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> Celek not retiring per PFT, And some Foles points
nephillymike
post Mar 6 2018, 09:11 PM
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Celek not retiring is a cap problem. It was 4M we needed. Ouch.

This could be a problem. We need to go further in our restructures or in letting FA leave.

On the Foles issue, let's look at it from his point of view.

If he wants to be a FREE agent, he is better off waiting until after this year when he can pick among any teams that need a QB, not only those that can meet the Eagles price. Also, he is more valuable at can get paid more money when a team doesn't have to give up draft picks. So, you can make the argument that he will get more money in 2019 than he would in 2018 if traded, and it will have a greater chance of being with a team he wants to play for. The cost is one year at a high backup salary versus the first year of a new deal, even if that new deal is less than his new deal would be next year. He loses a year of starting, but may end up playing a few games here. As long as he doesn't play poorly, he should retain his earning potential.

Now if the Eagles don't trade Foles, they are likely to get a third round compensatory pick next year (assumes we lose more FA then we sign in 2019.)

https://overthecap.com/draft/

If Foles makes Glennon Or Taylor money, he's getting us a 3rd. That is a lock.

Just a few thoughts.
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Birdwatcher
post Mar 6 2018, 09:25 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 6 2018, 09:11 PM) *
Celek not retiring is a cap problem. It was 4M we needed. Ouch.

This could be a problem. We need to go further in our restructures or in letting FA leave.

On the Foles issue, let's look at it from his point of view.

If he wants to be a FREE agent, he is better off waiting until after this year when he can pick among any teams that need a QB, not only those that can meet the Eagles price. Also, he is more valuable at can get paid more money when a team doesn't have to give up draft picks. So, you can make the argument that he will get more money in 2019 than he would in 2018 if traded, and it will have a greater chance of being with a team he wants to play for. The cost is one year at a high backup salary versus the first year of a new deal, even if that new deal is less than his new deal would be next year. He loses a year of starting, but may end up playing a few games here. As long as he doesn't play poorly, he should retain his earning potential.

Now if the Eagles don't trade Foles, they are likely to get a third round compensatory pick next year (assumes we lose more FA then we sign in 2019.)

https://overthecap.com/draft/

If Foles makes Glennon Or Taylor money, he's getting us a 3rd. That is a lock.

Just a few thoughts.


Were you listening to Eskin on WIP around 6 tonight? Sounds like what he was saying, but he added in the success factor, pointing out that most teams looking for a QB with the exception of maybe the Vikes (but it sounds like they are going for Cousins), are not ready to contend. Staying here gives him a chance to be part of contender again, earn a good salary, and still be worth a lot next year. There is always a demand for QBs, and at 30 he could easily get a 3 year 50-60 mil deal as an UFA based on the kind of coin tossed around lately.
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eagle60
post Mar 6 2018, 09:56 PM
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I don't know what they can do with him but he's an NFL minimum salary guy now.
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nephillymike
post Mar 6 2018, 10:51 PM
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QUOTE (Birdwatcher @ Mar 6 2018, 09:25 PM) *
Were you listening to Eskin on WIP around 6 tonight? Sounds like what he was saying, but he added in the success factor, pointing out that most teams looking for a QB with the exception of maybe the Vikes (but it sounds like they are going for Cousins), are not ready to contend. Staying here gives him a chance to be part of contender again, earn a good salary, and still be worth a lot next year. There is always a demand for QBs, and at 30 he could easily get a 3 year 50-60 mil deal as an UFA based on the kind of coin tossed around lately.

No, I didn't hear Eskin.
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Reality Fan
post Mar 7 2018, 04:15 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 6 2018, 09:11 PM) *
On the Foles issue, let's look at it from his point of view.

If he wants to be a FREE agent, he is better off waiting until after this year when he can pick among any teams that need a QB, not only those that can meet the Eagles price. Also, he is more valuable at can get paid more money when a team doesn't have to give up draft picks. So, you can make the argument that he will get more money in 2019 than he would in 2018 if traded, and it will have a greater chance of being with a team he wants to play for. The cost is one year at a high backup salary versus the first year of a new deal, even if that new deal is less than his new deal would be next year. He loses a year of starting, but may end up playing a few games here. As long as he doesn't play poorly, he should retain his earning potential.


