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Eagles Forum _ Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion _ Check out this analysis of Pedey's 4th down calls

Posted by: nephillymike Feb 21 2018, 09:03 PM

http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/

The defense kept its end of the deal time and time again.

Posted by: samaroo Feb 21 2018, 09:18 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 11:03 AM) *
http://www.phillyvoice.com/analysis-all-29-doug-pedersons-4th-down-go-it-calls-2017/

The defense kept its end of the deal time and time again.

I was going to post that as well. I wonder if anyone here ever railed against Dougie P for those calls, I have a hard time remembering... cool.gif

Posted by: Joegrane Feb 21 2018, 09:37 PM

Easier to do when you have a very good O Line, powerful Rt OG, big athletic QB, Big RB.

QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 21 2018, 09:18 PM) *
I was going to post that as well. I wonder if anyone here ever railed against Dougie P for those calls, I have a hard time remembering... cool.gif


Posted by: samaroo Feb 21 2018, 10:00 PM

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Feb 22 2018, 11:37 AM) *
Easier to do when you have a very good O Line, powerful Rt OG, big athletic QB, Big RB and Big Balls.


Fixed.

Posted by: nephillymike Feb 21 2018, 10:36 PM

QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 21 2018, 10:00 PM) *
Fixed.

biggrin.gif

Posted by: eagle60 Feb 21 2018, 11:45 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 21 2018, 10:36 PM) *
biggrin.gif


I think that it was Mike Stoops that called them "alumni plays". If you don't make them the alumni want to fire you. I think coaches punt too often too but given that 4th and 8 situation and the time left in the half from the Giant 43 I thought that was a horrible call (that's an alumni call on my part). Why give them any momentum when you're way ahead? I think that we beat the Patriots on a dumb fake punt our something when they had us on the run and it turned the game around and we won a few years ago. I didn't have any problem with the rest of them though. Of course when you make a lot of them like we did last year there's not much to bitch about. Belichick goes for a lot of them too. I was surprised they kicked a FG after the McLeod tackle.

Posted by: The Franchise Feb 22 2018, 12:59 AM

Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.

Posted by: samaroo Feb 22 2018, 01:46 AM

QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:59 PM) *
Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.

C'mon man, find a different nit to pick. If he coached this way for the next 20 years every year, I'd give him 5 times the amount of screw-ups a season before it bothered me.

Posted by: The Franchise Feb 22 2018, 03:31 AM

QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 22 2018, 02:46 AM) *
C'mon man, find a different nit to pick. If he coached this way for the next 20 years every year, I'd give him 5 times the amount of screw-ups a season before it bothered me.


Hey buddy, the post was meant to troll, and troll it did. I just stuck by my opinion.

Posted by: nephillymike Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM

QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 12:59 AM) *
Almost all of his 4th down calls I agree with, and it's a big reason we beat the Pats. I'll never stop railing against that stupid 4th and 8 decision when the subject comes up, but he learned from that the rest of the year and didn't cross from 'bold' into 'idiocy' ever again. I can honestly say I don't remember any huge mistakes after that in his game management, apart from tiny blunders any coach runs in to.

That 4th and 8 was definitely a conversation starter!

I remember doing a bunch of research on it and being surprised just how often the odds say you should go for it on 4th down. There was a thing called expected points depending on drive starting point etc. There was a chart I remember that basically said it was technically wrong to go for it on that play, but if he was two yards closer, it would have been right to go for it. Trust in your defense is a big factor. Shit, you don't come out of the season with a 73-3 point difference as a result of 4th downs without both the O and D doing a great job.

Posted by: Rick Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM) *
I remember doing a bunch of research on it and being surprised just how often the odds say you should go for it on 4th down. There was a thing called expected points depending on drive starting point etc. There was a chart I remember that basically said it was technically wrong to go for it on that play, but if he was two yards closer, it would have been right to go for it. Trust in your defense is a big factor. Shit, you don't come out of the season with a 73-3 point difference as a result of 4th downs without both the O and D doing a great job.

Exactly. Finally, someone is looking at the NUMBERS and actually making decisions based on them, instead of doing what football people have done for years. Amazing how the numbers play out the way they're supposed to...

Breath of fresh air.

Posted by: nephillymike Feb 22 2018, 06:02 AM

QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 22 2018, 05:34 AM) *
Exactly. Finally, someone is looking at the NUMBERS and actually making decisions based on them, instead of doing what football people have done for years. Amazing how the numbers play out the way they're supposed to...

