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nephillymike
After last night's great comeback win, the Phils sit at 34-38 as of June 23rd, with a .472 winning percentage.

This year, there are five teams in each league who make the playoffs, one more than in the past.

So I did a little research. I looked at the year end standings for the twelve years 2000-2011 and took the four playoff teams from each league, and what would have been the fifth playoff team (2nd wild card), and researched the winning percentages of those five teams as of 6/23 that year, to see how many were the same or worse than the Phils current .472 winning percentage.

With a sample of 10 playoff teams per year (5 for each league) and 12 years, we have a sample of 120 would be playoff teams.

The good news, is that is has been done before. The good news is when it happens, it happens in the NL (worse winning percentages becasue AL kicks ass in interleague play). The bad news is that it has only happened four times over the twelve years:

Year......Team.......WP 6/23......Playoff Result
2005......HOU........0.443...........Lost in WS
2004......ATL.........0.457...........Lost in NLDS
2007......CHC........0.466...........Lost in NLDS
2008......LAD........0.467...........Lost in NLCS
=============================
2012......PHI.........0.472...........??????
=============================
2001......OAK.........0.479...........Lost in ALDS
2006......PHI..........0.479...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2008......NYM.........0.493...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2003......FLA..........0.494...........Won the World Series
========================================================================

So there you have it. There is reason to believe!!! Only four in 120 reason (3.3%), but reason nonetheless.

Go Phils!! At least ya can watch knowing we have an honest chance and come training camp in a month, make your decision then!!
HOUSEoPAIN
Last night's win was just what we needed, now we're on a nice little winning streak, and that was with our worst pitcher on the mound, a usual guaranteed loss.

I've never panicked, they have sucked and been frankly unwatchable at times this year, but consider the fact that 3 of our top players haven't played hardly at all - Halladay, Howard, and Utley. Our offense has actually been pretty good, it's nice to see that Charlie seems to have realized his starter who's batting .350 should be batting higher in the order than 6th. I wanted Pierre to be our leadoff and bump Rollins to 6th, but lately Jimmy has been playing well and has his average way up from last month. Our hole at 2nd base should be filled this week or next when Chase comes back, and Thome/Wigginton have been doing a fine job at 1st base until the strikeout king comes back in July. Really the only major problem I see is our middle relief - Bastardo is good, the rest suck ass. Valdes and Qualls were good last night, but I think we need to make a move to get one more solid reliever in there.

Basically, once everyone is healthy our bench should have Mayberry, Martinez, Thome, Wigginton, and Nix. That's a pretty damn good bench, backing up a good lineup and good staff. I still think we end up winning the division.
Zero
I don't see a chance, espeically after yesterday's double loss. Too many aged players and bench players playing every day. And, to steal a line from Lurie, it's fool's gold to think that Utley, et al will turn this around. This was a jinxed year from the start for some reason and I don't see it changing. Pessy Mystic.
CT_Eagle
QUOTE (Zero @ Jun 25 2012, 11:04 AM) *
I don't see a chance, espeically after yesterday's double loss. Too many aged players and bench players playing every day. And, to steal a line from Lurie, it's fool's gold to think that Utley, et al will turn this around. This was a jinxed year from the start for some reason and I don't see it changing. Pessy Mystic.


I don't see this as a jinxed year at all. I think this is the end of the line for this group of Phillies. Lee is aging and I think Hamels is all but gone after this year. Utley will never be what he once was. This team has too many aging starters and holes to fill. Time for the rebuild.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Zero @ Jun 25 2012, 06:04 AM) *
I don't see a chance, espeically after yesterday's double loss


It's June 25th.....yeah it's not good, but if we're gonna plan our trip down Broad Street in February already, can we at least not write the Phils off yet? tongue.gif
TGryn
Everyone remembers the '93 Cinderella season. Nobody remembers what happened the year after:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Philadel...Phillies_season
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/1994.shtml
Basically, they traded Mitch and Mulholland, then Schilling went on the DL after going 0-7 for the year (he'd finish 2-8). They were saved by the strike, which cancelled the rest of the year and the World Series. I figure we're going through the same thing: just one of those years.

