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J_Cuz
Let the Ramblers Ramble (and let the Gamblers Gamble!)!

There are a few total beasts who will be running in the Kentucky Derby this coming weekend.

Bellamy Road is the outright favorite thus far after dessimating his competition a few weeks back in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Trained by Zito, owner by the Boss, this monster is a legit fave. Look for him to go off at 2-1 or less. Pretty tight odds for a tewnty-horse field. Smarty Jones, last year's favorite, went off at 4-1.

So a bettor could take one approach, believing in Beyers, prognosticators, and what they saw with their own eyes and just keep it simple with a Bellamy to win wager. That is a sound investmnt. After all, this IS THE YEAR OF THE FAVORITE to this point (Patriots, Baby Blue, Tiger).

Or a bettor could stalk this impressive colt with an oppositional approach. Afleet Alex and Bandini are the next two horses of note. Both are coming off wins, with Alex impressing enough down at the Arkansas Derby and Bandini dropping a full field in the Lexington Stakes. Add in High Fly, Noble Causeway, Sun King and High Limit and there are seven pretty impressive horses who will be running in this race.

Pair up a few of those if you don't believe in Bellamy Road and you're position will be strong.

as far as longshots go, I'm not too sure any of them have a legitimate shot of actually overtaking this dominant bunch. But there is always the fairly strong chance that a lesser colt could capitalize when these other beasts are wearing each other out and place in the money. Going Wild, Flower Alley, Wilko and Greeley's Galaxy all come to mind.

Obviously there is no way to capitalize if you're wagering on over half the field and here you have eleven out of twenty. The best way to approach it is to first determine if you're a believer in Bellamy Road. If that is the case you want him on at least eighty percent of your win tix and on top in the majority of your exactas and trifectas. In fact, take out your balls and throw him in some pick threes, a little homework on a few of the preliminary cards could pay off fairly nice dividends for the true believers.

If you don't believe in the fave, you can split your winners between a few of the six or seven second tier horses (and maybe even a long shot or two if your'e so inclined) and then mix and match some more exotic exactas trying to nail the solid money. Players who do not believe in Bellamy Road and are taking this approach should play less Pick Threes and maybe even less trifectas. Exactas and win tickets will put these folks in the best position to prosper.

There will be more to come but Derby Day is one week away.

btw DID YOU KNOW that this is the only calendar circumstance that would EVER prompt the Kentucky Derby to occur on the day before Mother's Day? The Kentucy Derby is ALWAYS on the First Saturday in May and Mother's Day is ALWAYS on the second Sunday in May.


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md717
Hmmmm . . . what say you? Bellamy Road was 4th? (I think?)
J_Cuz
It was a shocker. Didn't go in the hole too bad, I made sure I took some cover... we'll leave it at that.

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md717
Yeah, that has to hurt. Guess that's what makes horse racing, eh?
Wingspan
as someone whole will always look at the underdogs...i must say, i made a nice mini-killing on saturday, as i bet both the Giacomo and Closing argument to place!

i bet a totall of $40 on the race

$10 on afleet alex to win = $0 = -$10
$10 on an exacta (7-12) = $0 = -$20
$10 on Giacomo to place = $229 = $209
$10 on Closing Argument to place = $350 = $559 total winnings

cha-fr*ggin-ching!
md717
Wow man, congrats . . . did you place that online, or at an OTB, or . . . ?
Wingspan
placed them at the turf club in south philly.

i bet the derby every year, pretty much the same way. i almost always play longshots. never thinking they's win. but hoping a few others fall down and place or show ;-)

funny thing is, i was paying attention to the other longshot (who's name i forget) and i didnt even realize i had won for almost 20 minutes.

then again, hitting both of these longshots pays back for the 5 years straight of losing all that money wink.gif
md717
It was interesting . . . I saw an interview with Richard Branson after the race. Apparently he either owns or has $$ invested in Giacomo? Or maybe it's owned by a friend of his? In any case, he has some connection to that horse.

He said the most he ever bets on horse racing is $20. Man, think of the payday HE coulda had if he had bet the equivalent of what $20 means to me in HIS world!

Let's see . . . I'm worth about $100 and that depends on whether or not I'm wearing my Sunday shoes . . . hehe. He's worth over a billion . . . so, you do the math!

Anyway, he said something like, "Hopefully that's how billionaires stay billionaires -- by not betting on horse racing."

I thought that was pretty funny.
Wingspan
i go to philly park 3 or 4 times a season. i may be one of the only ones that go for the sheer fun of the race. i bet very very small. i don't bet more than $5 or $10 in each race. sometimes i win enough to buy a round a beers. and thats good enough for me most of the time

J_Cuz
Me and hoodwink were at the Turf Club in S. Philly Saturday too.

Wingspan
i was in the main area for most of the afternoon with the red high bar chairs. i shoulda posted i was going. i had on a dawkins jersey.
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