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> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
nephillymike
post Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
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Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time.

Based on the detailed recalculation based on actual historical drive stats, it is the mathematical best decision to not only go for it 4th and 8 from your opponents 42, but it is a better decision to go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 9 yard line and every other point on the field than it is to punt.

YEP

Using

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistic...ing-on-4th-down

And

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/i...d-epa-explained

Your expected points are 0.85 better going for it 4th and 1 at your 9 than punting (even ignoring the possibility of a PR TD allowed, in which case it is more)

AND

Your expected points are a slight 0.05 better going for it 4th and 8 from their 42 than punting it down to their 12 yd line. ( also ignoring the punt return for TD possibility)

I don't have time to show my work now, will do it later, but I was shocked how much the 4th and 1 stats were. I will try to post it tomorrow.

For those that know numbers, take a crack at the math and see what you come up with.

The one site is net points from the drive starting point, net of defensive points scored on those drives.
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