The uber-optimists are still hoping that getting Utley/Howard/Halladay back will restore the mojo. Well, maybe. Lee can't go winless all season (can he?), but the thing about hanging one's hat on injured guys is that they're just as likely to reinjure as to light things up as soon as they come back. The most likely "best" result is that they all come back and gradually work their way into form, but that's not going to be good enough to turn things around in time.

On a side note: any interest in bringing Moyer back? He actually did OK for a dismal Rockies team, and looked good in AAA for the Orioles, but is again a FA. I think there'd be a case to be made for him, but he burned his bridges here by making it known at the time that he was unhappy doing relief instead of being a starter, and that was before his injury.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE
Everyone remembers the '93 Cinderella season. Nobody remembers what happened the year after:


Yeah actually I do, quite well - and I wish I didn't. But comparing the Phillies of '07-'11 and now to the Phillies of '93 and '94 is beyond ridiculous. We had a collection of mediocre misfits who happened to all have career years in the same season - and no matter what Fregosi did, it worked, at least until game 6 of the WS. We have had a consistent group of solid to star players - for christ's sakes, we won 102 games last year. It's not like we're in 're-building mode.'

QUOTE
The uber-optimists are still hoping that getting Utley/Howard/Halladay back will restore the mojo


I find it laughable that on a site where we have people talking about our inevitable Super Bowl in late June.....to a franchise that has never won one, under a coach who has never been able to beat good teams consistently, competing with the strongest NFC in recent memory.....you can refer to someone who hasn't written off the Phils yet as an 'uber-optimist.' Besides the fact that we're 8 games out with over 3 months to play, yes my friend, replacing Kendrick, Martinez, and Wigginton with Halladay, Utley, and Howard should actually improve the team quite a bit, believe it or not. Also Pierre has been rock-solid, Hamels is on pace for his best year by far, and Ruiz of course is one of the top hitters in the game, these are things we didn't have the past few years. Also as I've said, once we have our core starters back, our bench will be superb.

QUOTE
On a side note: any interest in bringing Moyer back?


My only real worry once we're healthy is our middle relief, as I've mentioned. If he would rather retire then fine, but I would most definitely give him a shot at middle relief, to see if he can still get a batter or two out in clutch situations. He did surprisingly well this year as a 49-year old starter, though obviously not good enough.
TGryn
Well, they're 0-6 since Utley's return, soon to be 0-7 unless they find a way to overcome the current eight run deficit to the Mets tonight.

This is a team that got old and bad fast. You are what your record says you are, and at this pace 100 losses for the Phils this year isn't out of the question. They had a good run, but everything comes to an end. Trading Victorino and Hamels might well be the smart move to make, unpopular as it would be. The cupboard is quite bare in the minors compared to what it used to be, and restocking takes more of a priority with every loss that moves them further and further out of contention.
philly rabbit
QUOTE (TGryn @ Jul 3 2012, 08:13 PM) *
Well, they're 0-6 since Utley's return, soon to be 0-7 unless they find a way to overcome the current eight run deficit to the Mets tonight.

This is a team that got old and bad fast. You are what your record says you are, and at this pace 100 losses for the Phils this year isn't out of the question. They had a good run, but everything comes to an end. Trading Victorino and Hamels might well be the smart move to make, unpopular as it would be. The cupboard is quite bare in the minors compared to what it used to be, and restocking takes more of a priority with every loss that moves them further and further out of contention.



This season is a throw away .. forget about it.

But I have every confidence the Phillies will get back into contention in about 2-3 years from now. Everything they've done in the past few years like bringing in Halladay, resigning Lee, and even resigning Rollins has been an effort to win another world series with the veteran core of players they already had. Well it didn't work out but I give them great credit for at least trying.

Now they turn toward the future and they have a lot of work to do and many holes to fill and lots of salary to dump but there's one thing the Phillies have and that's plenty of money and they've shown that they're not afraid to spend it. If they make the right moves with all that money and I'm confident they will, they'll be back shortly.
HOUSEoPAIN
I was at the game last night - absolute fucking disgrace.

