagles.

And my expectations dropped a bit since pre camp.

Pre camp I siad we had a SB winning team. First time since before we played OAK in the SB that I thought we'd win it.

I don't see it now:

1. The starting QB has not changed his philosophy on protecting himself. He's pretty much saying to "let him be him". They have a spot for 5-11 200 lb QB's with a thick head like that, it's called the disabled list. Stupid!!

2. The lack of cohesion between the defensive units. The LB's and DB's seem out of sync. Also, the DL philosophy may not be meshing with the other units either, I dont know. And what will happen to the DL when the reg season hits and QB's really start using a change in cadence? How many offsides penalties will the numbnuts get then?

3. Too young! 30 of 53 with two years or less and those young ones on the defense have not had a real DC for their stay. Coaching matters.

Sadly, I down graded to 10-6 and maybe one playoff win before their exit.

Could have been so much better.


I prolly go w/ 9 wins at the moment. My expectations have also fallen since pre camp.

Reasons:

1. I'm certain we're going to see 2011 Vick again and not the 2010 version that was great on so many levels. I believe that 2010 will be looked back on as the exception that proved the rule that Vick, while a phenominal athlete, was a very mediocre quarterback that just happened to have all world physical gifts.

2. Bell is a MAJOR disapointment. He's had all of camp and isn't getting any better at Mudd's technique. I don't see him making major progress while getting 2nd team practice reps.

3. Ryans is either a poor fit for the wide 9, or just wont be getting his explosion back after the achiles after all. Either way, he's going to be pretty mediocre for us at best. He's still a great leader apparently, and hopefully that alone will improve the unit.

4. Safety for me is a major weakness. Allen is a bust. Coleman is an over achiever. JaiJar a whif of comedic proportions. The rest are just guys.

I expected more from Vick, Bell and Ryans. I expected more from the front office re: safety.

We could be great. But I'm seeing too many holes and potential failed fix it jobs on this roster. There's no question we have gobbs of talent. It'll be up to coaching to hide the holes.
Reality Fan
wow.......I won't focus on any one comment here but some were really off the wall.....

This team looks pretty good to me.......it has serious talent all over the roster but I will address some things I like and don't like

Vick: yes he got hurt but that may be a good thing....he now has state of the art rib protection and if you check out the company providing it you will see he is not wearing their off the rack stuff.....his ribs, the reason he has been hurt the last 2 years, should be well protected......getting hurt may have reinforced that he needs to be wary of hits before it actually cost him real games......

The O-line....missing Peters hurts but overall they should be decent and with the talent level on that side of the ball that may be enough......a healthy Celek helps and they seem to have good depth at RB even though they are rookies...I am not a Lewis fan....

Defense: the D line looked very good even without Babin and now he is back......Ryans play has been greatly exaggerated in the wrong way....the beat writers jumped all over his first game but they died off him as each game was played....he was absent in the first game but got progressively better....was he superman? no but he is also adjusting to playing behind the wide nine for the first time and he seemed to get it as the games went on......Kendrichs looks good but we will see how that goes.....the corners are solid but Boykin is a concern as a rookie although Hanson was pretty ordinary to me....my only real concern is that safeties....

overall they look good...I understand Vegas making the line 10 1/2 and some of the silliness of 5-11 is just either bitterness or stupidity......not sure which.....This team was 8-8 last year and they are clearly better and arguably deeper.
Going 8-8 they won every game by at least a TD and 6 by 13 or more and they blew 5 4th quarter leads that is highly unlikely that that will happen again.....

I always say 10-6 but I think 11 is pretty doable.......

I will go with 11 wins....I can't imagine anything less than 10-6


late note: Brian Baldinger just echoed the same thing on Ryans re: learning or adjusting to playing behind the wide nine...go figure
nephillymike
FWIW, I run a pool every year for a good bit of change where one of the tiebreakers is number of Eagles wins. We had almost thirty people in the pool, all but three from the Philly area, and here was the breakdown of predicted Eagles wins:

12 W =1
11 W = 3
10 W = 13
9 W = 9
8 W = 1
7 W = 1

Avg was 9.7 wins. Since it's for money, it's betting with their head, not their heart.

Given that the Vegas is close to 10 or 10-1/2, it seems like the pool public is slightly lower expectations than the book which is normally NOT the case.
Jerome Brown Experience
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 5 2012, 07:33 PM) *
FWIW, I run a pool every year for a good bit of change where one of the tiebreakers is number of Eagles wins. We had almost thirty people in the pool, all but three from the Philly area, and here was the breakdown of predicted Eagles wins:

12 W =1
11 W = 3
10 W = 13
9 W = 9
8 W = 1
7 W = 1

Avg was 9.7 wins. Since it's for money, it's betting with their head, not their heart.

Given that the Vegas is close to 10 or 10-1/2, it seems like the pool public is slightly lower expectations than the book which is normally NOT the case.


I am less sure that it is betting with head and not heart or gut.

The Vegas line is the great equilibrium point (and it is head not heart too as it is only for money) of what America thinks, so you would expect about 50 percent below 10.5 and 50 percent above 10.5. Instead you have 13 at 10 (which is pretty reasonable) and then 11 under and only 4 above. There are 2 people who selected 2.5+ under the Vegas line and only 1 person who selected 1.5 over.

Just odd.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 5 2012, 07:33 PM) *
Given that the Vegas is close to 10 or 10-1/2, it seems like the pool public is slightly lower expectations than the book which is normally NOT the case.


