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- Zero   Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8   Sep 25 2017, 07:43 PM
- - nephillymike   Shame Wentz didn't see the field well. About ...   Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Going for it on 4th down when he borderline should...   Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
|- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 ...   Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
- - The Franchise   Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor...   Sep 25 2017, 11:07 PM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07...   Sep 27 2017, 10:48 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 27 2017, 11:48 AM) I ...   Sep 27 2017, 12:20 PM
- - Reality Fan   The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dism...   Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 26 2017, 02:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 02:53 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 03:53...   Sep 26 2017, 03:37 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE First, it would have been thrown to the midd...   Sep 26 2017, 04:41 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE It would've been thrown to the right has...   Sep 27 2017, 01:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   It's just amazing when haters have to grasp at...   Sep 27 2017, 02:34 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 03:34...   Sep 27 2017, 03:03 PM
|- - Eyrie   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 27 2017, 09:03 P...   Sep 27 2017, 05:15 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 27 2017, 06:34 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 07:34...   Sep 28 2017, 08:19 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 08:19 A...   Sep 28 2017, 12:18 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 01:18...   Sep 28 2017, 02:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 03:08 P...   Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM
||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 07:46...   Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM
|||- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 29 2017, 02:44 A...   Sep 28 2017, 09:21 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 08:44 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:24 PM
|||- - Phits   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 11:24...   Sep 29 2017, 09:07 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 28 2017, 10:38 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 11:38 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:53 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 08:21 AM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 02:21 P...   Sep 28 2017, 09:45 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 28 2017, 10:45 AM) No...   Sep 28 2017, 01:57 PM
- - Birdman420   I think if you re-watch the replay of the entire g...   Sep 26 2017, 03:39 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Jesus Christ. It cost us zero points. He had confi...   Sep 27 2017, 06:38 PM
|- - Joegrane   It was a very strange decision. The Eagles' O...   Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM) ...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
||- - Phits   -or- He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took...   Sep 27 2017, 07:14 PM
|||- - Zero   QUOTE (Phits @ Sep 27 2017, 08:14 PM) -or...   Sep 28 2017, 05:01 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 07:59 PM) ...   Sep 28 2017, 08:22 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 12:38 A...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
- - nephillymike   The most astounding thing about the analytics char...   Sep 27 2017, 09:50 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 09:50 ...   Sep 27 2017, 10:57 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 10:50 ...   Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM) Not ...   Sep 28 2017, 07:16 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 28 2017, 08:16 ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 05:14 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:00 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 10:00...   Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) ever...   Sep 29 2017, 10:19 AM
|||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 12:09 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 03:52 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:52 PM) Yes ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:45 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 05:45...   Sep 29 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 07:19 PM) I...   Sep 29 2017, 08:10 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 09:10...   Sep 30 2017, 07:28 AM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:07 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 12:07 P...   Sep 30 2017, 12:15 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 12:15...   Sep 30 2017, 02:37 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 02:37 P...   Sep 30 2017, 02:46 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 02:46...   Sep 30 2017, 05:03 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 05:03 P...   Sep 30 2017, 05:34 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 05:34...   Sep 30 2017, 05:58 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE There is no new guard. Belichick is one of t...   Sep 30 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) Obvi...   Sep 29 2017, 07:53 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:18 AM
- - mcnabbulous   This conversation is exactly why the college produ...   Sep 28 2017, 09:52 AM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 07:57 P...   Sep 28 2017, 04:50 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Aquila @ Sep 28 2017, 05:50 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 10:31 PM
|- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 29 2017, 04:31 A...   Sep 29 2017, 05:06 PM
- - nephillymike   Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time....   Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
- - Zero   What factors are involved? Is the strength of the...   Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM
- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM) What...   Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM
- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 05:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 12:14 PM
> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
Reality Fan
post Sep 28 2017, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 01:18 PM) *
His numbers geek determined that the success rate was 32% - from what we've seen posted, that is based off an almost comically intellectually dishonest set of data models, with data that mostly comes from college football. It is based largely on a simple set of equations that have absolutely nothing to do with your own team, your opposing team, and the different dynamics and matchups related to such. Props to DRock for schooling you again.

