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> Season Predictions PHI, DAL, NYG, Why a NYG win is Important
nephillymike
post Nov 24 2013, 08:29 AM
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NFL Tiebreakers for Division
1. Head to Head
2. Division record
3. Common Games record
4. Conference record
5. Strength of Victory
6. Strength of Schedule

Using Covers.com power rankings which is a pretty good indicator of strength of NFL teams and NFL lines, here are the remaining schedules and predicted outcomes and margins based on spreads for the remainder of the season:

PHI 6-5 (3-2 Div), (5-2 Conf), (5-5 Common Games)

bye
ARI W3
DET W1
@MIN W4
CHI W1
@DAL L4
Projected 10-6, 3-3, 9-3, 8-6

DAL 5-5 (3-0, 5-2, 5-4)

@NYG L1
OAK W 10.5
@CHI L 3
GB W 9.5
@WAS W 3
PHI W4
Projected 9-7, 5-1, 8-4, 8-6

NYG 4-6, (1-2, 3-4, 4-5)

DAL W1
@WAS W1
@SD L2
SEA L4.5
@DET L6
WAS W7
Projected 7-9, 4-2, 6-6, 7-7

I know there are a bunch of close games, but if the above holds true, we will be 10-5 facing a 8-7 DAL in the last game. Therefore, we will have the division wrapped and the last game won't matter to us, except if it matters for a bye or seeding.

However, if we lose one game we're supposed to win (seems likely so many close ones vs. ARI, DET, CHI) and DAL wins today, then heading into that final game we would be 9-6 facing a 9-6 DAL, winner takes the division, loser goes home.

Also, depending on the other scenarios, division record tiebreaker is next after head to head, and we need DAL to get a division loss before we play them (unlikely that WAS gives them one), so that they have one vs. our two so that a win in that last game in a tied record scenario will allow the tiebreaker to go to common games where we have a chance.

Sure you could say that just for a chance to play for the division in week 17 is a success, but I'd rather have it wrapped up and get into the playoffs rather than risk a season ending loss to knock us out.

In other words:

Let's Go Giants!!
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nephillymike
post Nov 24 2013, 09:54 PM
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Fuckin' Giants!

Now DAL is projected for a 10-6 season which matches ours and their 6-0 division record trumps our 3-3 div record.

Now if we beat them, our 10-6 trumps their 9-7. However, one slip up, and we'd be one game behind them going into the last game with no prayer as we'd lose the tiebreakers.

Fuckin' Giants!!
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JeeQ
post Nov 24 2013, 10:01 PM
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We're in charge of our own destiny. All we have to do is win out and the division is ours. If we fail to then it's completely on us. I see no reason why we can't beat every remaining team on our schedule, and if we can't beat Dallas then they deserve to be the division champions.

If we can manage to pull out the 5-game winning streak after the bye we're going to be one of the most feared teams going into the playoffs.
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Dreagon
post Nov 24 2013, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE (JeeQ @ Nov 24 2013, 09:01 PM) *
We're in charge of our own destiny. All we have to do is win out and the division is ours. If we fail to then it's completely on us. I see no reason why we can't beat every remaining team on our schedule, and if we can't beat Dallas then they deserve to be the division champions.


I think what happened the last couple of weeks has been the best of all possible outcomes. You guys ended the Redskins hope of rallying, and we just stopped the Giants from continuing one of their infamous late season hot streaks. Now the division is effectively down to two teams who both are in control of their own destinies. It might even end up coming down to the last game of the season.

Update: Although watch us lose to the Raiders just because we don't want to do anything drastic like win two games in a row.
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nephillymike
post Nov 24 2013, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE (Dreagon @ Nov 24 2013, 10:07 PM) *
I think what happened the last couple of weeks has been the best of all possible outcomes. You guys ended the Redskins hope of rallying, and we just stopped the Giants from continuing one of their infamous late season hot streaks. Now the division is effectively down to two teams who both are in control of their own destinies. It might even end up coming down to the last game of the season.

