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- nephillymike   The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Sep 30 2017, 09:07 PM
- - Zero   I didn't follow the links, I also didn't s...   Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM) I did...   Oct 1 2017, 06:34 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM) This ...   Oct 1 2017, 09:30 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 5 2017, 03:52 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 04:52 ...   Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM) Becau...   Oct 5 2017, 04:35 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 05:35 ...   Oct 6 2017, 05:16 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 6 2017, 06:16 AM) You k...   Oct 6 2017, 09:44 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 6 2017, 10:44 ...   Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM) I kno...   Oct 7 2017, 11:56 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 12:56 ...   Oct 7 2017, 03:46 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 04:46 PM) I hav...   Oct 7 2017, 04:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 P...   Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 P...   Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 ...   Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 ...   Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 05:00 PM
- - Rick   Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the ...   Oct 1 2017, 08:18 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 1 2017, 09:18 AM) Excel...   Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM) I...   Oct 1 2017, 09:52 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 10:52 A...   Oct 2 2017, 05:06 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 2 2017, 10:06 AM) Well-...   Oct 2 2017, 08:51 AM
- - Zero   RE: The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Oct 1 2017, 10:07 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Cool stuff, Mikey.   Oct 1 2017, 11:22 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Don’t be offended, Mike. He’s just an asshole.   Oct 7 2017, 09:43 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 7 2017, 10:43 PM...   Oct 7 2017, 10:44 PM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 8 2017, 03:43 AM...   Oct 8 2017, 07:04 AM
- - nephillymike   http://www.phillyvoice.com/dislodge-yourse...-8-ca...   Oct 8 2017, 07:16 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 8 2017, 07:16 A...   Oct 8 2017, 04:51 PM
|- - The Franchise   I didn't see that earlier. What can I say? I...   Oct 8 2017, 05:39 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 06:39 ...   Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 9 2017, 06:15 AM) OMG...   Oct 9 2017, 05:51 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 10:51 AM) I don...   Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM
||- - Zero   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 11:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 ...   Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher...   Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
|||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52...   Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 ...   Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 02:30 ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:22 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night....   Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59...   Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) Sorr...   Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45...   Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) We...   Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35...   Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) And ...   Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
- - Pila   That's right.   Oct 9 2017, 12:18 PM
- - The Franchise   While 4th and 8 attempts have been pleasantly remo...   Nov 5 2017, 04:32 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 10:32 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:10 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Nov 5 2017, 06:10 PM) Team ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:21 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 11:21 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:22 PM
> The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8
nephillymike
post Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
Post #1


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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM) *
Every individual coin flip is 50%. The more flips we have, the more towards 50% each it will go. I honestly have no idea why you would use coin flips as an example.


Because in statistics, there is a regression towards the mean. In your Darvish example, the real long term numbers are not likely to be those lopsided ones of their statistically insignificant 18 encounters, but more towards the righty vs lefty and vice verse historical statistically significant numbers.
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The Franchise
post Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM) *
Because in statistics, there is a regression towards the mean.


In terms of coin flips, yes. But it's ridiculous to think that 18 plate appearances is statistically insignificant, especially when coming up with 2-16. Don't take my word for it - the guy was benched yesterday. Results of individual matchups are no doubt affected by lefty-righty alignments, such as Michael Brantley's abysmal 1-13 against Sabathia, but nothing can compare to individual stats, provided there's a few games worth of at-bats to go off of. He'll probably be used to pinch hit tomorrow as well.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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