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[Zero]

Excellent analysis of the numbers. That's the info I've read previously. The problem people have with the numbers is the same problem I see people have in business all of the time. With the numbers people are looking at each individual drive vs. the big picture of the numbers over time. The key here is the numbers are looking at net points, not points per drive, meaning, with ALL things factored in, historically, a team who has gone for it in a particular situation nets x number of points. This means, in some situations, a team may make it and may not score, may score, etc. or NOT make it and not score or the other team may score. The bottom line is, if you're netting out a positive number of points--over time--it makes sense to go for it in certain situations.

Obviously, this doesn't mean you hold to those numbers every time in every situation. If you're up 5 points with 30 seconds left in the game, you probably shouldn't go for it at 4th and 3 on your 30 yard line. That's where the human has to come in and figure out whether it makes sense.

The numbers don't lie...

I'm still not buying it. If this is based on attempts, how often do teams go for 4th and 1 on their own 9, or for 4th and 8 at the 50 even? Numbers don't lie, but where the numbers come from is relevant to the validity of the results.

[nephillymike]

I'm still not buying it. If this is based on attempts, how often do teams go for 4th and 1 on their own 9, or for 4th and 8 at the 50 even? Numbers don't lie, but where the numbers come from is relevant to the validity of the results.

Head meet sand, sand meet head.

It measures two things independently:

How often teams get the 1st down on 4th and 1 on any place on the field that is not a goal to go situation. It also measures how many net points teams score on drives starting at the 9.

There is plenty historical data on each of those scenarios and you can put them together to get a valid analysis.

[Rick]

Head meet sand, sand meet head.

It measures two things independently:

How often teams get the 1st down on 4th and 1 on any place on the field that is not a goal to go situation. It also measures how many net points teams score on drives starting at the 9.

There is plenty historical data on each of those scenarios and you can put them together to get a valid analysis.

Well-said. I don't understand probability math but I understand enough to know, well, it works. Just like how they can poll a relatively-small group of people about something and get an accurate idea of how a larger group feels about a subject.

[Pila]

Well-said. I don't understand probability math but I understand enough to know, well, it works. Just like how they can poll a relatively-small group of people about something and get an accurate idea of how a larger group feels about a subject.

Ever hear of a Black Swan?

There's a saying in forecasting data science. Bet your change in probability, but save your fortune for the Black Swan.