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- Zero   Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8   Sep 25 2017, 07:43 PM
- - nephillymike   Shame Wentz didn't see the field well. About ...   Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Going for it on 4th down when he borderline should...   Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
|- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 ...   Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
- - The Franchise   Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor...   Sep 25 2017, 11:07 PM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07...   Sep 27 2017, 10:48 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 27 2017, 11:48 AM) I ...   Sep 27 2017, 12:20 PM
- - Reality Fan   The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dism...   Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 26 2017, 02:40 P...   Sep 26 2017, 02:53 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 03:53...   Sep 26 2017, 03:37 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE First, it would have been thrown to the midd...   Sep 26 2017, 04:41 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE It would've been thrown to the right has...   Sep 27 2017, 01:31 PM
|- - The Franchise   It's just amazing when haters have to grasp at...   Sep 27 2017, 02:34 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 03:34...   Sep 27 2017, 03:03 PM
|- - Eyrie   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 27 2017, 09:03 P...   Sep 27 2017, 05:15 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 27 2017, 06:34 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 27 2017, 07:34...   Sep 28 2017, 08:19 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 08:19 A...   Sep 28 2017, 12:18 PM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 01:18...   Sep 28 2017, 02:08 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 03:08 P...   Sep 28 2017, 07:46 PM
||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 07:46...   Sep 28 2017, 08:44 PM
|||- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 29 2017, 02:44 A...   Sep 28 2017, 09:21 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 08:44 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:24 PM
|||- - Phits   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 11:24...   Sep 29 2017, 09:07 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 28 2017, 10:38 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 11:38 P...   Sep 28 2017, 10:53 PM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 28 2017, 08:46...   Sep 29 2017, 04:30 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 05:30 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 08:54 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Eyrie @ Sep 27 2017, 06:15 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 08:21 AM
|- - D Rock   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 02:21 P...   Sep 28 2017, 09:45 AM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 28 2017, 10:45 AM) No...   Sep 28 2017, 01:57 PM
- - Birdman420   I think if you re-watch the replay of the entire g...   Sep 26 2017, 03:39 PM
- - mcnabbulous   Jesus Christ. It cost us zero points. He had confi...   Sep 27 2017, 06:38 PM
|- - Joegrane   It was a very strange decision. The Eagles' O...   Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 06:59 PM) ...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
||- - Phits   -or- He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took...   Sep 27 2017, 07:14 PM
|||- - Zero   QUOTE (Phits @ Sep 27 2017, 08:14 PM) -or...   Sep 28 2017, 05:01 AM
||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 07:59 PM) ...   Sep 28 2017, 08:22 AM
|- - Pila   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 28 2017, 12:38 A...   Sep 27 2017, 07:11 PM
- - nephillymike   The most astounding thing about the analytics char...   Sep 27 2017, 09:50 PM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 09:50 ...   Sep 27 2017, 10:57 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 27 2017, 10:50 ...   Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 28 2017, 05:30 AM) Not ...   Sep 28 2017, 07:16 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 28 2017, 08:16 ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM
|- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:25 AM) And ...   Sep 29 2017, 05:14 AM
|- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:00 AM
||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 10:00...   Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM
||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) ever...   Sep 29 2017, 10:19 AM
|||- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 12:09 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 11:19...   Sep 29 2017, 03:52 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 04:52 PM) Yes ...   Sep 29 2017, 04:45 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 05:45...   Sep 29 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 07:19 PM) I...   Sep 29 2017, 08:10 PM
|||- - Rick   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 09:10...   Sep 30 2017, 07:28 AM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:07 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 12:07 P...   Sep 30 2017, 12:15 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 12:15...   Sep 30 2017, 02:37 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 02:37 P...   Sep 30 2017, 02:46 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 02:46...   Sep 30 2017, 05:03 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 30 2017, 05:03 P...   Sep 30 2017, 05:34 PM
||||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 30 2017, 05:34...   Sep 30 2017, 05:58 PM
||||- - The Franchise   QUOTE There is no new guard. Belichick is one of t...   Sep 30 2017, 06:19 PM
|||- - mcnabbulous   QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 29 2017, 08:10...   Sep 30 2017, 12:08 PM
||- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Rick @ Sep 29 2017, 09:23 AM) Obvi...   Sep 29 2017, 07:53 PM
|- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 29 2017, 06:14 ...   Sep 29 2017, 09:18 AM
- - mcnabbulous   This conversation is exactly why the college produ...   Sep 28 2017, 09:52 AM
- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 28 2017, 07:57 P...   Sep 28 2017, 04:50 PM
|- - Reality Fan   QUOTE (Aquila @ Sep 28 2017, 05:50 PM) It...   Sep 28 2017, 10:31 PM
|- - Aquila   QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 29 2017, 04:31 A...   Sep 29 2017, 05:06 PM
- - nephillymike   Upon further review, I stand corrected. Big time....   Sep 29 2017, 11:33 PM
- - Zero   What factors are involved? Is the strength of the...   Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM
- - nephillymike   QUOTE (Zero @ Sep 30 2017, 04:03 AM) What...   Sep 30 2017, 05:43 AM
- - Rick   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 06:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 07:31 AM
- - The Franchise   QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 30 2017, 05:43 ...   Sep 30 2017, 12:14 PM
> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
mcnabbulous
post Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
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Going for it on 4th down when he borderline shouldn’t means Doug is likely to go for it when he definitely should. Which is much better than most coaches. I’m all for it.
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nephillymike
post Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM) *
Going for it on 4th down when he borderline shouldn’t means Doug is likely to go for it when he definitely should. Which is much better than most coaches. I’m all for it.

I know the chart says it is borderline. My point is the chart doesn't account for the improvement of NY getting points in those situations and it isn't close to borderline from the 43, given the potential outcomes. My strong guess is that it focuses on improving OUR chances of getting points, without netting it against the improvement of them getting points from us failing.

Right off the bat, you know we only have a 33% chance of us continuing the drive and us having the opportunity to score points. With a 67% chance of failure, it is twice as likely that they will have the opportunity to better their chances of getting points.

If you use just the one case of expected points of a drive by us starting at the NYG 35 (after we get the 1st) and times that by .33 and compare that to the change in their expected points starting a drive from their 35, assuming we come up short, and them starting at their 10 after an expected punt by Jones, and multiply that likelihood by .67, you will have made a decision that increases their expected points scored more than ours. When you add the fact that there is only slightly over 2 min left, that 25 yard difference in starting point for them is huge.

It's flawed.

I agree the NFL is too conservative, but this chart doesn't seem to properly account for it.

Maybe the chart wasn't laminated and sweat fell on it and blurred the decision!
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mcnabbulous
post Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM) *
I agree the NFL is too conservative, but this chart doesn't seem to properly account for it.

Given the way NYG's offense was performing, I'd say there is less risk? And subsequently, had we put more points on the board in the situation, we would have been in an even more formidable position in the second half?

You give me a 33% chance to potentially put the game out of reach in the first half and it seems pretty damn compelling.
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