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- Zero   Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8   Sep 25 2017, 07:43 PM
- - nephillymike   Shame Wentz didn't see the field well. About ...   Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Going for it on 4th down when he borderline should...   Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
|- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 ...   Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
- - The Franchise   Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor...   Sep 25 2017, 11:07 PM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07...   Sep 27 2017, 10:48 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 27 2017, 11:48 AM) I ...   Sep 27 2017, 12:20 PM
- - Reality Fan   The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dism...   Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 26 2017, 02:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 02:53 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 03:53...   Sep 26 2017, 03:37 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE First, it would have been thrown to the midd...   Sep 26 2017, 04:41 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE It would've been thrown to the right has...   Sep 27 2017, 01:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   It's just amazing when haters have to grasp at...   Sep 27 2017, 02:34 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 03:34...   Sep 27 2017, 03:03 PM
|- - Eyrie   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 27 2017, 09:03 P...   Sep 27 2017, 05:15 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 27 2017, 06:34 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 07:34...   Sep 28 2017, 08:19 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 08:19 A...   Sep 28 2017, 12:18 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 01:18...   Sep 28 2017, 02:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 03:08 P...   Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM
||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 07:46...   Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM
|||- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 29 2017, 02:44 A...   Sep 28 2017, 09:21 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 08:44 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:24 PM
|||- - Phits   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 11:24...   Sep 29 2017, 09:07 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 28 2017, 10:38 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 11:38 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:53 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 08:21 AM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 02:21 P...   Sep 28 2017, 09:45 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 28 2017, 10:45 AM) No...   Sep 28 2017, 01:57 PM
- - Birdman420   I think if you re-watch the replay of the entire g...   Sep 26 2017, 03:39 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Jesus Christ. It cost us zero points. He had confi...   Sep 27 2017, 06:38 PM
|- - Joegrane   It was a very strange decision. The Eagles' O...   Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM) ...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
||- - Phits   -or- He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took...   Sep 27 2017, 07:14 PM
|||- - Zero   QUOTE (Phits @ Sep 27 2017, 08:14 PM) -or...   Sep 28 2017, 05:01 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 07:59 PM) ...   Sep 28 2017, 08:22 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 12:38 A...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
- - nephillymike   The most astounding thing about the analytics char...   Sep 27 2017, 09:50 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 09:50 ...   Sep 27 2017, 10:57 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 10:50 ...   Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM) Not ...   Sep 28 2017, 07:16 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 28 2017, 08:16 ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 05:14 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:00 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 10:00...   Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) ever...   Sep 29 2017, 10:19 AM
|||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 12:09 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 03:52 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:52 PM) Yes ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:45 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 05:45...   Sep 29 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 07:19 PM) I...   Sep 29 2017, 08:10 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 09:10...   Sep 30 2017, 07:28 AM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:07 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 12:07 P...   Sep 30 2017, 12:15 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 12:15...   Sep 30 2017, 02:37 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 02:37 P...   Sep 30 2017, 02:46 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 02:46...   Sep 30 2017, 05:03 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 05:03 P...   Sep 30 2017, 05:34 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 05:34...   Sep 30 2017, 05:58 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE There is no new guard. Belichick is one of t...   Sep 30 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) Obvi...   Sep 29 2017, 07:53 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:18 AM
- - mcnabbulous   This conversation is exactly why the college produ...   Sep 28 2017, 09:52 AM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 07:57 P...   Sep 28 2017, 04:50 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Aquila @ Sep 28 2017, 05:50 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 10:31 PM
|- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 29 2017, 04:31 A...   Sep 29 2017, 05:06 PM
- - nephillymike   Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time....   Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
- - Zero   What factors are involved? Is the strength of the...   Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM
- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM) What...   Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM
- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 05:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 12:14 PM
> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
Rick
post Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
Post #1


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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 AM) *
There is no adjustment for the strength of the offense or defense. It is strictly based on the historical success rates of teams scoring points from a given starting point of a drive as well as the historical success rate of attaining a first down with X number of yards to go. Teams would need to put in adjustment factors for offense and defense, which is easy enough for teams to do.

Yes, it accounts for the other team's chance of scoring in almost all situations. For instance, for those drives starting at the 10 yard line, it uses net points expected from that drive which is those scored by the offense on those drives minus those scored by the defense from defensive TDs from fumble recoveries and INTs and safeties. That is why when you look at drives starting deep deep in your own territory, there is a negative points expectation.

The one thing it doesn't account for is punt return TD's. If you punt from your own nine and you get a net punt yardage of 36 yards, this analysis assumes the other team starts the drive from the 45 and assigns them expected points based on drives started there. It does not factor in the chance of scoring points via return TD.

This has the impact of UNDERSTATING the number of times you should go for it on 4th down. Punting from your own 9 would have a much greater % chance of a return TD then punting from their 42 as you will have a greater number of fair catches and coffin corner situations when punting from their 42.

Think of it like the 2point conversion chart. That tells you whether you should go for two based upon the historical success rates of teams scoring from the two point yard line. If your red zone offense sucks, off course you need to adjust for that. It is a starting point.


As I've said, the numbers are what the numbers are.

I remember reading a study a couple of years back on this. Can't remember who did it but it was one of the big-name college research teams--well-respected--and they came to a similar conclusion.

As you've said, a coach would adjust for certain factors during the game but, at the end of the day, the numbers can and should be used to help make decisions. Kinda like baseball....
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