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- nephillymike   The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Sep 30 2017, 09:07 PM
- - Zero   I didn't follow the links, I also didn't s...   Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM) I did...   Oct 1 2017, 06:34 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM) This ...   Oct 1 2017, 09:30 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 5 2017, 03:52 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 04:52 ...   Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM) Becau...   Oct 5 2017, 04:35 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 05:35 ...   Oct 6 2017, 05:16 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 6 2017, 06:16 AM) You k...   Oct 6 2017, 09:44 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 6 2017, 10:44 ...   Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM) I kno...   Oct 7 2017, 11:56 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 12:56 ...   Oct 7 2017, 03:46 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 04:46 PM) I hav...   Oct 7 2017, 04:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 P...   Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 P...   Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 ...   Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 ...   Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 05:00 PM
- - Rick   Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the ...   Oct 1 2017, 08:18 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 1 2017, 09:18 AM) Excel...   Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM) I...   Oct 1 2017, 09:52 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 10:52 A...   Oct 2 2017, 05:06 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 2 2017, 10:06 AM) Well-...   Oct 2 2017, 08:51 AM
- - Zero   RE: The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Oct 1 2017, 10:07 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Cool stuff, Mikey.   Oct 1 2017, 11:22 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Don’t be offended, Mike. He’s just an asshole.   Oct 7 2017, 09:43 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 7 2017, 10:43 PM...   Oct 7 2017, 10:44 PM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 8 2017, 03:43 AM...   Oct 8 2017, 07:04 AM
- - nephillymike   http://www.phillyvoice.com/dislodge-yourse...-8-ca...   Oct 8 2017, 07:16 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 8 2017, 07:16 A...   Oct 8 2017, 04:51 PM
|- - The Franchise   I didn't see that earlier. What can I say? I...   Oct 8 2017, 05:39 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 06:39 ...   Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 9 2017, 06:15 AM) OMG...   Oct 9 2017, 05:51 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 10:51 AM) I don...   Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM
||- - Zero   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 11:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 ...   Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher...   Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
|||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52...   Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 ...   Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 02:30 ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:22 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night....   Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59...   Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) Sorr...   Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45...   Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) We...   Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35...   Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) And ...   Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
- - Pila   That's right.   Oct 9 2017, 12:18 PM
- - The Franchise   While 4th and 8 attempts have been pleasantly remo...   Nov 5 2017, 04:32 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 10:32 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:10 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Nov 5 2017, 06:10 PM) Team ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:21 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 11:21 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:22 PM
> The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8
nephillymike
post Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM) *
I feel I've been completely consistent in my opinion, and I don't think we really disagree on much here. It's more a couple other people demanding I genuflect before a study I've determined isn't gospel.

To your point here, you are correct. Going back to baseball for a second; today, Yu Darvish is pitching against the D-Backs. Chris Iannetta has faced him 18 times. He is 2-16, with 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts. He has no extra base hits, and an OPS of .347. One can easily assume that Iannetta will have a bad day at the plate, and probably shouldn't even get the start.

On the other hand, when looking at the 4th and 8 data used, we're throwing in scores of scenarios where teams are down by a lot late in the 4th, and are successfully converting because defenses are playing soft. We have no examples of this Eagles team taking on that Giants team in a hard fought down. There are ways of getting and applying more relevant data, but that isn't what happened. The problem is exacerbated when throwing in equally flawed data from numbers geeks, such as passing and running efficiency, expected points, etc.


In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher, I would suggest there is valuable information to be had by using leaguewide data of RHP vs LH batter and vice verse that gives context to the likelihood of success in the matchup you are trying to predict.

The same is true in football.

For example, if I have a data sample of 315 flips of a coin, and I do five other 315 coin flip samples, I may get a range of heads % from 45-55%. Now if you and I go head to head of 18 coin flips and you win 12 of 18, you would be off if you were expecting a 67% success rate going forward. Knowing that a historical likely range in the 45-55% would be valuable information. Same type of deal.
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The Franchise
post Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE
In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher, I would suggest there is valuable information to be had by using leaguewide data of RHP vs LH batter and vice verse that gives context to the likelihood of success in the matchup you are trying to predict.


In this case, that would be completely irrelevant as you have a large enough sample size to show individuals against each other. If a pitcher were making his debut, it would matter somewhat if facing a heavy lefty or righty lineup, but since major league pitchers have to face everyone it wouldn't be enough to cancel his start. In a pinch hit situation, everyone in baseball knows opposite hitters have a better chance of picking up breaking balls, so opposite side hitters are used almost every time.

And look! Iannetta didn't get the start, the D-Backs must read this page. He pinch-hit later on when Darvish was out.

QUOTE
The same is true in football.


No it isn't.

QUOTE
For example, if I have a data sample of 315 flips of a coin, and I do five other 315 coin flip samples, I may get a range of heads % from 45-55%. Now if you and I go head to head of 18 coin flips and you win 12 of 18, you would be off if you were expecting a 67% success rate going forward. Knowing that a historical likely range in the 45-55% would be valuable information. Same type of deal.


Every individual coin flip is 50%. The more flips we have, the more towards 50% each it will go. I honestly have no idea why you would use coin flips as an example.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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nephillymike
post Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM) *
Every individual coin flip is 50%. The more flips we have, the more towards 50% each it will go. I honestly have no idea why you would use coin flips as an example.


Because in statistics, there is a regression towards the mean. In your Darvish example, the real long term numbers are not likely to be those lopsided ones of their statistically insignificant 18 encounters, but more towards the righty vs lefty and vice verse historical statistically significant numbers.
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The Franchise
post Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM) *
Because in statistics, there is a regression towards the mean.


In terms of coin flips, yes. But it's ridiculous to think that 18 plate appearances is statistically insignificant, especially when coming up with 2-16. Don't take my word for it - the guy was benched yesterday. Results of individual matchups are no doubt affected by lefty-righty alignments, such as Michael Brantley's abysmal 1-13 against Sabathia, but nothing can compare to individual stats, provided there's a few games worth of at-bats to go off of. He'll probably be used to pinch hit tomorrow as well.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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