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nephillymike
Using the projections that some of the experts have for this draft, here is what they expect based on these definitions from SI.com:

Franchise Prospect - Multiple Pro Bowl possibilities.

Quality Prospect - Occasional Pro Bowl appearances

First Year Contributor - Has the ability to make plays from the get-go and start early in his first season.

Future Starter - Quality prospect with long-term potential

Per SI.com's ratings, this draft consists of:

1 Franchise Prospect
20 Quality Prospects
49 First Year Contributors
77 Future Starters
147 Total Future Starters or Better

Note in comparison to last year's projections, the talent this year for star players is not as deep:

2006 Projections:
0 Franchise Players
35 Quality Prospects
43 First Year Contributors
55 Future Starters
143 Total Future Starters or Better

So based on this, we have three picks in the top 147, so if we draft accordingly, we should get three starters right?

Well, there's Hertz and there's not exactly. We're in the not exactly category. Ratings like SI.com talk about potential. We can use AF's analysis from a few years ago to see based on history of NFL picks, what can we expect to get with our picks. AF's has four outcomes; Top Starter(TS), Starter(S), Significant Backup(SB) and Non Factor(NF). He broke the picks into seven levels based on where they were picked. The table below shows the % chance of getting each of the four outcomes with the ranges of where picked:

Sel.#, TS,S,SB,NF
1-20, 46%,28%,18%,8%
21-50, 27%,23%,24%,26%
51-75, 11%,28%,34%,27%
76-100,6%,18%,23%,53%
101-150,5%,9%,24%,62%
151-200,5%,8%,17%,70%
201-end,5%,9%,15%,71%

Our selections in this year's draft are #'s 26,57,90,162,201,236

When you do the math, our draft this year should yield 3 non factors and 1 significant backup. Of the other two picks, we have roughly a 50% of them consisting of one top starter and one starter, and a 50% chance of the last two picks being a starter and significant backup. So we do just above expectations and we get one top starter, one starter, one significant backup and three non factors. If we do just below expectations, we get one starter, two significant backups and three non factors.

Getting excited?

Three tips for success in watching the draft:
1. Drink heavily
2. Wager on some picks with a few draft pick pools to make it interesting.
3. Drink some more!!



nephillymike
According to SI.com, what positions do those prospects play?

Here are the ratings abbreviations:

MPB = Multiple Pro Bowls
OPB = Occasional Pro Bowls
FYC = First Year Contributor
FS = Future Starter


Pos...MPB...OPB...FYC...FS...Tot
QB.....0.......2........0......5....7
RB.....0.......2........4......7....13
FB.....0.......0........0......0.....0
WR....1.......3........8......13...25
TE.....0.......1........0........4....5
OT....0........2........4.......5....11
OG....0........0.......3........6.....9
C......0........0........2.......3.....5
DE....0.........4.......9........4....17
DT....0........2........3........5....10
ILB....0.......1........2........0.....3
OLB...0.......0........5........9.....14
S.......0.......2........2........6.....10
CB.....0.......1........7........8.....16
P........0.......0........0........1......1
K........0.......0........0........1......1

So it looks like TE would be difficult, but other percieved needs of S, CB, OLB, DE and RB are definitely doable.
AustinFan
If we landed some solid backups and one solid starter, that would be a good draft and all we need. Give me more depth at LB and DE, a future starter at S and a nickel CB and I'm happy. Through in a more physical back (Davis or a draft pick) and I'm all the way home.

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