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Full Version: which team do you think represents the best value SB futures bet at this point?
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Not necessarily your pick to win the Super Bowl, but of these wagers which one do you think offers the best value? Thinking about spreading around a few different plays just to give me some horses to sweat through the season.

I think there's good value on Cinnci and Carolina at 40/1, and even though I'm not sure how good/bad Tampa Bay is I think 200-1 is generous conisdering they killed free agency and Raheem Morris is no longer HC after basically losing the team last season. Denver at 20-1 is tempting to considering the situation with their division wide open and they got Peyton fucking Manning. Interestingly enough, I think the Eagles are pretty overvalued at 8-1 and the rest of the division is a bit undervalued. I guess that says more about the division/NFC as a whole rather than quality of the teams though.

Lines are from vegasinsider, so may not be 100% towards the bottom range of the teams, but should serve as a decent guide.

Who ya got?

New England Patriots 9/2
Green Bay Packers 5/1
San Francisco 49ers 7/1
Philadelphia Eagles 8/1
Houston Texans 10/1
Baltimore Ravens 15/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 15/1
Denver Broncos 20/1
Detroit Lions 20/1
Chicago Bears 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Dallas Cowboys 25/1
New York Giants 25/1
New York Jets 30/1
San Diego Chargers 30/1
Cincinnati Bengals 40/1
Carolina Panthers 40/1
Kansas City Chiefs 40/1
Buffalo Bills 50/1
Miami Dolphins 60/1
Tennessee Titans 60/1
Oakland Raiders 60/1
Seattle Seahawks 70/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Washington Redskins 100/1
Indianapolis Colts 100/1
Minnesota Vikings 100/1
Cleveland Browns 200/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 200/1
St Louis Rams 200/1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 200/1
Putting the Giants at 25-1 looks like an undersell. Sure, its difficult to repeat, but if Eli keeps going they way he did through the second part of 2011, there's no reason to think they don't have a good shot to win it all again.
If I were to put money on a 200/1 shot, it would be St. Louis. That division is winnable and I think Bradford still has a chance to be a solid QB. Fisher should inevitably improve their awful defense from a year ago.
I cringe to say it, but the Jets might be undervalued. I put them more at a 20-1 than a 30-1.
All of the 15/1 picks are very solid, especially NO.

Detroit at 20/1? Make that my best 'value' pick. Also remember that these odds are based off of action, not just a bookie 'guessing.' Many people are picking the Eagles to win, and of course you always have your GB/NE. If a shitload of people started betting on Detroit you'd see those odds drop a lot.
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