I don't know what's to be done - I stick by my statement that the season isn't over yet, I would wait until the trade deadline nears to see if definite improvement has been made, and if it has, we don't scuttle the ship. It's going to cost a lot of money to keep Hamels, and if we can get some solid players for him at that point I wouldn't be opposed to it - as far as Victorino is concerned, we can just dump him for all I care.

What isn't helping is Charlie's insistence that we keep batting Rollins first and keep platooning Pierre and Mayberry, has Pierre not earned a goddam starting position yet? Pierre should leadoff, and Jimmy should bat 6th.

100 losses? Are you kidding me? I may be an Eagles pessimist (and rightly so), but you're my counterpart on the other side. That's ridiculous.
nephillymike
They are DONE!

Here were the numbers a few weeks ago:

Year......Team.......WP 6/23......Playoff Result
2005......HOU........0.443...........Lost in WS
2004......ATL.........0.457...........Lost in NLDS
2007......CHC........0.466...........Lost in NLDS
2008......LAD........0.467...........Lost in NLCS
=============================
2012......PHI.........0.472...........??????
=============================
2001......OAK.........0.479...........Lost in ALDS
2006......PHI..........0.479...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2008......NYM.........0.493...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2003......FLA..........0.494...........Won the World Series

And now, as of July 4th, the eight teams above, excluding the 2012 Phils had winning %'s as follows;
'05 HOU .481
'04 ATL .494
'07 CHC .506
'08 LAD .488
===========
'01 OAK .494
'06 PHI .463
'08 NYM .488
'03 FLA .506

and the '12 PHILS come in at .439, well below all of the above Cinderellas. It's over. Who would have thunk it so early in the year.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jul 4 2012, 01:48 PM) *
They are DONE!

Here were the numbers a few weeks ago:

Year......Team.......WP 6/23......Playoff Result
2005......HOU........0.443...........Lost in WS
2004......ATL.........0.457...........Lost in NLDS
2007......CHC........0.466...........Lost in NLDS
2008......LAD........0.467...........Lost in NLCS
=============================
2012......PHI.........0.472...........??????
=============================
2001......OAK.........0.479...........Lost in ALDS
2006......PHI..........0.479...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2008......NYM.........0.493...........5th Best Team, no playoff
2003......FLA..........0.494...........Won the World Series

And now, as of July 4th, the eight teams above, excluding the 2012 Phils had winning %'s as follows;
'05 HOU .481
'04 ATL .494
'07 CHC .506
'08 LAD .488
===========
'01 OAK .494
'06 PHI .463
'08 NYM .488
'03 FLA .506

and the '12 PHILS come in at .439, well below all of the above Cinderellas. It's over. Who would have thunk it so early in the year.



Yeah yeah - again, my point is this - YOU have already predicted an Eagles Super Bowl win - that is much more ludicrous than not writing off the Phils just yet
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Jul 4 2012, 02:06 PM) *
Yeah yeah - again, my point is this - YOU have already predicted an Eagles Super Bowl win - that is much more ludicrous than not writing off the Phils just yet



Hey, I'm probably the biggest Phils fan on this board so reality is killing me!!

If the Iggs have an even shot as any other NFL team to win the SB, they have a 1/32 shot or 3% chance, which was the Phils historical chance until the recent two week swoon. And my Sb prediction was the first time I said they would win a SB since the eve before the 1980 Oakland -Eagles game, so I'm not a pollyanna.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jul 5 2012, 10:19 AM) *
Hey, I'm probably the biggest Phils fan on this board so reality is killing me!!