Update: Although watch us lose to the Raiders just because we don't want to do anything drastic like win two games in a row.


I may have to dig up my old Kenny Stabler #12 jersey on Thanksgiving just for old time sakes!! Or maybe I'll put it in the Thanksgiving Day shrine with the Leon Lett jersey!! devil03.gif

A loss by Dallas is improbable and may need the help of some old jinx formulas!!
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Dreagon
post Nov 25 2013, 12:01 AM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 24 2013, 10:42 PM) *
Or maybe I'll put it in the Thanksgiving Day shrine with the Leon Lett jersey!! devil03.gif


LOL! Poor Leon Lett. He was actually a really good defensive lineman but he is forever going to be known for that boneheaded play, and the one in the Super Bowl biggrin.gif

Leon Lett Thanksgiving Day
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Rick
post Nov 25 2013, 07:38 AM
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QUOTE (Dreagon @ Nov 24 2013, 10:07 PM) *
I think what happened the last couple of weeks has been the best of all possible outcomes. You guys ended the Redskins hope of rallying, and we just stopped the Giants from continuing one of their infamous late season hot streaks. Now the division is effectively down to two teams who both are in control of their own destinies. It might even end up coming down to the last game of the season.

Update: Although watch us lose to the Raiders just because we don't want to do anything drastic like win two games in a row.

I think the Raider game is a trap game for you guys. Don't ask me why, I just have a feeling.

i'm more concerned about us. We always seem to lose to the Cardinals and they're a good team. Will be a good test for a team which hasn't shown it can beat a good team yet.

Megatron scares the hell out of me against Detroit but we seem to do well against them for some reason. And their defense is horrible.

We'll see how this plays out but it could get interesting.
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Jax
post Nov 25 2013, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE (JeeQ @ Nov 24 2013, 10:01 PM) *
We're in charge of our own destiny. All we have to do is win out and the division is ours. If we fail to then it's completely on us. I see no reason why we can't beat every remaining team on our schedule, and if we can't beat Dallas then they deserve to be the division champions.

If we can manage to pull out the 5-game winning streak after the bye we're going to be one of the most feared teams going into the playoffs.

I agree with this, however finishing on a 8 game win steak is a little beyond what I think this team is capable of doing. But it is possible!
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mcnabbulous
post Nov 25 2013, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE (Jax @ Nov 25 2013, 10:22 AM) *
I agree with this, however finishing on a 8 game win steak is a little beyond what I think this team is capable of doing. But it is possible!

It does seem really unlikely, but every game on the calendar is winnable. I'd actually almost prefer that it comes down to week 17. If we get in, we should earn it. It could be a major stepping stone for the franchise.
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nephillymike
post Nov 25 2013, 12:59 PM
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QUOTE (mcnabbulous @ Nov 25 2013, 12:28 PM) *
It does seem really unlikely, but every game on the calendar is winnable. I'd actually almost prefer that it comes down to week 17. If we get in, we should earn it. It could be a major stepping stone for the franchise.

Problem is, without a division loss,we could be one game behind DAL, win the last gme of theyear and still lose out on tiebreakers despite a decent record and taking care of business in D
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mcnabbulous
post Nov 25 2013, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 25 2013, 01:59 PM) *
Problem is, without a division loss,we could be one game behind DAL, win the last gme of theyear and still lose out on tiebreakers despite a decent record and taking care of business in D

Which would be a shame, because our team at the end of the year would be deserving of a playoff spot. The early season problems and that bullshit game we lost to the Giants with our third string QB will come back to haunt us.
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JeeQ
post Nov 25 2013, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE (Jax @ Nov 25 2013, 06:22 AM) *
I agree with this, however finishing on a 8 game win steak is a little beyond what I think this team is capable of doing. But it is possible!


We're just taking a page out of the NYG's book devil03.gif
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