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> Worthless research, to put to rest a myth
Wingspan
post May 6 2004, 03:38 PM
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i think i have heard people say "seth joyner wouldn't have even been drafted today, he was an eigth rounder".

well i discovered today that simply is not true. Seth Joyner was the 208th player selected in the 1986 draft. with all the expansion since then (panthers, ravens/browns, jaguars, texans) and the slew of comp picks here's where seth joyner would have been drafted if he were taken in the following drafts.

2004 - 7th round (7th pick)
2003 - 6th round (35th pick)
2002 - 6th round (36th pick)
2001 - 7th round (8th pick)
2000 - 7th round (2nd pick)
1999 - 7th round (2nd pick)

...i didnt do this for any other reason than my own amusement tongue.gif


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Guest_furiousxgeorge_*
post May 6 2004, 03:55 PM
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AustinFan
post May 6 2004, 04:08 PM
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Drives me crazy when people focus on the draft round, and ignore the draft position.

Example, Gardner was an early 2nd rounder, Pinkston was an early 2nd round, Caver, Brown, Lewis and Williams were late 2nd rounders, Brzezinski and Burgess were early 3rd rounders.

Same thing with first rounders - Simon was a #6 pick, better hit paydirt there, but Mitchell was #25, pickings are a lot thinner at the end of the first round. There's a reason we had to throw in a 2nd rounder the last two years just to move up to #16.

Once you get into the second day of the draft, these sort of picyune distinctions have less meaning. But just from the cost of trading up, there's a big difference between picking early or late in a round on the first day.

So next year, expect all our picks late in the rounds, the Miami pick (#2), KC (#3/#4) and probably the Redskin (#5) picks to be fairly late, while comp picks (5th, 6th, two 7ths?) are at the end of rounds. So it'll still be a good draft, but not as good as it will look just looking at the rounds we pick in.


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Wingspan
post May 6 2004, 05:23 PM
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i think if i had a point to make...it would be that the draft has been watered down with all the comp picks, there was 255 picks this year, basically an 8 round draft (resseting every 32 picks).

i dont really expect to see any of our 7th rounders make the roster. now, they wouldnt even be drafted it if it were a true 7 round draft.


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AustinFan
post May 6 2004, 05:49 PM
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Remember when it was a 12 round draft? 28x12 = 336, so today's late 7th rounders were yesterday's 9th rounders. But the premier undrafted free agents used to be the guys drafted in rounds 10-12. Which plays into the hands of teams like the Eagles under Heckert, who are aggressive about pursuing undrafted free agents (only about 8-10 teams really take advantage of this change each year).

Of course, when someone like Joyner makes it big, everyone forgets how rare it is for anyone after pick 150 to make it as a starter - but with 32 teams, a few will make it every season (I think it's about 7% after pick 150 become solid starters and 6% top reserves, so figure about 14 players drafted each year after round 5 will eventually be worth keeping).

Think I saw a figure that an average of just under 2 undrafted free agents make rosters each year - and only half of these will be major contributors down the road. That's another 30 or so for a total of 44 players a year - or 1.4 per team, half eventual starters, the other half top reserves (Ike Reese types). So if you can beat those odds, you got a real advantage over other teams.

late round picks & FAs the last two seasons:

2002:
Hicks - eventual starter
Steve Edwards - started for the Bears
Kori Dickerson - ???
Brock - starting for Indy
Ena - (maybe a top reserve?) good ST player
Harrison - ???
Hart - maybe a starter at FS down the road


2003:
Mahe (maybe a top reserve?)
Lewis (maybe a top reserve?)
Ephraim - (maybe a top reserve?)
Bridges - (maybe a top reserve?)
Jamaal Jackson - ???
Rayburn - (top reserve, maybe a starter down the road)
Hood - (top reserve)
Mikell - (maybe a top reserve?)




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Cowboyhater
post May 8 2004, 05:00 PM
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If you look back at Buddy Ryan's drafts, he had much more success in the later rounds than in early ones.
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