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> A closer Look at Late Round Picks and UDFA's
nephillymike
post May 5 2018, 08:02 PM
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I took a closer look at our 4th-7th round picks and all of our UDFA that were said to be coming here to see how the draft and scouting sites had them ranked versus where we picked them.

The sources were NFL.com (NFL), DraftScout (DS), Draftek (DT), and (CBS). NFL ranks the top 520, DS the top 1000, DT the top 400 and CBS the top 378. For purposes of these rankngs, if a player was not included in the top 520 of the NFL.com rankings, I assigned the player a rank of 521 as the first outside of the published rankings for that source.

From best rated to worst rated, here are the top 16 of our picks after round 2.

For each player, I list name, position, round drafted, Guar$ (Guar), ranking for each source, AVG ranking, Proj Round (PR). The projected round was just where the average ranking would have them fall. In reality, b/c of the way the averages fall, each of the prospects projected 6th round or lower would actually fall a round better (ie 6th w/b a 5th etc)

Keep in mind, with comp picks, there are actually 256 players in 7 rounds ( actually 8 x 32). If you project the draft out from there, here is where the actual 4th and the imaginary 8th - 12th round pick ranges would be:

65-100 - 3rd round
101-137 - 4th round
138 - 174 - 5th round
175-218 - 6th round
219 - 256 - 7th round
==============
257-288 - 8th round
289-320 - 9th round
321 - 352 - 10th round
353 - 384 - 11th round
385 - 416 - 12th round
----------------------------

Name...........POS.....Rnd(#).........Guar......NFL....DS.....DT....CBS....Avg....PR
Sweat...........DE........4th.(130).....598K.....119....64......65....49......74.....3rd
Adams..........RB........UDFA...........55K......304....176...134...147....190.....6th
Weathersby...OT.........UDFA...........40K......169....187...209...244....202.....6th
Maddox........CB........4th.(125)..... 625K......204...158....252...253....217.....6th
Ostman.........DE........UDFA...........20K......165....336...355...259....279.....8th
Reaves..........DB........UDFA...........30K......308....378...401...141....306.....9th
Roberts.........SS........UDFA........... $0........183....477...254...333....311....9th
Pryor.............OG.......6th.(206)......133K.......196....272...401...379....312....9th
Neal..............FS........UDFA............$0........521....341...207...243....328...10th
Hector...........DT.........UDFA...........60K.......327...392....258...379....339...10th
Sullivan.........CB........UDFA............51K......283....443....401..305....358....11th
Thomas.........CB........UDFA............$0........442....313....398..328....370....11th
Briscoe..........QB........UDFA............$0........386....418....401..379....396....12th
Silvers...........QB........UDFA............$0........470....466....284..379....399....12th
Evans............OT.........UDFA............$0........345....455....401..379....408....12th
Mailata..........OT.........7th.(233)......89K.......521....380....401..379....420....13th

The others below Mailata are really camp fodder.

The NFL.com site, in addition to ranking the players also rates them based on expected performance. Here are the categories and where these 16 rate:

5.50 - 5.99 Chance to Become an NFL Starter (1)
Sweat - 5.59

5.20- 5.49 Backup or Special Teams Potential (5)
Ostman - 5.47
Weathersby - 5.46
Pryor - 5.45
Roberts - 5.40
Maddox - 5.38

5.01 - 5.19 Greater than 50% chance to make an NFL roster (4)
Sullivan - 5.15
Adams - 5.10
Reaves - 5.08
Hector - 5.03

5.00 = 50/50 Shot to make an NFL Roster (2)
Mailata - 5.00
Evans - 5.00

4.75 - 4.99 Should be in an NFL Training Camp (4)
Briscoe - 4.98
Thomas - 4.90
Silvers - 4.89
Neal - not rated by NFL.com

We got a real good haul of UDFA considering we should get one each round and with us being the champs, UDFA will shy away for fear our talent makes it difficult for them to make a squad. However, except for Sweat, it looks like the other three mid-late round picks were reaches.
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nephillymike
post May 11 2018, 07:37 PM
Post #2


Super Bowl Champs Baybee !!


