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- nephillymike   Check out this analysis of Pedey's 4th down calls   Feb 21 2018, 09:03 PM
- - samaroo   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 11:03 ...   Feb 21 2018, 09:18 PM
|- - Joegrane   Easier to do when you have a very good O Line, pow...   Feb 21 2018, 09:37 PM
|- - samaroo   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 22 2018, 11:37 AM) ...   Feb 21 2018, 10:00 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 21 2018, 10:00 PM) F...   Feb 21 2018, 10:36 PM
|- - eagle60   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2018, 10:36 ...   Feb 21 2018, 11:45 PM
- - The Franchise   Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and...   Feb 22 2018, 12:59 AM
|- - samaroo   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:59...   Feb 22 2018, 01:46 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 22 2018, 02:46 AM) C...   Feb 22 2018, 03:31 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 12:59...   Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 ...   Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM) Exac...   Feb 22 2018, 06:02 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 06:02 ...   Feb 22 2018, 04:12 PM
||- - samaroo   QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 23 2018, 06:12 AM) I...   Feb 22 2018, 06:54 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 ...   Feb 22 2018, 02:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:11...   Feb 22 2018, 08:03 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 09:03 ...   Feb 22 2018, 09:38 PM
- - mcnabbulous   People need to be less focused on the specifics, o...   Feb 22 2018, 03:41 PM
- - samaroo   How about we all agree that Doug is really good at...   Feb 22 2018, 09:47 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 22 2018, 09:47 PM) H...   Feb 22 2018, 11:36 PM
- - samaroo   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 23 2018, 01:36...   Feb 23 2018, 12:30 AM
> Check out this analysis of Pedey's 4th down calls, Pretty Amazing
The Franchise
post Feb 22 2018, 12:59 AM
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Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.


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samaroo
post Feb 22 2018, 01:46 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:59 PM) *
Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.

C'mon man, find a different nit to pick. If he coached this way for the next 20 years every year, I'd give him 5 times the amount of screw-ups a season before it bothered me.


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The Franchise
post Feb 22 2018, 03:31 AM
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QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 22 2018, 02:46 AM) *
C'mon man, find a different nit to pick. If he coached this way for the next 20 years every year, I'd give him 5 times the amount of screw-ups a season before it bothered me.


Hey buddy, the post was meant to troll, and troll it did. I just stuck by my opinion.


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nephillymike
post Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 12:59 AM) *
Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.

That 4th and 8 was definitely a conversation starter!

I remember doing a bunch of research on it and being surprised just how often the odds say you should go for it on 4th down. There was a thing called expected points depending on drive starting point etc. There was a chart I remember that basically said it was technically wrong to go for it on that play, but if he was two yards closer, it would have been right to go for it. Trust in your defense is a big factor. Shit, you don't come out of the season with a 73-3 point difference as a result of 4th downs without both the O and D doing a great job.
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Rick
post Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM) *
I remember doing a bunch of research on it and being surprised just how often the odds say you should go for it on 4th down. There was a thing called expected points depending on drive starting point etc. There was a chart I remember that basically said it was technically wrong to go for it on that play, but if he was two yards closer, it would have been right to go for it. Trust in your defense is a big factor. Shit, you don't come out of the season with a 73-3 point difference as a result of 4th downs without both the O and D doing a great job.

Exactly. Finally, someone is looking at the NUMBERS and actually making decisions based on them, instead of doing what football people have done for years. Amazing how the numbers play out the way they're supposed to...

Breath of fresh air.
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nephillymike
post Feb 22 2018, 06:02 AM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM) *
Exactly. Finally, someone is looking at the NUMBERS and actually making decisions based on them, instead of doing what football people have done for years. Amazing how the numbers play out the way they're supposed to...

Breath of fresh air.

As a result of our success, this will be a trend starter and you will see significantly more fourth down attempts than previous practice in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I'm comfortable and expect us to go for it on so many fourth downs.
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The Franchise
post Feb 22 2018, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM) *
That 4th and 8 was definitely a conversation starter!


To say the least.

I know that statistically you should never punt on 4th and 1, but obviously you're going to have a tough time explaining that one to your fans if you fail on your own 20. Doug's calls have been outstanding.


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Rick
post Feb 22 2018, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 06:02 AM) *
As a result of our success, this will be a trend starter and you will see significantly more fourth down attempts than previous practice in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I'm comfortable and expect us to go for it on so many fourth downs.

I'm with you.

Although I'm not so sure more people will go for it--at least not a HUGE amount of people. The NFL is notorious for being conservative.

Better for us.
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samaroo
post Feb 22 2018, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 23 2018, 06:12 AM) *
I'm with you.

Although I'm not so sure more people will go for it--at least not a HUGE amount of people. The NFL is notorious for being conservative.

Better for us.

Good. Let them tell Doug how wrong he is all they want. I'll bet it was hard to hear them over the crowd noise at the parade. And maybe Jason can work it into his speech at the next one.


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nephillymike
post Feb 22 2018, 08:03 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:11 PM) *
To say the least.

I know that statistically you should never punt on 4th and 1, but obviously you're going to have a tough time explaining that one to your fans if you fail on your own 20. Doug's calls have been outstanding.

I know about that Fourth and 1. I remember thinking the guy who put that out was on drugs and then recalculating the expected points and was like, damn, I learned something today!

So, are we all on board when it's 4th and one from our 12 yard line and we go for it?

Now THAT would be ballsy. And, truth be told, we could end the argument with " we won the super bowl", drop the mic and be on our way, regardless of the outcome. It's a good fall back line.
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The Franchise
post Feb 22 2018, 09:38 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 09:03 PM) *
So, are we all on board when it's 4th and one from our 12 yard line and we go for it?


Umm, no.

I think using EP in the variable is horseshit, but if it's 4th and 1 at your own 12 I'm not sure how using EP helps that decision. It doesn't matter anyway - I don't want to relitigate the whole subject, but some basic accepted NFL norms have to factor into your coaching strategy.


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