
The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8 
Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
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#1


Hall of Famer Group: Members Posts: 1532 Joined: 15September 10 
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Numbers can only tell us probability, not guarantee an outcome. If the likelihood of success is 50% then the likelihood of failure is also 50%. When your job is dependent on the outcome I'd think the tendency would lean more to a safer, conservative approach. That said, the benefit of statistics (analytics) may be to expand the definition of "safe" depending on circumstances. I don't think any of the numbers consider either the emotional or physical state of the teams on the field and how that may affect the potential for success or failure on a given play. And this is exactly what I've been saying, the numbers don't lie but they are not perfect. However, they've been using numbers in baseball for DECADES with great success. Why the NFL has resisted looking at numbers for so long has always been a mystery to me. They are not perfect, they don't accurately predict the outcome but, they can help provide more data to help make a more informed decision. 


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