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- nephillymike   The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Sep 30 2017, 09:07 PM
- - Zero   I didn't follow the links, I also didn't s...   Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM) I did...   Oct 1 2017, 06:34 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM) This ...   Oct 1 2017, 09:30 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 5 2017, 03:52 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 04:52 ...   Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM) Becau...   Oct 5 2017, 04:35 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 05:35 ...   Oct 6 2017, 05:16 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 6 2017, 06:16 AM) You k...   Oct 6 2017, 09:44 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 6 2017, 10:44 ...   Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM) I kno...   Oct 7 2017, 11:56 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 12:56 ...   Oct 7 2017, 03:46 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 04:46 PM) I hav...   Oct 7 2017, 04:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 P...   Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 P...   Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 ...   Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 ...   Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 05:00 PM
- - Rick   Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the ...   Oct 1 2017, 08:18 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 1 2017, 09:18 AM) Excel...   Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM) I...   Oct 1 2017, 09:52 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 10:52 A...   Oct 2 2017, 05:06 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 2 2017, 10:06 AM) Well-...   Oct 2 2017, 08:51 AM
- - Zero   RE: The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Oct 1 2017, 10:07 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Cool stuff, Mikey.   Oct 1 2017, 11:22 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Don’t be offended, Mike. He’s just an asshole.   Oct 7 2017, 09:43 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 7 2017, 10:43 PM...   Oct 7 2017, 10:44 PM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 8 2017, 03:43 AM...   Oct 8 2017, 07:04 AM
- - nephillymike   http://www.phillyvoice.com/dislodge-yourse...-8-ca...   Oct 8 2017, 07:16 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 8 2017, 07:16 A...   Oct 8 2017, 04:51 PM
|- - The Franchise   I didn't see that earlier. What can I say? I...   Oct 8 2017, 05:39 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 06:39 ...   Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 9 2017, 06:15 AM) OMG...   Oct 9 2017, 05:51 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 10:51 AM) I don...   Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM
||- - Zero   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 11:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 ...   Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher...   Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
|||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52...   Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 ...   Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 02:30 ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:22 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night....   Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59...   Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) Sorr...   Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45...   Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) We...   Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35...   Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) And ...   Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
- - Pila   That's right.   Oct 9 2017, 12:18 PM
- - The Franchise   While 4th and 8 attempts have been pleasantly remo...   Nov 5 2017, 04:32 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 10:32 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:10 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Nov 5 2017, 06:10 PM) Team ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:21 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 11:21 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:22 PM
> The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8
The Franchise
post Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
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QUOTE
Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night. The Indians brought back Bauer on 3 days rest to face the Yankees. Bauers' numbers against the Yankees have been ridiculously-good (.9 ERA, etc...). However, his numbers on 3 days rest have also been suspect. The Yankees knock him out of the game early and go on to win. So, which numbers should they have gone with? Obviously, they went with the first set of numbers. They were wrong in this situation.


Bauer has had good numbers against the Yankees this year, but over his career against several of their players they are batting over.300 - and no pitcher will consistently do well on 3 days rest. It's worth pointing out he still didn't give up any earned runs last night. The Indians obviously wanted their ace, Kluber, to have the decisive game in Cleveland if Bauer couldn't get it done. He has rock solid numbers against almost all of their hitters, and will likely turn in a great start tomorrow.

The equivalent of what you two have been saying would be if we went back 15 years and looked at data that showed how Jose Mesa did against Derek Jeter, or how many times the '02 Indians won at home against the '02 Yankees. It would be irrelevant, and would contribute nothing to intellectually honest probability.



--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Rick
post Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59 PM) *
Bauer has had good numbers against the Yankees this year, but over his career against several of their players they are batting over.300 - and no pitcher will consistently do well on 3 days rest. It's worth pointing out he still didn't give up any earned runs last night. The Indians obviously wanted their ace, Kluber, to have the decisive game in Cleveland if Bauer couldn't get it done. He has rock solid numbers against almost all of their hitters, and will likely turn in a great start tomorrow.

The equivalent of what you two have been saying would be if we went back 15 years and looked at data that showed how Jose Mesa did against Derek Jeter, or how many times the '02 Indians won at home against the '02 Yankees. It would be irrelevant, and would contribute nothing to intellectually honest probability.

Sorry but, again, you are ridiculous. Again, you'll never admit you might be wrong even though the whole sports world agrees with what we're saying here.


