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Posts in this topic
- Zero   Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8   Sep 25 2017, 07:43 PM
- - nephillymike   Shame Wentz didn't see the field well. About ...   Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Going for it on 4th down when he borderline should...   Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
|- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 ...   Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
- - The Franchise   Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor...   Sep 25 2017, 11:07 PM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07...   Sep 27 2017, 10:48 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 27 2017, 11:48 AM) I ...   Sep 27 2017, 12:20 PM
- - Reality Fan   The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dism...   Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 26 2017, 02:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 02:53 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 03:53...   Sep 26 2017, 03:37 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE First, it would have been thrown to the midd...   Sep 26 2017, 04:41 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE It would've been thrown to the right has...   Sep 27 2017, 01:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   It's just amazing when haters have to grasp at...   Sep 27 2017, 02:34 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 03:34...   Sep 27 2017, 03:03 PM
|- - Eyrie   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 27 2017, 09:03 P...   Sep 27 2017, 05:15 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 27 2017, 06:34 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 07:34...   Sep 28 2017, 08:19 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 08:19 A...   Sep 28 2017, 12:18 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 01:18...   Sep 28 2017, 02:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 03:08 P...   Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM
||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 07:46...   Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM
|||- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 29 2017, 02:44 A...   Sep 28 2017, 09:21 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 08:44 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:24 PM
|||- - Phits   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 11:24...   Sep 29 2017, 09:07 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 28 2017, 10:38 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 11:38 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:53 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 08:21 AM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 02:21 P...   Sep 28 2017, 09:45 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 28 2017, 10:45 AM) No...   Sep 28 2017, 01:57 PM
- - Birdman420   I think if you re-watch the replay of the entire g...   Sep 26 2017, 03:39 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Jesus Christ. It cost us zero points. He had confi...   Sep 27 2017, 06:38 PM
|- - Joegrane   It was a very strange decision. The Eagles' O...   Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM) ...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
||- - Phits   -or- He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took...   Sep 27 2017, 07:14 PM
|||- - Zero   QUOTE (Phits @ Sep 27 2017, 08:14 PM) -or...   Sep 28 2017, 05:01 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 07:59 PM) ...   Sep 28 2017, 08:22 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 12:38 A...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
- - nephillymike   The most astounding thing about the analytics char...   Sep 27 2017, 09:50 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 09:50 ...   Sep 27 2017, 10:57 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 10:50 ...   Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM) Not ...   Sep 28 2017, 07:16 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 28 2017, 08:16 ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 05:14 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:00 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 10:00...   Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) ever...   Sep 29 2017, 10:19 AM
|||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 12:09 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 03:52 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:52 PM) Yes ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:45 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 05:45...   Sep 29 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 07:19 PM) I...   Sep 29 2017, 08:10 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 09:10...   Sep 30 2017, 07:28 AM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:07 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 12:07 P...   Sep 30 2017, 12:15 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 12:15...   Sep 30 2017, 02:37 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 02:37 P...   Sep 30 2017, 02:46 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 02:46...   Sep 30 2017, 05:03 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 05:03 P...   Sep 30 2017, 05:34 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 05:34...   Sep 30 2017, 05:58 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE There is no new guard. Belichick is one of t...   Sep 30 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) Obvi...   Sep 29 2017, 07:53 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:18 AM
- - mcnabbulous   This conversation is exactly why the college produ...   Sep 28 2017, 09:52 AM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 07:57 P...   Sep 28 2017, 04:50 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Aquila @ Sep 28 2017, 05:50 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 10:31 PM
|- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 29 2017, 04:31 A...   Sep 29 2017, 05:06 PM
- - nephillymike   Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time....   Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
- - Zero   What factors are involved? Is the strength of the...   Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM
- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM) What...   Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM
- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 05:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 12:14 PM
> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
Rick
post Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
Post #1


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Posts: 1486
Joined: 15-September 10



QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46 PM) *
As I've pointed out several times, the data used to come up with the number 32% in that situation is absurd. It can be trashed by any casual fan in a matter of seconds. Not only does it seem to come from mostly college football, it uses an absurd formula where you either have 'goal to go' or you don't. It also isn't tailored to an individual team and its players, against a specific team and its players, with different potential packages on the field. The Browns have a 32% chance of converting against the Chiefs defense? The Patriots have an equal chance against the Saints defense? Apparently so. If I could open the actual data table I'm sure I could spend an entire weekend destroying it. The fact that an NFL head coach is using such data to justify making blatantly stupid decisions is horrifying to me.

It should have cost us the lead, all the momentum, and a lot of morale going into the half, against a team we were dominating - and would've been the difference in the game. Thankfully the Giants wanted the win even less. Against good teams stupid decisions like this are going to bite us, and hard.

And you have seen all of the data and how the numbers have been computed? You know all of this how?

What team you're playing--in the big picture--is irrelevant. Just like in baseball, they bring a left handed batter in to face a right handed pitcher because the numbers say the batter--in the big picture--has a better probability of being successful than a left handed batter in that situation. This is regardless of the pitcher being faced. Now, they may also dig down and look at an individual batter's stats against an individual pitcher but that's much easier to do in a sport where it's an individual against another individual.

Again, I'm not making the argument they should (or shouldn't) have gone for it in this situation. There was only a 32% probability they'd make it. And, this whole argument about this particular play is one of the dumbest things you guys have debated here. It cost the Eagles exactly NOTHING in this game.
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The Franchise
post Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
Post #2


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Group: Members
Posts: 1263
Joined: 23-November 15



QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) *
And you have seen all of the data and how the numbers have been computed? You know all of this how?


Have you read a single post on this thread? That's the whole fucking problem - we don't know. All I know is the data used to make that decision was ridiculous based on what is available. Which makes the rest of your post equally ridiculous.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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