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> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
nephillymike
post Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM
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QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM) *
What factors are involved? Is the strength of the defense accounted for or either offense? Arbitrarily, if there's an 80% chance of failure do the numbers account for the other team's chances of scoring? If not, shouldn't it?

There is no adjustment for the strength of the offense or defense. It is strictly based on the historical success rates of teams scoring points from a given starting point of a drive as well as the historical success rate of attaining a first down with X number of yards to go. Teams would need to put in adjustment factors for offense and defense, which is easy enough for teams to do.

Yes, it accounts for the other team's chance of scoring in almost all situations. For instance, for those drives starting at the 10 yard line, it uses net points expected from that drive which is those scored by the offense on those drives minus those scored by the defense from defensive TDs from fumble recoveries and INTs and safeties. That is why when you look at drives starting deep deep in your own territory, there is a negative points expectation.

The one thing it doesn't account for is punt return TD's. If you punt from your own nine and you get a net punt yardage of 36 yards, this analysis assumes the other team starts the drive from the 45 and assigns them expected points based on drives started there. It does not factor in the chance of scoring points via return TD.

This has the impact of UNDERSTATING the number of times you should go for it on 4th down. Punting from your own 9 would have a much greater % chance of a return TD then punting from their 42 as you will have a greater number of fair catches and coffin corner situations when punting from their 42.

Think of it like the 2point conversion chart. That tells you whether you should go for two based upon the historical success rates of teams scoring from the two point yard line. If your red zone offense sucks, off course you need to adjust for that. It is a starting point.
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Rick
post Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 AM) *
There is no adjustment for the strength of the offense or defense. It is strictly based on the historical success rates of teams scoring points from a given starting point of a drive as well as the historical success rate of attaining a first down with X number of yards to go. Teams would need to put in adjustment factors for offense and defense, which is easy enough for teams to do.

Yes, it accounts for the other team's chance of scoring in almost all situations. For instance, for those drives starting at the 10 yard line, it uses net points expected from that drive which is those scored by the offense on those drives minus those scored by the defense from defensive TDs from fumble recoveries and INTs and safeties. That is why when you look at drives starting deep deep in your own territory, there is a negative points expectation.

The one thing it doesn't account for is punt return TD's. If you punt from your own nine and you get a net punt yardage of 36 yards, this analysis assumes the other team starts the drive from the 45 and assigns them expected points based on drives started there. It does not factor in the chance of scoring points via return TD.

This has the impact of UNDERSTATING the number of times you should go for it on 4th down. Punting from your own 9 would have a much greater % chance of a return TD then punting from their 42 as you will have a greater number of fair catches and coffin corner situations when punting from their 42.

Think of it like the 2point conversion chart. That tells you whether you should go for two based upon the historical success rates of teams scoring from the two point yard line. If your red zone offense sucks, off course you need to adjust for that. It is a starting point.


As I've said, the numbers are what the numbers are.

I remember reading a study a couple of years back on this. Can't remember who did it but it was one of the big-name college research teams--well-respected--and they came to a similar conclusion.

As you've said, a coach would adjust for certain factors during the game but, at the end of the day, the numbers can and should be used to help make decisions. Kinda like baseball....
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The Franchise
post Sep 30 2017, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM) *
There is no adjustment for the strength of the offense or defense. It is strictly based on the historical success rates of teams scoring points from a given starting point of a drive as well as the historical success rate of attaining a first down with X number of yards to go.


Which is precisely why this whole useless exercise is just that, useless. I would expect more out of you. I hope even Pederson would blush at this - if he ever goes for it on 4th and 1 from his own 9 and fails, he's going to lose the locker room.

Historical success rates from 31 other teams have absolutely nothing to do with you, your current situation, and the team you're facing. Kinda not like baseball.....


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"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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