I have been listening to Talk radio and now I hear this here and I have to laugh. Sorry Mikey but you sound like many of the delusional fans that call in. Foles value for camp Foles is highest right now. If he is traded it would likely be with the proviso that he gets an extension. That is the lock. That limits the Eagles return haul a bit but make no mistake, this is about Foles, not the Eagles. They can hold on to him and move on from other important players. That is an option but holding him will cost them players. There is no magical cap salvation. People need to go. Foles can make less now by staying but his value all but disappears next year. Why trade for a guy who will be a free agent? Beyond that, if Carson returns and stay healthy Foles' value plummets because he is a guy who sat for a year as a backup.

Folks need to get a grip on reality. He has serious value now and his stock will not be higher next year no matter how much people want to delude themselves. The Eagles need draft picks and cap relief and Foels is a big part of that. They may keep him but that will have repercussions.


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nephillymike
post Mar 7 2018, 06:37 AM
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QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2018, 04:15 AM) *
I have been listening to Talk radio and now I hear this here and I have to laugh. Sorry Mikey but you sound like many of the delusional fans that call in. Foles value for camp Foles is highest right now. If he is traded it would likely be with the proviso that he gets an extension. That is the lock. That limits the Eagles return haul a bit but make no mistake, this is about Foles, not the Eagles. They can hold on to him and move on from other important players. That is an option but holding him will cost them players. There is no magical cap salvation. People need to go. Foles can make less now by staying but his value all but disappears next year. Why trade for a guy who will be a free agent? Beyond that, if Carson returns and stay healthy Foles' value plummets because he is a guy who sat for a year as a backup.

Folks need to get a grip on reality. He has serious value now and his stock will not be higher next year no matter how much people want to delude themselves. The Eagles need draft picks and cap relief and Foels is a big part of that. They may keep him but that will have repercussions.

As usual, we disagree on a few points.

I don't think his value plummets. It may decrease a little, but it seems to me that McCarron and Garapolos value held up fine. Granted, if he plays a decent amount and shits the bed, then it will.

I think you will agree that a completely free agent Foles will have more bidders than those who have to meet the Eagles trade demands this year. More bidders will make for a more lucrative contract and increase the likelihood of him going a place he wants to go. I think that is reasonable. However, he will need to play this year at high backup rate salary vs, good starter rate. That's a cost no doubt, and even if his contract as a FA is more lucrative than the one he gets in a trade, he will be behind where he could be but may make it up at the end of the deal. Maybe. Probably not. But he'd have the benefit of being more selective.

For the Eagles, sure if you measure his value in terms of picks, then no doubt he is more valuable now. No doubt. But you need to factor in the 3rd round comp pick in determining that net value. However, depending on how much they value his insurance policy, that may exceed his value in picks. For me, I tend to think Carson bring ready at the midpoint of recovery, AFTER WEEK SIX, is reasonable, and I think the value of Foles starting six games this year over his replacement has a big impact on us making the playoffs and/or qualifying for home field advantage. I put his expected value at 1-2 wins with Carson expected absence of six games. If your tea leaves say Carson will be ready game one, then a trade now may be the best return. I go midpoint. To me a 1st and 2nd less a lost 3rd round comp pick compensates me adequately for my perceived risk. I know others have different risk premium calculations than I.
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post Mar 7 2018, 08:40 AM
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If Foles is traded after camp his value is much less to the new team unless they're in a dramatic need position and overpay as a result ... like the Bradford trade. Garoppolo only brought NE a #2 mid season, but they paid a 1 and a 3 for a WR before the season. A WR can't provide nearly a much impact on the field or in the locker room as a QB. If he's traded before camp he's worth much more as a potential franchise QB with NFL starting film. The Pats were in a bind, trade him or lose him for nothing in FA and the market knew it.