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There's a few hours of my life I'll never get back!

Maybe it's time for Sixers draft research.
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eagle60
post May 11 2018, 07:51 PM
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From: Western Massachusetts



QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 11 2018, 08:37 PM) *
There's a few hours of my life I'll never get back!

Maybe it's time for Sixers draft research.


Just say no! biggrin.gif
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Joegrane
post May 14 2018, 09:17 PM
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From: Philly Area



Thanks for the analysis.

my impression is they swung for the fences in the later rounds. they are players who have the physical tools but are lacking in something that makes them risky.

DE sweat has the injury history, especially in an undersized DE
OT Pryor has history of weight problems.
the Aussie OT has NO experience.
RB Adams has straight line speed and Ok size but not quickness. He also may need surgery. I wonder if he is somewhat like Corell Buckhalter from years ago.

I would not be surprised if the latter two make the PS.

QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 5 2018, 08:02 PM) *
I took a closer look at our 4th-7th round picks and all of our UDFA that were said to be coming here to see how the draft and scouting sites had them ranked versus where we picked them.

The sources were NFL.com (NFL), DraftScout (DS), Draftek (DT), and (CBS). NFL ranks the top 520, DS the top 1000, DT the top 400 and CBS the top 378. For purposes of these rankngs, if a player was not included in the top 520 of the NFL.com rankings, I assigned the player a rank of 521 as the first outside of the published rankings for that source.

From best rated to worst rated, here are the top 16 of our picks after round 2.

For each player, I list name, position, round drafted, Guar$ (Guar), ranking for each source, AVG ranking, Proj Round (PR). The projected round was just where the average ranking would have them fall. In reality, b/c of the way the averages fall, each of the prospects projected 6th round or lower would actually fall a round better (ie 6th w/b a 5th etc)

Keep in mind, with comp picks, there are actually 256 players in 7 rounds ( actually 8 x 32). If you project the draft out from there, here is where the actual 4th and the imaginary 8th - 12th round pick ranges would be:

65-100 - 3rd round
101-137 - 4th round
138 - 174 - 5th round
175-218 - 6th round
219 - 256 - 7th round
==============
257-288 - 8th round
289-320 - 9th round
321 - 352 - 10th round
353 - 384 - 11th round
385 - 416 - 12th round
----------------------------

Name...........POS.....Rnd(#).........Guar......NFL....DS.....DT....CBS....Avg....PR
Sweat...........DE........4th.(130).....598K.....119....64......65....49......74.....3rd
Adams..........RB........UDFA...........55K......304....176...134...147....190.....6th
Weathersby...OT.........UDFA...........40K......169....187...209...244....202.....6th
Maddox........CB........4th.(125)..... 625K......204...158....252...253....217.....6th
Ostman.........DE........UDFA...........20K......165....336...355...259....279.....8th
Reaves..........DB........UDFA...........30K......308....378...401...141....306.....9th
Roberts.........SS........UDFA........... $0........183....477...254...333....311....9th
Pryor.............OG.......6th.(206)......133K.......196....272...401...379....312....9th
Neal..............FS........UDFA............$0........521....341...207...243....328...10th
Hector...........DT.........UDFA...........60K.......327...392....258...379....339...10th
Sullivan.........CB........UDFA............51K......283....443....401..305....358....11th
Thomas.........CB........UDFA............$0........442....313....398..328....370....11th
Briscoe..........QB........UDFA............$0........386....418....401..379....396....12th
Silvers...........QB........UDFA............$0........470....466....284..379....399....12th
Evans............OT.........UDFA............$0........345....455....401..379....408....12th
Mailata..........OT.........7th.(233)......89K.......521....380....401..379....420....13th

The others below Mailata are really camp fodder.

