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- nephillymike   The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Sep 30 2017, 09:07 PM
- - Zero   I didn't follow the links, I also didn't s...   Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 05:11 AM) I did...   Oct 1 2017, 06:34 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 06:54 AM) This ...   Oct 1 2017, 09:30 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 07:34 A...   Oct 5 2017, 03:52 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 04:52 ...   Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 5 2017, 04:31 PM) Becau...   Oct 5 2017, 04:35 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 5 2017, 05:35 ...   Oct 6 2017, 05:16 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 6 2017, 06:16 AM) You k...   Oct 6 2017, 09:44 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 6 2017, 10:44 ...   Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 07:07 AM) I kno...   Oct 7 2017, 11:56 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 12:56 ...   Oct 7 2017, 03:46 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 7 2017, 04:46 PM) I hav...   Oct 7 2017, 04:11 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 P...   Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 ...   Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 P...   Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 ...   Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) Forec...   Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
||- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 ...   Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 04:11 ...   Oct 7 2017, 05:00 PM
- - Rick   Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the ...   Oct 1 2017, 08:18 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 1 2017, 09:18 AM) Excel...   Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 1 2017, 09:36 AM) I...   Oct 1 2017, 09:52 AM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 1 2017, 10:52 A...   Oct 2 2017, 05:06 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 2 2017, 10:06 AM) Well-...   Oct 2 2017, 08:51 AM
- - Zero   RE: The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8   Oct 1 2017, 10:07 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Cool stuff, Mikey.   Oct 1 2017, 11:22 AM
- - mcnabbulous   Don’t be offended, Mike. He’s just an asshole.   Oct 7 2017, 09:43 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 7 2017, 10:43 PM...   Oct 7 2017, 10:44 PM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Oct 8 2017, 03:43 AM...   Oct 8 2017, 07:04 AM
- - nephillymike   http://www.phillyvoice.com/dislodge-yourse...-8-ca...   Oct 8 2017, 07:16 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 8 2017, 07:16 A...   Oct 8 2017, 04:51 PM
|- - The Franchise   I didn't see that earlier. What can I say? I...   Oct 8 2017, 05:39 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 06:39 ...   Oct 9 2017, 05:15 AM
|- - Zero   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 9 2017, 06:15 AM) OMG...   Oct 9 2017, 05:51 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 10:51 AM) I don...   Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM
||- - Zero   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 11:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 9 2017, 10:05 AM) No. H...   Oct 9 2017, 01:30 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 01:30 ...   Oct 9 2017, 09:44 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE In your 18 at bats data of hitter vs pitcher...   Oct 10 2017, 12:52 PM
|||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 12:52...   Oct 10 2017, 08:20 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 10 2017, 08:20 ...   Oct 11 2017, 12:58 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 9 2017, 02:30 ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:22 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE Look at the Yankees/Indians game last night....   Oct 10 2017, 12:59 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 10 2017, 01:59...   Oct 11 2017, 04:54 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:54 AM) Sorr...   Oct 11 2017, 12:45 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 01:45...   Oct 11 2017, 04:09 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 05:09 PM) We...   Oct 11 2017, 04:35 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 11 2017, 05:35...   Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 11 2017, 06:42 PM) And ...   Oct 11 2017, 06:56 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (Zero @ Oct 9 2017, 06:51 AM) ...   Oct 10 2017, 05:14 AM
- - Pila   That's right.   Oct 9 2017, 12:18 PM
- - The Franchise   While 4th and 8 attempts have been pleasantly remo...   Nov 5 2017, 04:32 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 10:32 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:10 PM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Pila @ Nov 5 2017, 06:10 PM) Team ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:21 PM
- - Pila   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Nov 5 2017, 11:21 ...   Nov 5 2017, 05:22 PM
> The detailed analysis of 4th and 1, 4th and 8
The Franchise
post Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 04:59 PM) *
The fact that Pedey quoted a 32% chance and his source was NFL data, does mean that his probability from that distance for 4 th down was eerily similar to the data set I found. He had his set which came to that %


A reporter asked him a question, saying the success rate in that situation was 18% (sounds a lot more accurate in the NFL) - Pedey said the number he went off of was 33%, which yes, is eerily similar to your study that comes from college games. He said nothing about where his data came from.

My whole point has been the intellectual dishonesty of using any study that isn't tailored to the two teams on the field. I have yet to hear anyone come close to arguing that. But if Pedey is going to make blatantly stupid decisions using said intellectually dishonest data, at least use data that comes from the fucking pros, and not college.



--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Rick
post Oct 7 2017, 06:51 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 PM) *
My whole point has been the intellectual dishonesty of using any study that isn't tailored to the two teams on the field.

And, again, this makes no sense if you look at the numbers as they are intended to be used--like in baseball and other sports. Obviously, numbers specifically tailored to the specific situation (100%) with same players, same conditions, etc. would be the perfect study but that isn't realistic. So, instead, they use probabilities to try and predict the outcome of something which is (basically) unpredictable (this goes for ALL sports). However, like when you flip a coin, the probability of you getting a head or tail is x, that does not mean any individual flip will result in a head or a tail.
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nephillymike
post Oct 7 2017, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 7 2017, 05:19 PM) *
A reporter asked him a question, saying the success rate in that situation was 18% (sounds a lot more accurate in the NFL) - Pedey said the number he went off of was 33%, which yes, is eerily similar to your study that comes from college games. He said nothing about where his data came from.

