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[Ig_L]

So everyone's heard of how pathetic our Red Zone TD production was last year. The average TD success for the league was 52% and we were 45% (24th in the NFL). Well that really doesn't tell the whole story. I went back to the NFL play-by-play and did some cypherin'. So I broke the season down into halves and took out the Detroit blowout. Well we were worse than pathetic in games 1-8 (excluding Detroit). We scored touchdowns on 26.1% of our Red Zone appearances. That would be 10% less than the 32nd team (Tenn 36%). What happend in these 7 games? In the GB and Wash games we had 1 TD, 4 FG and a turnover on downs at the end of the Wash game. Then in Detroit, we had 4 TD, no FG and a fumble. To finish out the first half of the season we a turnover on downs as our only RZ attempt against the Giants; 3 FG and a missed FG against the Jets, 3 FG and a TD against Chicago, and things turned around a bit against Minnesota with 3 FG and 2 TD.

In the 2nd half of the season we really improved. We had a 61% TD rate (NFL average is 52%). This would have put us in 4th place in TD percentage. That includes 2 TD and a FG against Dallas, 3 TD against Washington, 2 TD and a FG against Miami, and 3 TD against New England. The Seattle game was back to horrible with 1 FG, a turnover on downs, and an interception. Then to end out the year we were just OK -- 1 TD against the Giants, 1 TD, 1 FG (and the Westbrook knee at the 1 yd line - technically a missed oportunity), 3 TD, 1 FG against New Orleans, and 1 TD, 1 FG and an interception against Buffalo. If you take out the Westbrook knee, we would have had a 64% TD percentage.

Here is our Red Zone performance compared to the NFL average:





See my reply to see the Rushing/Receiving Red Zone Stats and QB Red Zone Statistics

What does this mean? At a minimum, it means we CAN be in the top 5 in Red Zone production. I don't know what the cause of the problems in the first half of the year, but they were eliminated in the first few games of the 2nd half. Then we slid back to just above average in the last few games.

Note: I also posted this at the philadelphiaeagles.com message board.

[Ig_L]

Here are the QB Stats in the Red Zone:



Here are the Rushing/Receiving stats in the Red Zone:

[koolaidluke]

Good analysis, I think it is obvious that we were two different teams last year. We went 3-5 our first 8 games and basically sucked. Our last 8 games we went 5-3 and were a much better team. Don't get me wrong, we weren't very good the second half of the season either but we were certainly much improved.

Had Don not been hurt we'd have won at least 10 games last year.

[Ig_L]

I also broke out the QB play between the 1st half and 2nd half of the season.

[The Rock]

I think McNabb started running the ball more and effectively in the second half of the season. This may have helped our red zone offensive stats.

I was hoping for a red zone weapon (Hardy? or other big wr) in the draft. But if our TE's are healthy then we should be okay.

I am anxious to see what DJax can do in our offense (not specifically the red zone, but in general) as well as special teams. I like that he has swagger/confidence.

[Ig_L]

Here are the splits for the WR's:

[bullwinkle]

Here are the QB Stats in the Red Zone:



Here are the Rushing/Receiving stats in the Red Zone:

This is pretty telling. Schobel is probably the most useless TE in the Red Zone of the Reid era. Unfortunately, with LJ all but useless last year due to injuries, and Celek still finding his way in the first half of the year, We really couldn't use TEs the way we like to use them in the red zone.

Tapeh has moved on because he obviously isn't want you want for a FB when it comes to the red zone. Lets hope his successor is better.

We also need to diversify our attack. 75% of our runs and 31% of our passes in the Red Zone went to Westbrook. Most defenses probably had multiple personnel keying on Westbrook since there was a 55% probability he was getting the ball. But then again, if we can get the OL to block like they did in 2006, I like the idea that we run more than we pass in the Red Zone. We just need to have some plays were we fake it to Westbrook and find someone else to take it in. For example, faking to Westbrook up the middle will allow Booker to take it wide.

Avant looks like he can do well down there. But he was dinged a lot of the year, and not available as much.

Early last year, McNabb was a big part of the problem. But historically, he is very good and he get better last year. Tapeh is gone, and hopefully, Schobel won't be needed in the Red Zone this year. Baskett would be an asset to a QB who could throw a Fade. But McNabb doesn't throw that pass well.

Thanks for the fino Ig-L!

[Commish]

Great work! This helps solidify my thoughts on us being better on offense this year, despite not bringing in a "playmaker." The key is staying healthy and better play from the o-line.

[Ig_L]

IBM has a blog about this topic. I think he did a very thorough job.

What I found most interesting was his comparison of the 2003 and 2004 offenses to 2007 --

(1) 9 more rushing TDs in 2003 with the same number of passing TDs

(2) 12 more passing TDs to the TEs in 2004 with similar TD numbers for other positions

Based on what Reid has said recently, he seems to think it's the TEs.

On the other hand, if we use Buckhalter or Hunt (assuming he improves) more in the RZ, we might have more success than we did last year.

I still think McNabb's return to health is huge, though.

Anyway, here's the link
http://www.igglesblog.com/iggles_blog/2008...er-look-at.html