I would dispute that in a friendly way tongue.gif

Look all I'm saying is that we'll be healthy before the trade deadline, and will see a true look at what we can expect from our cast - and if we don't see definite improvement, then we can have a firesale and rebuild. But I still think we will right the ship once we are completely healthy. We shall see, I hope to God we have something to watch besides pre-season football in August. (and no, the Olympics don't count apart from watching women's volleyball)
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Jul 5 2012, 10:33 AM) *
I would dispute that in a friendly way tongue.gif

Look all I'm saying is that we'll be healthy before the trade deadline, and will see a true look at what we can expect from our cast - and if we don't see definite improvement, then we can have a firesale and rebuild. But I still think we will right the ship once we are completely healthy. We shall see, I hope to God we have something to watch besides pre-season football in August. (and no, the Olympics don't count apart from watching women's volleyball)



HOP,

I differ than most of the pundits in that even if this is a poor season, I don't have a fire sale. Hamels can be a main stay and bridge us to the next era. They only have to pay him and Lee and Roy for a few years together, so it's not as bad as it looks. If last year Beltran is any guide, you will get one star A level prospect, and we all know how fickle predictions are on those type players. Victorino is having a off year so far, but he is a borderline AS CF most years. I wouldn't be in a hurry to let him go either, especially given the options and window for winning we are under. Polanco, OK it's time. But even after a bad year for this team, I keep them together and go out and win next year.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jul 5 2012, 12:46 PM) *
HOP,

I differ than most of the pundits in that even if this is a poor season, I don't have a fire sale. Hamels can be a main stay and bridge us to the next era. They only have to pay him and Lee and Roy for a few years together, so it's not as bad as it looks. If last year Beltran is any guide, you will get one star A level prospect, and we all know how fickle predictions are on those type players. Victorino is having a off year so far, but he is a borderline AS CF most years. I wouldn't be in a hurry to let him go either, especially given the options and window for winning we are under. Polanco, OK it's time. But even after a bad year for this team, I keep them together and go out and win next year.


I didn't mean a literal fire-sale, I'm specifically referring to getting something good for Hamels/Victorino - the last two years we've had a number of 'future stars' turn out to really suck. We've also picked up a few good players who are not spring chickens, and can't be counted on for the long haul (Pierre, Nix, etc.). Our core starters are still good overall, but if we aren't contenders come the trade deadline, I wouldn't expect Hamels to stay here without offering ihm half the franchise - the Dodgers are licking their chops, and he's from Southern California. The ideal scenario is if he thinks we can still win a ring and we make him a comparable offer to LA, we can keep him, but I'm not sure how realistics that is. A healthy Lance Nix in left and Juan Pierre in center isn't looking bad right now, but we need to bring up some folks who are actually going to live up to their expectations - one of our main issues is the complete bombing out of Brown, Francisco, and now Mayberry. And as I mentioned before, our middle relief is a disgrace.
TGryn
First three paragraphs from Jody Mac's weekly writeup seemed relevant:
QUOTE
This Phillie season is feeling like a bottomless pit. You just keep going further and further and further down with no end in sight. The return of Chase Utley was supposed to lift and stabilize the Phils. They are 1-10 since his return. Ryan Howard's return was going to bring balance to the lineup and put the pieces where they belonged. Despite Howard looking OK swinging the bat, the Phils were swept in his return series against the Braves this past weekend. Roy Halladay should return to the rotation shortly and I expect him to pitch closer to the 2.44 and 2.35 ERAs he had in his first two Phillie season rather than the 3.98 he took with him to the DL. But he can only pitch every fifth day!

The Phillies have dug themselves a hole that is Grand Canyon-esque. Fourteen games out of first in the east and ten games out of the second wild card spot. While they have greatly under-achieved this year, the drastic turn around necessary just doesn't seem possible. The run of five consecutive divisional championships and playoff appearances appears to be over. These things happen! The question becomes how do they prevent the reversal of fortune from continuing as long winning era lasted. Do they trade off veteran commodities for some younger pieces?If so, does that include Cole Hamels? On Sunday Hamels told Leslie Gudel of Comcast SportsNet that he would not be offended if the Phillies dealt him and would definitely consider returning via free agency after the year, much like his rotation mate Cliff Lee did. That could be a game plan GM Ruben Amaro employs. The second half of this season is going to have a distinctly different feel to it. The games will not carry the importance they have the last half decade. Your viewing will be dictated by how big a fan you are. Do you root for the red pinstripes or for the winning? You will answer that question for yourself.

From the misery loves company files, the hometown 25 are not the only NL squad wondering, what happened in the first half. The three other teams that made the post-season last year, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Arizona would also be free to head home at the end of the season if this year were to end now. Nah, no one is feeling the kind of pain we are here in Philly. Deal with it, live with it; hopefully it will make you stronger!!

