JETS (+9) over Colts...Too many points....even if it is the COLTS. Jets are not great and don't have much of a running game, but they could very well be 3-0 this season despite being down 24-0 to the Pats a couple of weeks ago. I expect that this score will get run up and the COLTS will try to coast in the 4th...allowing the Jets to cover the spread

BILLS (-1) over Vikings...Too much McGahee. Vikings offense has not scored a TD in 2 weeks

Chargers (-2.5) over RAVENS...Too much McNair. Ravens 3-0 start is misleading considering that their "D" is playing out of this world and the offense has not been able to match the intensity

TITANS (+9.5) over Cowboys...Either this will be a complete blowout or DallASS will be sunk for the season. Titans are not a good team, by any stretch of the imagination...but 10 points is too much...even over a team like Tennessee, particularily for a stuttering offense like the "gurlz"

CHIEFS (-7) over Niners...Too much Arrowhead.

PANTHERS (-7) over Saints...Too much of a letdown for the Big Easy. CAR. was supposed to be the class of the NFC alongside SEATTLE, week 3 was a good litmus test for the PANTHERS....Smith & MeShaun are a nice 1-2 punch

Cardinals(+7) over FALCONS ....Too much Warner. Vick looks to rebound from a horrific Monday night showing...but 7 points is just too much, the Falcons are not that good.

TEXANS (+3.5) over Dolphins ...Too many boos. Dolphins look horrible, on both sides of the ball

Lions (+5.5) over RAMS Too many points....Close your eyes and imagine a St Louis Team that is defensive minded....now open your eyes....welcome to the '06 season

Patriots (+6) over BENGALS...Too much pride. If Cincy had trouble with Ben Rottenburger last week...wait until they get a load of a fired up Brady, coming off a week where he looked less than stellar

Jaguars (-3) over REDSKINS...Too much talent. , last week was an anomallly for both teams

Browns (-2.5) over RAIDERS...Too much incompetence. The RAIDERS are the worst team in the league. Last week's let down against Baltimore showed that the Browns can play some sound D

BEARS(+3.5) Seahawks over...No Shaun means no luck

Packers (+10.5) over EAGLES...Too many injuries. Pass happy Packers wil put up points especially in garbage time. Philly has shown an inability to hold a large lead [this season]...particularily against teams that are not in their class. Expect to see more of a ground game from Philly as this game gets going. this new school Favre makes many...many...many mistakes when he gets behind on the scoreboard, but 10.5 is just too much...despite the Green in my veins telling me that 3 TD's will be the difference in the score

Thoughts??

I like NE [+6] with the points as well as the BROWNS [-2.5], Chargers [-2.5] and the Jags [-3]....4 team parlay is 12-1 odds, but a 5 team is 25-1....anybody have another game for me?

I'm going with a 3 game parlay.

Niners +7. Arrowhead or not, the Chiefs suck outloud, and I'm starting to like Alex Smith and that running back they have.

Jags -3. A legitimate top 10 team versus a legitimate bottom 10 team. Last week was a mirage, Brunell still sucks.

The 3rd team will be between the Vikings or the Falcons, I haven't decided which yet, but I like the both.

The Vikings are the better pick IMO....I don't trust VICK or the Falcons...Abraham is still out and even though Warner is ooooooover the hill...this should be a big week for them. They left 2 scores on the board last week-end b'cuz of brain farts

Yo Phits -- you oughta give the Sportsguy a little credit for your post . . .

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...adelphia+eagles

If I had to pick 5 games, they would be:

JAX -3 at WAS
PHI -11 vs. GB
CIN -6 v. NE
SD-2.5 at BAL
SF +7 @ KC

I also like SEA+3 @ CHI, and the "over" on the PHI/GB game

There's a reason the odds on a 5-game parlay are 25-1 . . . it's damn tough to accurately pick 5 games.

my apologies mon ami if i gave the false impression that the full details of the post were of an original nature. I modified some of the picks and comments but the basis of the picks originated from the the sports guy. His insiders report comes out on Wednesday from the ESPN site [as I am sure most people already know].

I went with a 4 pick parlay:
JAX -3
SD -2.5
CLE -2.5
NE +6

I originally had 50 on a 3 pick...but I got greedy and took the points with NE and dropped my wager down to 25. I don't think that NE is good enough to beat Cincy, but I do think that they are good enough to cover. I am looking for BRADY to have a big game. He is still the premier QB in the league, and I believe that both he and Coach B want the league to remember that fact.

My "numbers" analysis has yielded these picks as being good value picks. I'll prolly only pick two or three from these:

NYJ +9 vs. Ind
Mia -3.5@ Hou
Buf +1 vs. Min
NO +7 @ Car
SD -2.5 @ Bal
SF +7 @KC
Was +3 vs. Jax
Chi -3 vs. Sea

It looks like I'll either be picking bad teams or with some teams I'm not crazy about. The Iggs 11 is too much given their sloppy 2nd half nature. I can just see another 21 point lead melting away into a back door cover by GB.

NYJ - bad team
Mia - playing really bad
Buf - possible, always have a special place for home dogs
NO - possbile emotional let down, if Car loses, they may be done. NO is a dnagerus pick
SD - is Rivers good enough to be a road fav in Baltimore against that D? However, SD had the bye last week
SF - I like this play but KC had the bye so I'm skeptical. Also Arowhead is tough.
Was - uggh. They ain't playing as well as the numbers say b/c of weaker competition vs. Jax'x comp.
Chi - I like this pick, but you just know this line will go up making it less attractive.

As predicted, the Chi line went up to -3.5, so I backed away.

I took:

Buf -2 vs. Min (was buf +1, three point swing but I took it anyway)
Mia -3.5 @ Hou
SF +7 @ KC

The Jets line moved down to 7.5 so I stayed away from that one also.

Good luck w/ your 4-team Parlay, Phits. They're fun when they hit. I hit one the first week of the season when I bet for the Eagles and against the other 3 NFCE teams.

My lock of the day is JAX-3 over WAS. The only other game I feel comfortable with is SD+2 over BAL. That line changed a great deal. Is somebody injured for the Chargers that I don't know about? I mean, the line WAS SD-2.5 early in the week, that's a 4.5 point swing . . . I still think the Chargers win this one outright. They Chargers scored a TD on their first drive, so now I feel even better about this game.

Good luck on your 3, Mikey. I think HOU could shock MIA, MIN is a big question mark for me, they've looked pretty good in the two games I saw. BUF is another question mark, so I have no clue how that game will come out. Scouts Inc. is predicting 21-20 MIN. You'll probably be OK with SF+7, but I took KC-7 in one of my pools, so . . . don't know what I was thinking there.

We're not doin' so hot. I shouldn't have felt comfortable with SD+2. Phits lost his 4-way, and Mikey is 1-2.

Here's hoping my "lock of the day" comes through, both b/c I have it picked in a pool and b/c we need to eliminate a contender from the NFCE -- get them so far buried that their games against us don't matter to them.

overtime 30-30 JAX & WAS....JAX run defense was pretty bad today...WAS defense looke like a sieve

I can't believe that SD lost that game. They had that locked up after McNair's INT in the 4th. Schottenheimer must have had a brain cramp on that botched FG. He had Rivers passing on 2nd and 3rd when he should have run on both plays to keep the clocking going and to get his kicker closer for the FG. Instead they botched the FG and gave BAL a chance to win....we all know how thiat turned out

NE showed CINCY that they are still one of the elite teams in the league...nice win for the PATS

It was a good football day...just not for me

In a last minute substitution, I took the Bears, Falcons and Jax.

2/3. :-(