Pointless trying to explain how things work to you.
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The Franchise
post Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) *
Sorry but, again, you are ridiculous. Again, you'll never admit you might be wrong even though the whole sports world agrees with what we're saying here.


Pointless trying to explain how things work to you.


You have offered literally nothing intellectual or useful in this entire thread. The 'entire sports world' agrees that going for it on 4th and 8 in that situation is blatantly stupid. It isn't my fault you don't understand basic sports strategy, or statistics, and their applications. Mikey at least comes across as knowing his stuff.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Rick
post Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45 PM) *
You have offered literally nothing intellectual or useful in this entire thread. The 'entire sports world' agrees that going for it on 4th and 8 in that situation is blatantly stupid. It isn't my fault you don't understand basic sports strategy, or statistics, and their applications. Mikey at least comes across as knowing his stuff.

No, you're back to the, "he shouldn't have gone for it," while we're explaining why he went for it. We've explained why--in sports--they actually look at the numbers and base decisions on them. But you, who is smarter than anyone, continues to claim how things are so different because it backs up what your ridiculous argument has been.

You're the one who doesn't seem to have a grasp of probabilities since you can't seem to get it through your head why they do it. They've been doing it for years in various sports and they're doing it even more in even more sports now. Why? Because it doesn't work?

Mikey knows far more about numbers than I do. I never claimed to be an expert. I just have a little knowledge about probabilities and why people use them to make decisions. You, on the other hand, keep spouting off about college numbers and other things. No matter how much info people provide you, you still keep insisting the numbers don't/can't work when, in fact, you are incorrect.

Then again, this is like EVERY time you've ever argued around here...
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The Franchise
post Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) *
We've explained why--in sports--they actually look at the numbers and base decisions on them. But you, who is smarter than anyone, continues to claim how things are so different because it backs up what your ridiculous argument has been.

You're the one who doesn't seem to have a grasp of probabilities since you can't seem to get it through your head why they do it. They've been doing it for years in various sports and they're doing it even more in even more sports now. Why? Because it doesn't work?


And I've explained, many times over, why certain numbers matter more in a sport like baseball as opposed to football. Using historical numbers that have nothing to do with the teams on the field is intellectually dishonest and ill advised - such as going for it on 4th and 8 because it's '33%.' I've also pointed out that the numbers you demand I genuflect to would indicate that Tom Brady has the same chance against the Saints defense, as Matt Cassel does against the Chiefs defense - this makes your justification of those studies laughable.

I've also shown simple examples of how individual matchups in baseball make for far more accurate predictions of success or failure - I used Chris Iannetta's history against Yu Darvish as my first example, predicting he wouldn't get the start - and lo and behold, Iannetta was benched! I then used Michael Brantley's history against CC Sabathia as another example, suggesting he shouldn't get the start - and lo and behold, he isn't in the starting lineup tonight!!!

It's almost as if I know what I'm talking about.....

*Bonus example: Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana both bat over .500 against Sabathia in their careers, though Lindor has a much smaller sample size. Let's see how they do!


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Rick
post Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35 PM) *
And I've explained, many times over, why certain numbers matter more in a sport like baseball as opposed to football. Using historical numbers that have nothing to do with the teams on the field is intellectually dishonest and ill advised - such as going for it on 4th and 8 because it's '33%.' I've also pointed out that the numbers you demand I genuflect to would indicate that Tom Brady has the same chance against the Saints defense, as Matt Cassel does against the Chiefs defense - this makes your justification of those studies laughable.

I've also shown simple examples of how individual matchups in baseball make for far more accurate predictions of success or failure - I used Chris Iannetta's history against Yu Darvish as my first example, predicting he wouldn't get the start - and lo and behold, Iannetta was benched! I then used Michael Brantley's history against CC Sabathia as another example, suggesting he shouldn't get the start - and lo and behold, he isn't in the starting lineup tonight!!!

It's almost as if I know what I'm talking about.....

*Bonus example: Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana both bat over .500 against Sabathia in their careers, though Lindor has a much smaller sample size. Let's see how they do!

And again, you've demonstrated you have very little understanding of probabilities.

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The Franchise
post Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) *
And again, you've demonstrated you have very little understanding of probabilities.


I accept your surrender.



--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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