I know you're probably too stupid to realize this, but when your job for almost 3 decades is football, then yes, you should know the basic situations you'll be in, inside and out. For quick decision making, that's why coaches also have charts based on different situations. But none of this matters - your gut instinct in that situation should be to punt, end of story. If you're calling up an 'analytics guy' and taking his advice based on the data we've seen, you shouldn't be a coach in the NFL, or any level above Pop Warner.

Analytics is for baseball. It's arguable that it can be attributed to basketball. Football?! NO.


If I am on the other side of you and Mr. Inferiority than I am in a good place.

To say that simply gut decisions rule coaching in any sport indicates you think that all the advancements in the evolution of coaching means nothing. It is one of the silliest things you have said and that is saying something. From QA coaches to review specialists there are a host of people who have input tot he coach as the games goes on. But hey, your right and virtually every team in the NFL and their coaches are wrong.

Now try to pay attention here because you amd Mr. Inferiority seem to miss the entire point....I do not disagree that the ideal call was to punt. Do you understand that? I have said it 3 different ways yet you both appear incapable of understanding basic english and need to rant on about some straw argument. I do understand his thinking and I understand that every team in the league has embraced analytics to varying degrees though most actually use it more than the Eagles who were late to the game with it. I realize that you are too daft to actually read about its use in the league because your brain is tired after the comics.

My point was that, after the decision was made (right or wrong) the correct play call was made and it should have been a first down. You grossly misread the video, calling LBs DBs and displayed your typical lack of football knowledge in doing so and that is to be expected but the bottom line is that the QB missed the chance to move the sticks. You don't like Pederson so he could cure cancer and you would bitch that he is an idiot because it hurts too much.


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The Franchise
post Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM
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QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 03:08 PM) *
To say that simply gut decisions rule coaching in any sport indicates you think that all the advancements in the evolution of coaching means nothing. It is one of the silliest things you have said and that is saying something. From QA coaches to review specialists there are a host of people who have input tot he coach as the games goes on. But hey, your right and virtually every team in the NFL and their coaches are wrong.


As I've pointed out several times, the data used to come up with the number 32% in that situation is absurd. It can be trashed by any casual fan in a matter of seconds. Not only does it seem to come from mostly college football, it uses an absurd formula where you either have 'goal to go' or you don't. It also isn't tailored to an individual team and its players, against a specific team and its players, with different potential packages on the field. The Browns have a 32% chance of converting against the Chiefs defense? The Patriots have an equal chance against the Saints defense? Apparently so. If I could open the actual data table I'm sure I could spend an entire weekend destroying it. The fact that an NFL head coach is using such data to justify making blatantly stupid decisions is horrifying to me.

It should have cost us the lead, all the momentum, and a lot of morale going into the half, against a team we were dominating - and would've been the difference in the game. Thankfully the Giants wanted the win even less. Against good teams stupid decisions like this are going to bite us, and hard.


--------------------
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mcnabbulous
post Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM) *
It should have cost us the lead, all the momentum, and a lot of morale going into the half, against a team we were dominating - and would've been the difference in the game. Thankfully the Giants wanted the win even less. Against good teams stupid decisions like this are going to bite us, and hard.

Why would giving the ball up at midfield against a team with 2.5 games of offensive futility automatically “cost us the lead”.

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Pila
post Sep 28 2017, 09:21 PM
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QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 29 2017, 02:44 AM) *
Why would giving the ball up at midfield against a team with 2.5 games of offensive futility automatically “cost us the lead”.

Nothing is automatic, even against a good team.

And there's also no guarantee that even after a punt that pins the opposition inside the 10 that they won't drive down and score anyway.

But isn't the point to improve ones chances?


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The Franchise
post Sep 28 2017, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM) *
Why would giving the ball up at midfield against a team with 2.5 games of offensive futility automatically “cost us the lead”.


Well, because it should've? Two almost certain TD's in a row, before we stop them on 4th?

Punting isn't fun, but it exists for a reason. I honestly can't believe people are defending Pederson here. This kind of shit is going to bite us hard if he keeps doing it.



--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Reality Fan
post Sep 28 2017, 10:38 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46 PM) *
As I've pointed out several times, the data used to come up with the number 32% in that situation is absurd. It can be trashed by any casual fan in a matter of seconds. Not only does it seem to come from mostly college football, it uses an absurd formula where you either have 'goal to go' or you don't. It also isn't tailored to an individual team and its players, against a specific team and its players, with different potential packages on the field. The Browns have a 32% chance of converting against the Chiefs defense? The Patriots have an equal chance against the Saints defense? Apparently so. If I could open the actual data table I'm sure I could spend an entire weekend destroying it. The fact that an NFL head coach is using such data to justify making blatantly stupid decisions is horrifying to me.