Vegas lines are solely based on action though - so if 10,000 morons decided to bet millions of dollars on them winning 14 games tomorrow, the Vegas line would dramatically rise. A lot of times Vegas lines are in the range of common sense for the simple fact that most people who know and bet on sports have common sense, but there's always anomalies. At this point, for instance, the Cowboys are favored to win the Super Bowl over the Giants and Lions, which is just plain stupid - like many Cowboys fans.....
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 6 2012, 08:36 AM) *
Vegas lines are solely based on action though - so if 10,000 morons decided to bet millions of dollars on them winning 14 games tomorrow, the Vegas line would dramatically rise. A lot of times Vegas lines are in the range of common sense for the simple fact that most people who know and bet on sports have common sense, but there's always anomalies. At this point, for instance, the Cowboys are favored to win the Super Bowl over the Giants and Lions, which is just plain stupid - like many Cowboys fans.....



hate to disappoint you but action moves the line it doesn't set them.......the boys in Vegas get information we can only dream of that they use to set the initial line.........and if you bet on the Giants I would be worried after last night because they again have no running game and their secondary looks really bad......
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 6 2012, 06:40 PM) *
hate to disappoint you but action moves the line it doesn't set them.......the boys in Vegas get information we can only dream of that they use to set the initial line.........and if you bet on the Giants I would be worried after last night because they again have no running game and their secondary looks really bad......


Yeah, the experts set the line first - and then action moves it up and down, once the lines are set they're never 'set' again, it's all based on action. I wouldn't bet on the Giants to win the SB, but I would certainly give them and the Lions a much better shot than the Cowboys - that was my point, Cowboys fans or retards in general have bet on them enough to move the line past other teams. Do you think the Eagles are better than 28 or 29 teams? The line would suggest so.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 6 2012, 09:03 PM) *
Yeah, the experts set the line first - and then action moves it up and down, once the lines are set they're never 'set' again, it's all based on action. I wouldn't bet on the Giants to win the SB, but I would certainly give them and the Lions a much better shot than the Cowboys - that was my point, Cowboys fans or retards in general have bet on them enough to move the line past other teams. Do you think the Eagles are better than 28 or 29 teams? The line would suggest so.


I don't recall anyone suggesting that they are "set again" I do think the Eagles are one of the better teams in the league. Their demise last year was not so much that their D was shaky early on, it was the number of very costly turnovers that they had. If they cut down on them even a little and the D is only marginally better this is a very good team. I expect the D to be much better and I think the number of "experts" feel the same way. I looked at over 10 power rankings from this week and the worst I saw was 9th(PFT hates the Eagles and Reid for some reason) but most were in the 4-6 range. I would agree on the lions but I am not so sure about the Giants, they have no running game...Bradshaw is good but not anymore than that...they won it all last year but they got hot more than they were just a great team......I am, however, used to the Cowboys being proclaimed great at the start of every season.


HOUSEoPAIN
9/1 Odds

These are the latest Vegas odds - of course NE and GB are at the top as they should be, I just can't imagine dropping money on us to get 11/1. Amazingly, NO is at 18/1 I'd drop money on them in a heartbeat, the Ravens aren't a bad pick either at that price. 25/1 for Detroit is a good deal.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 7 2012, 12:04 PM) *
9/1 Odds

These are the latest Vegas odds - of course NE and GB are at the top as they should be, I just can't imagine dropping money on us to get 11/1. Amazingly, NO is at 18/1 I'd drop money on them in a heartbeat, the Ravens aren't a bad pick either at that price. 25/1 for Detroit is a good deal.


my guess is that all the turmoil in NO from the suspensions is the reason for that.....and their D really is not very good
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 7 2012, 07:11 PM) *
my guess is that all the turmoil in NO from the suspensions is the reason for that.....and their D really is not very good


Vilma's gonna be playing it looks like - if Spags can earn his keep they'll be fine.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Sep 7 2012, 08:19 PM) *
Vilma's gonna be playing it looks like - if Spags can earn his keep they'll be fine.


it doesn't look like it......the follow up was that while they "lifted" the suspensions they did not invalidate them, they sent it back to the league office to clarify the rules under which they will suspend them. There was confusion whether the league was using it's "detriment to the game" clause or its fiscal authority. The league is already moving to re intitute the suspensions under a more defined position which was all the master asked for. They might get a week but then they go bye bye again.
Jerome Brown Experience
QUOTE (Jerome Brown Experience @ Sep 4 2012, 02:30 PM) *
Sep 9 @Cleveland 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 16 Baltimore 1:00 pm WIN
Sep 23 @Arizona 4:05 pm WIN
Sep 30 N.Y. Giants 8:20 pm WIN
Oct 7 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm LOSS
Oct 14 Detroit 1:00 pm LOSS
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Atlanta 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 5 @New Orleans 8:30 pm LOSS
Nov 11 Dallas 4:25 pm WIN
Nov 18 @Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Nov 26 Carolina 8:30 pm WIN
Dec 2 @Dallas 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 9 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 13 Cincinnati 8:20 pm LOSS
Dec 23 Washington 1:00 pm WIN
Dec 30 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm LOSS

My 11-5.


I just felt it was important to remind everyone that I am an absolute fucking genius.
xsv
QUOTE (xsv @ Sep 3 2012, 05:45 PM) *
I am more optimistic than I usually am. I see a fast start, maybe 6-0 to start the season, and finish with a 12-4 record.

I think we make it to at least the championship game.


After JBE's shameless self promotion, I wanted to prove to RF that I was pretty darn optimistic about this season as well. biggrin.gif
GQSmooth
People shouldn't be realigning their predictions. I felt and still see 10-6 barring major injuries. The schedule this year is physical and at least one team in the NFC East is getting better. Not to mention TB and Carolina.
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