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- nephillymike   The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Sep 30 2017, 09:07 PM
- - Zero   I didn't follow the links, I also didn't s...   Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM) I did...   Oct 1 2017, 06:34 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM) This ...   Oct 1 2017, 09:30 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 5 2017, 03:52 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 04:52 ...   Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM) Becau...   Oct 5 2017, 04:35 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 05:35 ...   Oct 6 2017, 05:16 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 6 2017, 06:16 AM) You k...   Oct 6 2017, 09:44 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 6 2017, 10:44 ...   Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM) I kno...   Oct 7 2017, 11:56 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 12:56 ...   Oct 7 2017, 03:46 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 04:46 PM) I hav...   Oct 7 2017, 04:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 P...   Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 P...   Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 ...   Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 ...   Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 05:00 PM
- - Rick   Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the ...   Oct 1 2017, 08:18 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 1 2017, 09:18 AM) Excel...   Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM) I...   Oct 1 2017, 09:52 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 10:52 A...   Oct 2 2017, 05:06 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 2 2017, 10:06 AM) Well-...   Oct 2 2017, 08:51 AM
- - Zero   RE: The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Oct 1 2017, 10:07 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Cool stuff, Mikey.   Oct 1 2017, 11:22 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Don’t be offended, Mike. He’s just an asshole.   Oct 7 2017, 09:43 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 7 2017, 10:43 PM...   Oct 7 2017, 10:44 PM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 8 2017, 03:43 AM...   Oct 8 2017, 07:04 AM
- - nephillymike   http://www.phillyvoice.com/dislodge-yourse...-8-ca...   Oct 8 2017, 07:16 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 8 2017, 07:16 A...   Oct 8 2017, 04:51 PM
|- - The Franchise   I didn't see that earlier. What can I say? I...   Oct 8 2017, 05:39 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 06:39 ...   Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 9 2017, 06:15 AM) OMG...   Oct 9 2017, 05:51 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 10:51 AM) I don...   Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM
||- - Zero   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 11:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 ...   Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher...   Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
|||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52...   Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 ...   Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 02:30 ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:22 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night....   Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59...   Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) Sorr...   Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45...   Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) We...   Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35...   Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) And ...   Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
- - Pila   That's right.   Oct 9 2017, 12:18 PM
- - The Franchise   While 4th and 8 attempts have been pleasantly remo...   Nov 5 2017, 04:32 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 10:32 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:10 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Nov 5 2017, 06:10 PM) Team ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:21 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 11:21 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:22 PM
> The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8
Rick
post Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
Post #1


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Joined: 15-September 10



QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) *
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Numbers can only tell us probability, not guarantee an outcome. If the likelihood of success is 50% then the likelihood of failure is also 50%. When your job is dependent on the outcome I'd think the tendency would lean more to a safer, conservative approach. That said, the benefit of statistics (analytics) may be to expand the definition of "safe" depending on circumstances. I don't think any of the numbers consider either the emotional or physical state of the teams on the field and how that may affect the potential for success or failure on a given play.

And this is exactly what I've been saying, the numbers don't lie but they are not perfect. However, they've been using numbers in baseball for DECADES with great success. Why the NFL has resisted looking at numbers for so long has always been a mystery to me.

They are not perfect, they don't accurately predict the outcome but, they can help provide more data to help make a more informed decision.
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