The NFL.com site, in addition to ranking the players also rates them based on expected performance. Here are the categories and where these 16 rate:

5.50 - 5.99 Chance to Become an NFL Starter (1)
Sweat - 5.59

5.20- 5.49 Backup or Special Teams Potential (5)
Ostman - 5.47
Weathersby - 5.46
Pryor - 5.45
Roberts - 5.40
Maddox - 5.38

5.01 - 5.19 Greater than 50% chance to make an NFL roster (4)
Sullivan - 5.15
Adams - 5.10
Reaves - 5.08
Hector - 5.03

5.00 = 50/50 Shot to make an NFL Roster (2)
Mailata - 5.00
Evans - 5.00

4.75 - 4.99 Should be in an NFL Training Camp (4)
Briscoe - 4.98
Thomas - 4.90
Silvers - 4.89
Neal - not rated by NFL.com

We got a real good haul of UDFA considering we should get one each round and with us being the champs, UDFA will shy away for fear our talent makes it difficult for them to make a squad. However, except for Sweat, it looks like the other three mid-late round picks were reaches.

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nephillymike
post May 14 2018, 09:32 PM
Post #5


Super Bowl Champs Baybee !!


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Joined: 23-April 04



QUOTE (Joegrane @ May 14 2018, 09:17 PM) *
Thanks for the analysis.

my impression is they swung for the fences in the later rounds. they are players who have the physical tools but are lacking in something that makes them risky.

DE sweat has the injury history, especially in an undersized DE
OT Pryor has history of weight problems.
the Aussie OT has NO experience.
RB Adams has straight line speed and Ok size but not quickness. He also may need surgery. I wonder if he is somewhat like Corell Buckhalter from years ago.

I would not be surprised if the latter two make the PS.

I do this type of analysis most years and a few things stand out:

Sweat was a real nice value find in round four.

Maddox, Pryor and Mailata were big reaches in their draft slots.

We had perhaps the best UDFA haul that I can remember. If you think of it this way. We are one of 32 teams signing players and are competing with the other 31. We should, on average, have one player from each of the 8th through the 16 th rounds. We got 2 that shb drafted. We got another ten that shb in the 8th- 12th rounds when we should have gotten five. And the only guy of our top 16 that is below 12th round grade is the physical freak rugby player who based on his measurables and intrigue is worth the shot. Also, the way the averages work in the rankings, you can move these guys up a round in real life. I never remember coming any where close to this type of haul in UDFA. And you figure players would shy away because our talent would make it harder for them to stick.

You will see so many bogus injuries with this bunch this year for the IR stash that it will make Joe Gibbs blush!

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Joegrane
post May 14 2018, 10:54 PM
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I did not have a problem with any of the 3rd day picks, including Maddox.

The Eagles have been burned quite a bit by small, shifty slot CBs. Maddox has both speed and quickness but lacks size. Supposedly he is feisty. I suppose teams will use picks and bunch formations against him to try to create mismatches.

I liked the combination of Pryor and Mailata. The latter provides competition for Prior who might lack motivation.

Also don't rule out Mailata as a blocking TE down the road. The Eagles occasionally bring in an extra O Lineman. In this case it would be a guy with ability to catch a ball and run in traffic after catch.

Compare Mailata's Pro Day numbers to the Big V's numbers from mockdraftable.

Measurable.........Measurement.....%tile......Mailata
Height................6' 6"..................60.........6-8
Weight...............320 lbs...............67.........345
Arm Length.........34¼".................54.........35.5
Hand Size...........10⅝".................85..........11
40 Yard Dash........5.26s...............54..........5.1
Vertical Jump........29"..................63..........28
Broad Jump..........113"................94......... 106
3-Cone Drill.........8.26s.................9............8
20 Yard Shuttle......5s...................10..........4.7
Bench Press...........23 reps............41..........22


QUOTE (nephillymike @ May 14 2018, 09:32 PM) *
I do this type of analysis most years and a few things stand out:

Sweat was a real nice value find in round four.

Maddox, Pryor and Mailata were big reaches in their draft slots.

...

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