Breath of fresh air.

As a result of our success, this will be a trend starter and you will see significantly more fourth down attempts than previous practice in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I'm comfortable and expect us to go for it on so many fourth downs.

Posted by: The Franchise Feb 22 2018, 02:11 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 05:15 AM) *
That 4th and 8 was definitely a conversation starter!


To say the least.

I know that statistically you should never punt on 4th and 1, but obviously you're going to have a tough time explaining that one to your fans if you fail on your own 20. Doug's calls have been outstanding.

Posted by: mcnabbulous Feb 22 2018, 03:41 PM

People need to be less focused on the specifics, or even the results, and just be happy with the thought process.

He's gonna make decisions you question, but it's very apparent that they're at least grounded in intelligent statistical analysis.

The one analogy that comes to mind is Bill O'Brien's short tenure at PSU. After the sanctions, he basically rolled with a "nothing to lose" mindset and it worked out tremendously. The feeling was that he would carry that mentality to the NFL.

Alas, once he went to HOU, he started calling it like every other boring ass, conservative NFL coach. And his results have been tremendously mediocre.

I couldn't be more happy that Doug isn't that guy. Regardless of the outcome.

Posted by: Rick Feb 22 2018, 04:12 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 06:02 AM) *
As a result of our success, this will be a trend starter and you will see significantly more fourth down attempts than previous practice in the NFL.

I don't know about you, but I'm comfortable and expect us to go for it on so many fourth downs.

I'm with you.

Although I'm not so sure more people will go for it--at least not a HUGE amount of people. The NFL is notorious for being conservative.

Better for us.

Posted by: samaroo Feb 22 2018, 06:54 PM

QUOTE (Rick @ Feb 23 2018, 06:12 AM) *
I'm with you.

Although I'm not so sure more people will go for it--at least not a HUGE amount of people. The NFL is notorious for being conservative.

Better for us.

Good. Let them tell Doug how wrong he is all they want. I'll bet it was hard to hear them over the crowd noise at the parade. And maybe Jason can work it into his speech at the next one.

Posted by: nephillymike Feb 22 2018, 08:03 PM

QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 22 2018, 02:11 PM) *
To say the least.

I know that statistically you should never punt on 4th and 1, but obviously you're going to have a tough time explaining that one to your fans if you fail on your own 20. Doug's calls have been outstanding.

I know about that Fourth and 1. I remember thinking the guy who put that out was on drugs and then recalculating the expected points and was like, damn, I learned something today!

So, are we all on board when it's 4th and one from our 12 yard line and we go for it?

Now THAT would be ballsy. And, truth be told, we could end the argument with " we won the super bowl", drop the mic and be on our way, regardless of the outcome. It's a good fall back line.

Posted by: The Franchise Feb 22 2018, 09:38 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Feb 22 2018, 09:03 PM) *
So, are we all on board when it's 4th and one from our 12 yard line and we go for it?


Umm, no.

I think using EP in the variable is horseshit, but if it's 4th and 1 at your own 12 I'm not sure how using EP helps that decision. It doesn't matter anyway - I don't want to relitigate the whole subject, but some basic accepted NFL norms have to factor into your coaching strategy.

Posted by: samaroo Feb 22 2018, 09:47 PM

How about we all agree that Doug is really good at this, and let him make the decisions.

That should free up some time for us to drink beer on game day instead.

cheers.gif

Posted by: The Franchise Feb 22 2018, 11:36 PM

QUOTE (samaroo @ Feb 22 2018, 09:47 PM) *
How about we all agree that Doug is really good at this, and let him make the decisions.

That should free up some time for us to drink beer on game day instead.

cheers.gif


I'm pretty sure that 100% of us agree on this.

cheers.gif

But I'm always up for a stat talk. It's a long offseason.

Posted by: samaroo Feb 23 2018, 12:30 AM

QUOTE (The Franchise @ Feb 23 2018, 01:36 PM) *
I'm pretty sure that 100% of us agree on this.

cheers.gif

But I'm always up for a stat talk. It's a long offseason.

Oh yeah? Well then, argue with this, smart guy!

The Eagles are the best team in football. Let me back up my bold claim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Philadelphia_Eagles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhIFNxEz1qc

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