It should have cost us the lead, all the momentum, and a lot of morale going into the half, against a team we were dominating - and would've been the difference in the game. Thankfully the Giants wanted the win even less. Against good teams stupid decisions like this are going to bite us, and hard.


Again...I don't disagree with you on the analytics, their validity and usage or whether it is wise for the Eagles to use them.
For them to have value you would need a sample set with the current players vs. the oppositions current players with injury, etc all factored in and that is not possible. We completely agree on that. But you have a coach who works for a GM and owner who think they are cutting edge na dwere late to the game with it and feel the need to use it heavily. There is no possible way for an NFL team to compile a reasonable data set that could allow them to accurately predict success or failure. My point was, and is that once the call was made he made a great play call and it should have resulted in a first down or a dropped pass. Nothing more, nothing less.
I also think that, considering managements insistence on the analytics, that it is understandable that he made the decision situationally. I would not have done it, you would not have done it but at least there was some rationale for the call no matter how crazy that rationale was. We have seen the guy in New England make similar moves.


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The Franchise
post Sep 28 2017, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 11:38 PM) *
I would not have done it, you would not have done it but at least there was some rationale for the call no matter how crazy that rationale was. We have seen the guy in New England make similar moves.


We're obviously not going to solve this today, but I'll tell you this. In that situation if it was 4th and 1 or 2, I would've supported him going for it.

If there's any silver lining to Pederson's cavalier attitude, it's that we can expect him to always go for it on 4th when the fans feel it's necessary.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Rick
post Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46 PM) *
As I've pointed out several times, the data used to come up with the number 32% in that situation is absurd. It can be trashed by any casual fan in a matter of seconds. Not only does it seem to come from mostly college football, it uses an absurd formula where you either have 'goal to go' or you don't. It also isn't tailored to an individual team and its players, against a specific team and its players, with different potential packages on the field. The Browns have a 32% chance of converting against the Chiefs defense? The Patriots have an equal chance against the Saints defense? Apparently so. If I could open the actual data table I'm sure I could spend an entire weekend destroying it. The fact that an NFL head coach is using such data to justify making blatantly stupid decisions is horrifying to me.

It should have cost us the lead, all the momentum, and a lot of morale going into the half, against a team we were dominating - and would've been the difference in the game. Thankfully the Giants wanted the win even less. Against good teams stupid decisions like this are going to bite us, and hard.

And you have seen all of the data and how the numbers have been computed? You know all of this how?

What team you're playing--in the big picture--is irrelevant. Just like in baseball, they bring a left handed batter in to face a right handed pitcher because the numbers say the batter--in the big picture--has a better probability of being successful than a left handed batter in that situation. This is regardless of the pitcher being faced. Now, they may also dig down and look at an individual batter's stats against an individual pitcher but that's much easier to do in a sport where it's an individual against another individual.

Again, I'm not making the argument they should (or shouldn't) have gone for it in this situation. There was only a 32% probability they'd make it. And, this whole argument about this particular play is one of the dumbest things you guys have debated here. It cost the Eagles exactly NOTHING in this game.
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The Franchise
post Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) *
And you have seen all of the data and how the numbers have been computed? You know all of this how?


Have you read a single post on this thread? That's the whole fucking problem - we don't know. All I know is the data used to make that decision was ridiculous based on what is available. Which makes the rest of your post equally ridiculous.


--------------------
"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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Phits
post Sep 29 2017, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 11:24 PM) *
Well, because it should've? Two almost certain TD's in a row, before we stop them on 4th?

Punting isn't fun, but it exists for a reason. I honestly can't believe people are defending Pederson here. This kind of shit is going to bite us hard if he keeps doing it.

The decision to go for it isn't the issue, the failure to execute a well-called play is the problem. If we continue to be unable to execute well-called plays that will bite us in the ass.


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"Bless my eyes this morning, Jah sun is on the rise once again. The way earthly things are going, anything can happen." Robert Nesta Marley (1945 1981)
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