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> Check out Baldy breaking down the 4th and 8
Zero
post Sep 25 2017, 07:43 PM
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nephillymike
post Sep 25 2017, 10:32 PM
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Shame Wentz didn't see the field well.

About the Kempski analysis he refers to, it is flawed IMO. He mentions giving up 32 yards of field position as if that is all your giving up.

You need to do plus/minus analysis on expected net points given the amount of time left and all the scenarios.

With relative little time left (2:36 ), the difference between NYG starting at the 13 or the 43 is a big difference in expected points.

The methodology that needs to go into it is the expected points on each expected outcome.

For example, the Eagles realistically could have had several outcomes, just to name the most reasonable:

A 1st down at about the 33
Instant points on a TD
Stopped in the 43-37 yard range
A sack with giving up on yards stopped around midfield.
Instant points on a defensive TD.
Punt outcomes.

My guess is that the expected points on outcomes by going for it there are less than the expected points for the NYG outcomes if they don't make it.
This is especially true given on 2.36,remaining. The longer field with limited time is a fig factor.






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mcnabbulous
post Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM
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Going for it on 4th down when he borderline shouldn’t means Doug is likely to go for it when he definitely should. Which is much better than most coaches. I’m all for it.
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The Franchise
post Sep 25 2017, 11:07 PM
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Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor there could've been an easy pick-6. The obvious choice is to Blount, who would've had a tough time picking it up, but could've. It would've had to be fast, and he hesitated - as someone with his experience would, as he was focusing solely on picking up the first down. The big travesty here is Pederson putting him in that position. Punt the fucking ball.


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nephillymike
post Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Sep 25 2017, 10:40 PM) *
Going for it on 4th down when he borderline shouldn’t means Doug is likely to go for it when he definitely should. Which is much better than most coaches. I’m all for it.

I know the chart says it is borderline. My point is the chart doesn't account for the improvement of NY getting points in those situations and it isn't close to borderline from the 43, given the potential outcomes. My strong guess is that it focuses on improving OUR chances of getting points, without netting it against the improvement of them getting points from us failing.

Right off the bat, you know we only have a 33% chance of us continuing the drive and us having the opportunity to score points. With a 67% chance of failure, it is twice as likely that they will have the opportunity to better their chances of getting points.

If you use just the one case of expected points of a drive by us starting at the NYG 35 (after we get the 1st) and times that by .33 and compare that to the change in their expected points starting a drive from their 35, assuming we come up short, and them starting at their 10 after an expected punt by Jones, and multiply that likelihood by .67, you will have made a decision that increases their expected points scored more than ours. When you add the fact that there is only slightly over 2 min left, that 25 yard difference in starting point for them is huge.

It's flawed.

I agree the NFL is too conservative, but this chart doesn't seem to properly account for it.

Maybe the chart wasn't laminated and sweat fell on it and blurred the decision!
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mcnabbulous
post Sep 26 2017, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 26 2017, 05:35 AM) *
I agree the NFL is too conservative, but this chart doesn't seem to properly account for it.

Given the way NYG's offense was performing, I'd say there is less risk? And subsequently, had we put more points on the board in the situation, we would have been in an even more formidable position in the second half?

You give me a 33% chance to potentially put the game out of reach in the first half and it seems pretty damn compelling.
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Reality Fan
post Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM
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The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dismiss as a "sure pick 6" which is especially silly is that there were 2 options directly in front of him and he missed both by apparently being locked onto one receiver. I was listening to Ross Tucker today and he scared me even more because he is very worried about Wentz.


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The Franchise
post Sep 26 2017, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE (Reality Fan @ Sep 26 2017, 02:40 PM) *
The bottom line those opposed to it ignore or dismiss as a "sure pick 6" which is especially silly is that there were 2 options directly in front of him and he missed both by apparently being locked onto one receiver. I was listening to Ross Tucker today and he scared me even more because he is very worried about Wentz.


The angle is pretty clear to me, throwing to Agholor was dangerous, and could've been an easy pick-6, my exact words from before. I'm not sure where you read 'sure pick 6,' maybe on another board. Blount was open and Wentz hesitated, then it was too late.

Tell Ross Tucker to be more worried about Pederson doing anything other than punting in that situation, not about our 2nd year QB missing a throw.


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Reality Fan
post Sep 26 2017, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 03:53 PM) *
The angle is pretty clear to me, throwing to Agholor was dangerous, and could've been an easy pick-6, my exact words from before. I'm not sure where you read 'sure pick 6,' maybe on another board. Blount was open and Wentz hesitated, then it was too late.

Tell Ross Tucker to be more worried about Pederson doing anything other than punting in that situation, not about our 2nd year QB missing a throw.


My apologies...it is silly to think it could have even been and "easy pick 6". First, it would have been thrown to the middle of the field, never an "easy pick 6", second, Algholar is wide open. Third, the defender on the lower side of the coverage is moving forward not laterally so he is no threat to make the pick and the top coverage is already moving to Blount and 4th, it is not a tough throw and fifth, Brian Baldinger, who does this for a living, thinks you are completely wrong.

Your problem is that you can never see the forest for the trees. Whether or not they should have gone for it is irrelevant....in that situation the QB made 2 terrible decisions/actions. One was missing what should have been his read and a great chance at a first down and second, he compounded what you think was a terrible decision by making one of his own and taking a sack.

Thanks for playing.


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Birdman420
post Sep 26 2017, 03:39 PM
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I think if you re-watch the replay of the entire games' offense, you will see that Carson misses at least 5 chances at huge gains with WR's being miles open. On a few plays carson even seemed to look directly at that wide open receiver and still not throw to him. There was a fade to the endzone that he threw to jeffery, when you look around the goaline pylon you see a wide open NA.