My whole point has been the intellectual dishonesty of using any study that isn't tailored to the two teams on the field. I have yet to hear anyone come close to arguing that. But if Pedey is going to make blatantly stupid decisions using said intellectually dishonest data, at least use data that comes from the fucking pros, and not college.

It's not intellectual dishonesty.

If the historical odds say x%, sure you need to start there, but make adjustments based on circumstance and teams.

The #1 adjustment was how we were moving the ball - very good
How were they moving the ball - poorly
How have they historically played against us - not well
All of these immediate adjustments favor going for it

Now, I think the time left in the half made punting it a better option than normal in that any subsequent NYG drive starting from the 12, may have run out of time, while one starting at the 45 would not have. This favors not going for it.

The net intangible is to go for it.

Would I? Probably not as I tend to be more risk averse. But the logic was there to go for it.

Intellectual honesty is making a strong statement against something, which I did, and then take the time to go do research on it and when the research tells you that I was wrong, lay it out as plainly as possible to show everyone how wrong I was.

My horse in this race was on the other side, remember?

That's my problem with message boards. Intellectual dishonesty. Protect a stance to the very end no matter what is discovered.

It's an honest analysis. Could the actual NFL odds be different? Sure. But his % was damn close.
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The Franchise
post Oct 7 2017, 10:47 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Oct 7 2017, 10:09 PM) *
Intellectual honesty is making a strong statement against something, which I did, and then take the time to go do research on it and when the research tells you that I was wrong, lay it out as plainly as possible to show everyone how wrong I was.


You used data from college - which makes your study inherently dishonest. Try again.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Pila
post Oct 8 2017, 12:53 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 03:47 AM) *
You used data from college - which makes your study inherently dishonest. Try again.

Forecasting is an imperfect science. In every case there's unknown variables, silent factors and the case of the introductory unprecedent driver.

As Rick alluded to - whether the number is college driven or NFL driven doesn't really matter - they can never tailor to the conditions being replicated between the two teams, in that specific situation.

So how does one go about getting a probability factor without being foiled by base rate fallacy?

Realistically chaos guarantees that you cannot hope to ever replicate consistent probability. However, risk modeling has shown that with ample base rates across spectrums you get segments of time of high probability rates before randomness blows it up.

That means using base rates across all spectrums for the sake of frequency isn't intelectual dishonesty. It's inherently flawed, but it's scientifically the least flawed possible.


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Rick
post Oct 8 2017, 08:02 AM
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QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) *
Forecasting is an imperfect science. In every case there's unknown variables, silent factors and the case of the introductory unprecedent driver.

As Rick alluded to - whether the number is college driven or NFL driven doesn't really matter - they can never tailor to the conditions being replicated between the two teams, in that specific situation.

So how does one go about getting a probability factor without being foiled by base rate fallacy?

Realistically chaos guarantees that you cannot hope to ever replicate consistent probability. However, risk modeling has shown that with ample base rates across spectrums you get segments of time of high probability rates before randomness blows it up.

That means using base rates across all spectrums for the sake of frequency isn't intelectual dishonesty. It's inherently flawed, but it's scientifically the least flawed possible.

You explained it so much better than I could have. Thank you.
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The Franchise
post Oct 8 2017, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE (Pila @ Oct 8 2017, 01:53 AM) *
Forecasting is an imperfect science. In every case there's unknown variables, silent factors and the case of the introductory unprecedent driver.

As Rick alluded to - whether the number is college driven or NFL driven doesn't really matter - they can never tailor to the conditions being replicated between the two teams, in that specific situation.

So how does one go about getting a probability factor without being foiled by base rate fallacy?

Realistically chaos guarantees that you cannot hope to ever replicate consistent probability. However, risk modeling has shown that with ample base rates across spectrums you get segments of time of high probability rates before randomness blows it up.

That means using base rates across all spectrums for the sake of frequency isn't intelectual dishonesty. It's inherently flawed, but it's scientifically the least flawed possible.


I wasn't calling him dishonest, if it came across that way. I think he's done as much as can be done with inherently flawed data. I've maintained that if your set of data shows that Tom Brady has the same chance of converting against the Saints as Chase Daniel does against the Chiefs, you need to find new data.

Something tells me we're going to revisit this topic after the game. Call a good one Pedey.....


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Pila
post Oct 8 2017, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Oct 8 2017, 04:45 PM) *
I wasn't calling him dishonest, if it came across that way. I think he's done as much as can be done with inherently flawed data. I've maintained that if your set of data shows that Tom Brady has the same chance of converting against the Saints as Chase Daniel does against the Chiefs, you need to find new data.

Something tells me we're going to revisit this topic after the game. Call a good one Pedey.....

I think the data for this sort of thing will always be flawed.

But yeah, I agree that the call to go for it on 4th and 8 is just a bad call, whether intuitively or not.


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