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Eagles Forum _ Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion _ What are the Odds?

Posted by: nephillymike Dec 29 2017, 10:07 PM

Of going to the Super Bowl?

The strict probabilities say that a team needing to win two games in a row, has a 50% chance of winning both games, or a 25% chance Of going to the Super Bowl.

Not too impressive.

But now, what if we use historical win %s of home teams, since we would be at home?

Home teams in the NFL win 57% of the time. Two in a row at this rate , gives us a 32.5% chance, a little bit better.

What does history say of Of home teams in the divisional and championship games?

This is much better.

In the last 15 years of the playoffs, home teams in the divisional games are 40-20, a .667 clip, and championship game home teams are a better 21-9, a 70% clip.

Do the math on these two, and that gives us a 47% chance.

Since each year is different, how would we match up against this year's field? One way to figure that out is to use a football analytics measure of predictive point spreads and to look up how often teams favored by that many win the game. Using power rankings, here are the points we would be favored by in games at the Linc, followed by historical win rates for that point spread margin:

ATL 4.5, 67%
SEA 4.0, 66%
CAR 3.0, 59%
LAR 2.5, 55%
NO 1.5, 52%
MIN 1.0, 51%

So, we could be looking at a 55% LAR and a 51% combo, or a 28% chance.

Nothing special.

Pick your method, but our chances are 25-47% of going to the dance.

I think the last one of predicted point spread is the most accurate, but I'll sweeten it to 30%, sssuming that one lower rated than the LAR and MIN plays us.

Still nothing to bet the house on!

Posted by: Eyrie Dec 30 2017, 06:33 AM

Worth remembering that whilst we may have a 30% chance of making the Superbowl, the remaining 70% is split between five teams and none of those will have a better percentage chance.

So compared to the other NFC teams, we have a very good chance of hosting the title game and a decent chance of reaching the SuperBowl.

I'll take that, although the percentages reflect my own lack of optimism that we'll win more than one play off game.

Posted by: Rick Dec 30 2017, 06:41 AM

Then again, you didn't figure in the, "But this is Philly," factor. That automatically lowers our chances. wink.gif

Posted by: The Franchise Dec 30 2017, 02:34 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Dec 29 2017, 11:07 PM) *
championship game home teams are a better 21-9, a 70% clip.

Yeah - or in Philly, where we're 1-2 at home in that stretch.

Posted by: Rick Dec 30 2017, 07:30 PM

QUOTE (The Franchise @ Dec 30 2017, 03:34 PM) *
Yeah - or in Philly, where we're 1-2 at home in that stretch.

See my post above this one...

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