
Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8 
Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
Post
#1


Super Bowl Champs Baybee !! Group: Members Posts: 14888 Joined: 23April 04 
Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time.
Based on the detailed recalculation based on actual historical drive stats, it is the mathematical best decision to not only go for it 4th and 8 from your opponents 42, but it is a better decision to go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 9 yard line and every other point on the field than it is to punt. YEP Using http://blog.minitab.com/blog/thestatistic...ingon4thdown And http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/i...depaexplained Your expected points are 0.85 better going for it 4th and 1 at your 9 than punting (even ignoring the possibility of a PR TD allowed, in which case it is more) AND Your expected points are a slight 0.05 better going for it 4th and 8 from their 42 than punting it down to their 12 yd line. ( also ignoring the punt return for TD possibility) I don't have time to show my work now, will do it later, but I was shocked how much the 4th and 1 stats were. I will try to post it tomorrow. For those that know numbers, take a crack at the math and see what you come up with. The one site is net points from the drive starting point, net of defensive points scored on those drives. 


NFL Football Tickets
football flash games

LoFi Version  Time is now: 23rd February 2018  02:58 PM 