Trading Hamels with the hopes of getting him back again a la Cliff Lee is interesting, but risky. I know the Dodgers are very interested in him if/when Hamels becomes available...well, them, and every other team.

The end of July and all of August is heavy with divisional games. That's good, in that they can make up a lot of ground quickly, but it also means they could be beyond even wishing by mid-August if they don't start winning series.
TGryn
Well, the next 48 hours should be "interesting." Amaro had staked out the Braves series as a demarcation line, and we got swept. The good news is they got Hamels' deal done. I'd like to see them move Blanton, Victorino, and Pierre for prospects, and possibly Lee and Wigginton and Pence as well. I'm assuming the deals they gave to Doc and Rollins makes them pretty much unmovable, and I'm not sure they'd get value for them anyway. Ditto for Utley and Howard: I think we'll get nibbles from teams figuring they can get them on the cheap coming off the injuries, but the upside on them for next year is much higher than what we'd get in return, most likely.

What'll be interesting is if some team comes asking after Ruiz, who's arguably the team MVP this year. They could get something really good for him if a team sees him as a guy to help with the bat and manage their pitching staff, but I'm not sure what the Phils would do at catcher without him. Prospect-wise, Valle isn't ready and they traded away Marson and D'Arnaud the past couple of years. They could platoon Kratz and Schneider now that the latter's almost ready to come back: that isn't nearly the offensive punch that Ruiz gives you, but again, we're assuming they're writing off the rest of the year.

Time to move on and start positioning for 2013, as best they can.
nephillymike
In the crooner voice of Dandy Don Meredith:

"Turn out the lights the party's over they say that all good things must end
Let's call it a night the party's over and tomorrow starts the same old thing again"

Tis a sad day in Mudville.

Nobody to help out from the farm, salary cap strained for years ahead.

How good is the current roster?

How do you go from 102 wins to this pathetic piece of shit team (based on perfromance, not names) in one year?

So let's say we trade Victorino and Blanton for a few prospects. And we don't sign Polly for next year.

Maybe we make do with a new #5 starter.

Then we have a few AA or A prospects and we need a CF and 3B that can play right now. We don't have those players in our system, and it's likely the prospects we get aren't major league ready.

So with the saved $20 M or so per year we shed, we have to find a CF and 3B up to the levels that Shane and Poly played in 2011. And we prolly don't get the $20M b/c we bumped up Hamels (prolly rightfully so).

All this and it's only July 29th!!!

They couldn't get me to September 1st??

I'm wondering. If we're in the Yanks and Red Sox realm of salaries now, have either of them had a team so bad in the 2000's? I don't remember one. That's epic failure. $170M payroll and a piece of shit performance.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jul 29 2012, 09:59 PM) *
I'm wondering. If we're in the Yanks and Red Sox realm of salaries now, have either of them had a team so bad in the 2000's? I don't remember one. That's epic failure. $170M payroll and a piece of shit performance.


Sad to say, we're looking more and more like the Mets of old - lots of talent, lots of money being spent, lots of pathetic efforts.

Things truly looking up for a while there, they were 8-4 since the break, they were healthy, and have(had) two big series against the NL East and Wild card leaders - and they get swept.

We can get a couple decent prospects/players for Victorino, maybe plug the hole at 3rd base with a cheap but promising young player, use the other pick to try to find some middle relief. We can get by with Doc, Hamels, Lee, Worley, and a random #5 - no Kendrick though, gotta keep Kendrick in the bullpen.

The loss of Polanco and Blanton will help out moneywise. The big offseason move? Get Michael Bourn. It'll be like signing 26-year old Shane Victorino, except he's even faster. He's gotta be your leadoff hitter, I honestly wonder if Charlie Manuel has the guts to tell Rollins he isn't a leadoff hitter anymore.
nephillymike
Victorino and Pence for not much really.

Sad!

Saw something in the PDN this AM.

Thru 102 games, the Phils have scored as many runs as this point last year. Not bad when you consider how much time Utley and Howard missed this 102 games vs. last year's first 102 games.

