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Analyzing our run defense based on information from Football Outsiders

Number of runs against us (except QBs)
430 - 7th most in NFL

Adjusted Line Yards - Yards per carry attributable to our D-Line and LB's based on this formula
Losses: 120% value
0-4 Yards: 100% value
5-10 Yards: 50% value
11+ Yards: 0% value

4.41 - 12th most in NFL

RB Yards per carry - Yards by RB/# running plays by RB
4.28 - 11th most in NFL (average is 4.19)

Adjusted Line Yards and frequency by Direction (from the offense's perspective, so a run outside the left tackle is actually to the defense's right side)
Middle/Guards "A & B" gaps
4.60 - 4th most in the NFL (average 4.34)
44% - 23rd most in the NFL (average 49%)

Left Tackle - Right "C" gap
5.28 - 5th most in the NFL (average 4.40)
12% - 26th most in the NFL (average 15%)

Left End- Right "D" gap
4.18 - 15th most in the NFL (averge 4.16)
17% - 2nd most in the NFL (average 12%)

Right Tackle - Left "C" gap
4.75 - 7th most in the NFL (average 4.21)
12% - Tied for 7th most in the NFL (average 14%)

Right End - Left "D" gap
3.02 - 30th most in the NFL (average 4.04)
13% - 4th most in the NFL

Power Success - Percentage of runs on 3rd and 4th downs with 2 yards or less to go that result in a 1st down or TD
53% - 4th lowest (29th most) in the NFL

10+ Yards - Percentage of rushing yards against that are more than 10 yards. This is yardage not reflected in the adjusted line yards stat, so you could say that it's yardage attributable to DBs
13% - 6th lowest (27th most) in the NFL (average 17%)

Stuffed - Percentage of runs that result in zero or negative yards (on 1st down) or less than one-fourth the yards needed for a 1st down (on 2nd-4th down)
23% - 17th most (15th lowest) in the NFL (average 24%)

Gap analysis:
According to my book on the 4-3 defense here are the gap responsibilities
A Gap - DT playside, OLB backside
B Gap - MLB playside, DT backside
C Gap - OLB playside, DE backside
D Gap - DE

Since Football Outsiders doesn't break down the A and B gap and since there's so much shared responsiblity for covering them, it's hard to draw conclusions. But since all of the A & B gap stats are horrible, it's safe to say that our DTs and all LBs are a big problem. The C gap is shared between the OLB to the run side and DE from the back side. Probably the OLB is more responsible since the DE would have to take down the RB in pursuit from behind. With runs to our right side C gap being 5th worst, the big problem is the ROLB. We're 7th worst on the other side (LOLB). With the DE completely responsible for the D gap it's easy to see how effective the player is. So our RDE is average against the run (15th) and our LDE is awesome (3rd).

I interpret the power success number to mean that we're excellent in short yardage situations when the opponents run the ball.

On the stuffed stat, we're average, but I would expect that with our "penetrating DT", approach that we should expect better.

The 10+ implies that once the RB gets past the front seven, we're well above average at stopping them (6th) before they rip off the huge gains.

What's most surprising thing to me are the discrepencies between opponent's success against a particular gap and how frequently they attack it. For example, we're pretty poor (4th worst) at stopping runs up the middle but they don't run there much (ranked 23rd in frequency).

Can somebody help me figure out what specific players you would praise/blame for these stats. The FO stats break down by left side and right side, while defense strategy is based on strong-side/weak-side. Do the Eagles mostly have the OLB and DE stay on the same side (left or right)? My guess would be that the DE's don't shift, but the OLB's do.

So, does anyone have a different interpretation? Thoughts?
Too... much... stats... brain... hurts....
The used Bunkley a lot at short yardage, especially near the goal line. And we're damn good when he is in there. Maybe I'll email these stats to JJ and hope he gets a clue.
QUOTE(bullwinkle @ Apr 13 2007, 05:03 PM) [snapback]110884[/snapback]

Maybe I'll email these stats to JJ and hope he gets a clue.

I'd be honored, sir.
QUOTE(Commish @ Apr 13 2007, 02:31 PM) [snapback]110879[/snapback]

brain... hurts....

Sorry Commish. Here ya go.


Virtual Excedrin.
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