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> 4th down data.
The Franchise
post Sep 24 2017, 05:28 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 24 2017, 06:16 PM) *
32% is the chance not 20%.

Still, I don't know what the hell the analytics guys are seeing to say that was the odds to play in that spot.

I think I could find many holes in that analysis.


I've torn apart too many of Kevin Rudy's bullshit 'studies' to count. Click on his name, and his profile pic should tell you all you need to know about his knowledge of different dynamics in sports. He's another one who twists data to support passing the ball 80% of the time.

I couldn't open up the tab where he specifies his data, but it's heavily implied that most of it is from college football. There's no fucking way in hell an NFL probability of going for it on 4th and 8 is 32%. And nobody who understands anything about the game would say anything other than it was a completely stupid decision by Pederson. I hope the press pushes him hard on that.


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"If it came down to both teams were even, talent-wise, I think the opponent's team would win if it came down to coaching. Andy Reid got out-coached in a lot of games, man, a lot of big games."
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