During that same period, we've allowed 126 more runs than last year. Our starting pitching ERA is up to 4.05 from 2.95 last year. By my math, that's roughly 80 more runs allowed by the starters and 46 by the bullpen.

It's the pitching that's let us down.

They just said that 90 years ago, the A's went from winning 100 to losing 100 the next year. we're approaching history.

Nothing to do. No nightly Phils to watch.

And it's only July 31st!
TGryn
It makes sense in terms of restocking the farm - got one of the Giants' best prospects and a pitcher who's a former Dodgers' 1st round pick. Lindblom could develop into a solid middle relief guy who's under contract for 5 (?) more years. Plus, they dump enough salary to avoid the luxury tax, reportedly.

Both Victorino and Pence underperformed this year, and I think Victorino is a FA after the year is done too, so there were definite limits on what they could get for them. No real help in the deals for this year, but 2012's a writeoff anyway.

A baseball expert-type who was on WIP said that Lee was more likely to get through waivers than Blanton because of the former's huge salary, and the reason more deals for guys like Blanton didn't get done was because the Phils didn't want to cover most of their salaries.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (TGryn @ Jul 31 2012, 07:24 PM) *
It makes sense in terms of restocking the farm - got one of the Giants' best prospects and a pitcher who's a former Dodgers' 1st round pick. Lindblom could develop into a solid middle relief guy who's under contract for 5 (?) more years. Plus, they dump enough salary to avoid the luxury tax, reportedly.

Both Victorino and Pence underperformed this year, and I think Victorino is a FA after the year is done too, so there were definite limits on what they could get for them. No real help in the deals for this year, but 2012's a writeoff anyway.

A baseball expert-type who was on WIP said that Lee was more likely to get through waivers than Blanton because of the former's huge salary, and the reason more deals for guys like Blanton didn't get done was because the Phils didn't want to cover most of their salaries.


I actually liked the Victorino deal - you can argue that with Dominic Brown coming back up, and getting solid relief pitching, they actually made themselves better. The Pence deal? It was necessary, but obviously they're conceding the year.

The money we'll save on Pence's arbitration is what we now refer to as 'Bourn money'
nephillymike
QUOTE (TGryn @ Jul 31 2012, 06:24 PM) *
It makes sense in terms of restocking the farm - got one of the Giants' best prospects and a pitcher who's a former Dodgers' 1st round pick. Lindblom could develop into a solid middle relief guy who's under contract for 5 (?) more years. Plus, they dump enough salary to avoid the luxury tax, reportedly.

Both Victorino and Pence underperformed this year, and I think Victorino is a FA after the year is done too, so there were definite limits on what they could get for them. No real help in the deals for this year, but 2012's a writeoff anyway.

A baseball expert-type who was on WIP said that Lee was more likely to get through waivers than Blanton because of the former's huge salary, and the reason more deals for guys like Blanton didn't get done was because the Phils didn't want to cover most of their salaries.


About that salary situation. If Blanton makes $10M for 162 games with 60 games left would mean he's got $3.7M left. They want the Phils to pick up some of that? I don't remember this being a common bargaining chip in previous years' trade deadline deals do you? Especially if we get a ML player in return, then you save that salary as an offset.
nephillymike
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Jul 31 2012, 06:34 PM) *
I actually liked the Victorino deal - you can argue that with Dominic Brown coming back up, and getting solid relief pitching, they actually made themselves better. The Pence deal? It was necessary, but obviously they're conceding the year.