The comp pick cuts both ways. Sure, if they don't trade him they have a reasonable expectation of a 3 in return, but other teams will know that too and it gives Howie a starting point ... "if we keep him, we have the SB MVP as insurance plus we get a 3 for him, so you need to do better." The team has been pushing that point in the media. That alone seems to elevate his price tag to no worse than a mid 2 and more likely at least a 1. If a team wants him, they want him to go through camp, that weakens the Eagles and elevates his price tag.

And although I'm sure the Eagles will try to do best for him, this is about the team and it's future, not the player. Foles won the SB, now he has a chance to help the team get to the next era. I don't think Roseman will make the same mistake the Pats made.


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Reality Fan
post Mar 7 2018, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Mar 7 2018, 06:37 AM) *
As usual, we disagree on a few points.

I don't think his value plummets. It may decrease a little, but it seems to me that McCarron and Garapolos value held up fine. Granted, if he plays a decent amount and shits the bed, then it will.

I think you will agree that a completely free agent Foles will have more bidders than those who have to meet the Eagles trade demands this year. More bidders will make for a more lucrative contract and increase the likelihood of him going a place he wants to go. I think that is reasonable. However, he will need to play this year at high backup rate salary vs, good starter rate. That's a cost no doubt, and even if his contract as a FA is more lucrative than the one he gets in a trade, he will be behind where he could be but may make it up at the end of the deal. Maybe. Probably not. But he'd have the benefit of being more selective.

For the Eagles, sure if you measure his value in terms of picks, then no doubt he is more valuable now. No doubt. But you need to factor in the 3rd round comp pick in determining that net value. However, depending on how much they value his insurance policy, that may exceed his value in picks. For me, I tend to think Carson bring ready at the midpoint of recovery, AFTER WEEK SIX, is reasonable, and I think the value of Foles starting six games this year over his replacement has a big impact on us making the playoffs and/or qualifying for home field advantage. I put his expected value at 1-2 wins with Carson expected absence of six games. If your tea leaves say Carson will be ready game one, then a trade now may be the best return. I go midpoint. To me a 1st and 2nd less a lost 3rd round comp pick compensates me adequately for my perceived risk. I know others have different risk premium calculations than I.


First, you assume that Wentz won't be ready for the first 6 weeks. Second, once the season starts the Eagles have little leverage to trade him for a bag of donuts. Unless another Bridgewater episode happens no team is going to give you anything for a guy set to be a FA. What would be the point to do it then? The only thing that happens for Foles is that he loses out on the chance to get a lucrative extension this year. You mention McCarron and Garrafalo but you leave out a big part with both of them, potential. For Foles the time is now while his performance dulls the failures he has had in the past. The other 2 guys have yet to show that failure. Even now the Eagles will not get a king's ransom...there are too many decent QBs on the market.


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nephillymike
post Mar 7 2018, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Mar 7 2018, 11:21 AM) *
First, you assume that Wentz won't be ready for the first 6 weeks. Second, once the season starts the Eagles have little leverage to trade him for a bag of donuts. Unless another Bridgewater episode happens no team is going to give you anything for a guy set to be a FA. What would be the point to do it then? The only thing that happens for Foles is that he loses out on the chance to get a lucrative extension this year. You mention McCarron and Garrafalo but you leave out a big part with both of them, potential. For Foles the time is now while his performance dulls the failures he has had in the past. The other 2 guys have yet to show that failure. Even now the Eagles will not get a king's ransom...there are too many decent QBs on the market.


I take it that you assume that Wentz will be ready week one.

Is that what you are basing your opinion on?

What if you knew it would be week six, does that change anything for you?
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JeeQ
post Mar 7 2018, 09:38 PM
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Random, but I bet we could land Michael's brother Martellus for a Veteran Minimum at this point
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nephillymike
post Mar 7 2018, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE (JeeQ @ Mar 7 2018, 09:38 PM) *
Random, but I bet we could land Michael's brother Martellus for a Veteran Minimum at this point

True.
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