After watching the game again, I'm two things, super excited that Wentz now has a top caliber receiving core, and a little bummed that Wentz is not automatic yet, his vision is his biggest problem and it's IMO the #1 thing a QB needs to take a team deep into the playoffs. Defenses are only going to tighten up as the year goes long and wentz needs to tighten himself up if we have any chance on a playoff birth.
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The Franchise
post Sep 26 2017, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE
First, it would have been thrown to the middle of the field, never an "easy pick 6"


It would've been thrown to the right hash mark, at the CB, with absolutely nobody in front of him.

QUOTE
second, Algholar is wide open.


He had slowed down and the CB was directly under him when Wentz saw him. Then he checked down to Blount. Try imagining this in 3D.

QUOTE
Third, the defender on the lower side of the coverage is moving forward not laterally so he is no threat to make the pick


Well done.

QUOTE
and the top coverage is already moving to Blount


After Wentz checked down. You are aware DB's are trained to follow the QB's eyes and where he's looking, correct? Maybe tell 'Baldy' that.

QUOTE
and 4th, it is not a tough throw


Based on your experience playing 'rookie mode' in Madden, sure.

QUOTE
and fifth, Brian Baldinger, who does this for a living, thinks you are completely wrong.


Brian Baldinger is a former o-lineman and a meathead. His job is to find things to talk about. Pederson coaches for a living, yet we won despite him. Ryan Leaf used to QB for a living. Chip Kelly was a GM for a living. Get it?

QUOTE
Your problem is that you can never see the forest for the trees.


My problem is we should be focused on an unbelievably stupid decision by Pederson, not by a hesitation from Wentz in a play that he never should've had to make.

Thanks for playing.


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D Rock
post Sep 27 2017, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE (The Franchise @ Sep 26 2017, 05:07 AM) *
Being honest about the angles, throwing to Agholor there could've been an easy pick-6. The obvious choice is to Blount, who would've had a tough time picking it up, but could've. It would've had to be fast, and he hesitated - as someone with his experience would, as he was focusing solely on picking up the first down. The big travesty here is Pederson putting him in that position. Punt the fucking ball.

I would have gone to the outside receiver on the right, who got an outside release and already had the CB on his back as Carson was at the top of his drop. The safety on that side doesn’t “widen-out” and is playing overtop of Agholor. That’s 6 if you stick the throw.



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The Franchise
post Sep 27 2017, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE (D Rock @ Sep 27 2017, 11:48 AM) *
I would have gone to the outside receiver on the right, who got an outside release and already had the CB on his back as Carson was at the top of his drop. The safety on that side doesn€™t €œwiden-out€ and is playing overtop of Agholor. That€™s 6 if you stick the throw.


That's assuming a good deep ball by Wentz, but yes I agree.


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Reality Fan
post Sep 27 2017, 01:31 PM
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QUOTE
It would've been thrown to the right hash mark, at the CB, with absolutely nobody in front of him.

Ummm...except there are 2 LBs on the play, not DBs


QUOTE
He had slowed down and the CB was directly under him when Wentz saw him. Then he checked down to Blount. Try imagining this in 3D.

Again...LBs and there is plenty of room for even a bad QB to make that throw.

QUOTE
After Wentz checked down. You are aware DB's are trained to follow the QB's eyes and where he's looking, correct? Maybe tell 'Baldy' that.

Again...LBs and now you fall back to them reading his eyes? Seriously? For that short a throw there is no time to even react to reading hus eyes if he makes either throw as both options are already open.


QUOTE
Based on your experience playing 'rookie mode' in Madden, sure.

No....I was never a Madden fan...I am just not an idiot. It is a firm pocket and clear throwing lane to either option where the QB can step into the throw...it does not take a genius to see it.


QUOTE
Brian Baldinger is a former o-lineman and a meathead. His job is to find things to talk about. Pederson coaches for a living, yet we won despite him. Ryan Leaf used to QB for a living. Chip Kelly was a GM for a living. Get it?

And you or I are what? more qualified than Baldy? He gets paid to to do it but you are the genius? I love the Pederson comment from clowns like you. First the chirping about Kelly gutting the roster...then how bad Howie drafted...and then Pederson sucks and lost in all the idiotic comment is the irony that this terrible coach takes a shitty roster with no WRs and is 9-10. He must do somethings right. I realize people like you will never admit they are wrong...no big deal. If you did that would be half of your posts.


QUOTE
My problem is we should be focused on an unbelievably stupid decision by Pederson, not by a hesitation from Wentz in a play that he never should've had to make.

Except that he followed what you call a stupid decision with the perfect play call and had 2 wide open options.
By the way, Baldinger was echoed by Ross Tucker who also makes a living analyzing the NFL. They were not alone but I am sure you are much brighter than both of them. I forget...how many years did you play in the league? And what top notch college did you play at?.....I am sure it prepared you much better than either of them.

QUOTE
Thanks for playing.

You are very welcome. Signing autographs at the mall later of are you busy writing your HOF acceptance speech?


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The Franchise
post Sep 27 2017, 02:34 PM
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It's just amazing when haters have to grasp at whatever straw they can find. Just because people get paid money to do things doesn't mean they're infallible - especially ex-NFL offensive linemen, who's main job is to be large. Are you telling me that you never fuck up making a Sausage McMuffin? Chip Kelly got paid millions in exchange for destroying our roster. Random meatheads with an IQ of 80 who used to block linemen don't impress me.

It was a stupid decision, end of story. And no, I could care less if 'Baldy' or Ross Tucker say otherwise. Within the play, Agholor was well covered, and when Wentz turned to Blount, the defenders reacted. As DRock mentioned, going deep to the right was the best option there. This is just video buddy, we can all see this.


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