The money we'll save on Pence's arbitration is what we now refer to as 'Bourn money'




HOP,

Your argument fell apart with the opening phrase:

"You can argue that with Domonic Brown coming back up"

It's impossible to recover from that opening line!! sad.gif

HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Jul 31 2012, 08:58 PM) *
HOP,

Your argument fell apart with the opening phrase:

"You can argue that with Domonic Brown coming back up"

It's impossible to recover from that opening line!! sad.gif


Why? Because he didn't light the world on fire at age 22 and 23? He was the top prospect in the major leagues just 2 years ago, and his latest stint in triple-A he did quite well. Now he gets another crack at it, and he's replacing someone who was having a really shitty year. He has huge upside potential, and if he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out, he'll still make good trade bait for 2-3 years as other teams will want to give him a chance.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Aug 1 2012, 08:39 AM) *
Why? Because he didn't light the world on fire at age 22 and 23? He was the top prospect in the major leagues just 2 years ago, and his latest stint in triple-A he did quite well. Now he gets another crack at it, and he's replacing someone who was having a really shitty year. He has huge upside potential, and if he doesn't pan out, he doesn't pan out, he'll still make good trade bait for 2-3 years as other teams will want to give him a chance.

Agree with most of this, other than the trade bait if he doesn't pan out.

I think he's going to be good though. We should have never made the trade for Pence to begin with. We were the best team in baseball and the value he was going to add was minimal come playoff time.

Instead, we gave up 3 very good prospects. Amaro is trash.
nephillymike
Here are Brown's numbers in three partial years of AAA ball:

Games = 129
AB = 465
Hits = 136
2B = 25
3B = 3
HR = 13
BB = 53
Avg = .292
OBP = .364
Slug% = .443
OBPS = .807

600 PA season = 29 2B's, 3 3B's, 15 HR's 61BB's

The OBPS% puts him 28th among OF's in MLB this year, which is pretty solid.

The numbers were better than I thought. The 15 projected HR's was lighter though. And he has serious fielding issues, worse than Pence's mishaps this year.

We'll see. The games mean nothing this year, let's see what the kid has.
nephillymike
dupe
Zero
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Aug 1 2012, 07:50 PM) *
The games mean nothing this year, let's see what the kid has.

Yup. This is a trial period for him and Shierholtz as starters. If they both do well, Phils add Bourne Identity biggrin.gif and a 3rd bagger ... Optimystic 2013
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (Zero @ Aug 2 2012, 05:54 AM) *
Yup. This is a trial period for him and Shierholtz as starters. If they both do well, Phils add Bourne Identity biggrin.gif and a 3rd bagger ... Optimystic 2013



We'll go hard for Bourn, and we'll keep the 2 best ones out of Schierholtz, Mayberry, and Brown - the odd man out will make decent trade bait. Honestly I'd be in favor of signing Pierre for a couple years and letting him start, he's got a lot of gas left in the tank, but that won't happen.
mcnabbulous
QUOTE (HOUSEoPAIN @ Aug 2 2012, 07:59 AM) *
We'll go hard for Bourn, and we'll keep the 2 best ones out of Schierholtz, Mayberry, and Brown - the odd man out will make decent trade bait. Honestly I'd be in favor of signing Pierre for a couple years and letting him start, he's got a lot of gas left in the tank, but that won't happen.


I'd much rather keep Pierre than spend the ungodly amount of money that Bourn is going to want.
HOUSEoPAIN
QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Aug 2 2012, 10:04 AM) *
I'd much rather keep Pierre than spend the ungodly amount of money that Bourn is going to want.


Bourne will get 5 or 6 years for about $60 million. Personally, I think he's worth it, and we can keep Pierre as well if we wanted to. Of Amaro's many screw-ups, a big one was overpaying for Papelbon when we could've gotten another solid closer for less. That ties our hands a bit.
Reality Fan
QUOTE (nephillymike @ Aug 1 2012, 08:50 PM) *
Here are Brown's numbers in three partial years of AAA ball:

Games = 129
AB = 465
Hits = 136
2B = 25
3B = 3
HR = 13
BB = 53
Avg = .292
OBP = .364
Slug% = .443
OBPS = .807

600 PA season = 29 2B's, 3 3B's, 15 HR's 61BB's

The OBPS% puts him 28th among OF's in MLB this year, which is pretty solid.

The numbers were better than I thought. The 15 projected HR's was lighter though. And he has serious fielding issues, worse than Pence's mishaps this year.

We'll see. The games mean nothing this year, let's see what the kid has.


I am not a Brown fan but you have to remember he broke his hamate bone in early 2011 and although it can heal quickly power does not return for 12-18 months.......


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