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I found an interesting breakdown of the biggest swings in win probability from this weekend. Here is an excerpt:

4th quarter, 1:56, Andy Reid elects to punt on 4th-and-15 from the Philadelphia 39 yard line
Philadelphia's Win Probability if go for it: 17.6%
Philadelphia's Win Probability if punt: 17.1%
Impact (of decision) -0.5%
Andy Reid's decision to punt late in the game has tongues wagging. Our belief, based on the statistical analysis of the Win Probability model, is he should have gone for it. Philadelphia only had 2 time outs left. If they punted, they would only have 45 seconds or so left if they stopped the Saints and got the ball back. Punting is a field position play - you only choose to do because of the value you get in moving the ball down the field. Late in the game like this one, possession is more valuable than field position - especially when you consider the punt would have likely netted the Eagles 20 yards on their next drive. We expected Reid to go for it, considering his history of 4th-and-longs in the playoffs (for more, see their unlikely pass to Freddie Mitchell against the Packers in Janaury 2004 ).

If you would like to read the whole article here is the link:
Hoffman pointed out that's a bit misleading, since Garcia never succeeded longer than 3rd and 11 all season, going 0-8 over longer distances. If McNabb is the QB, Reid goes for it, because McNabb can make those plays, Garcia doesn't have the arm strength to make the off balance throws or bullets you have to throw through 3 defenders.

It comes down to similar odds for either decision, and a lot slimmer than 17%.
Consider this also, in the second half Westy took one punt return. If not for a shoestring tackle, he was heading into a gaping hole. I think that play had an impact on Andy, his O had stalled, giving Westy a shot at a punt return could have been the catalyst he was looking for. I couldn't really tell from TV, but I talked to someone who was at the dome. He told me if Westy had not been tripped up on that play he would have gone all the way.

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