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Eagles Forum _ Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion _ Odd stats matchups for this week vs DEN

Posted by: nephillymike Nov 1 2017, 10:18 PM

Using the matchups of the averages of our D vs their O and vice versa, here's how it looks for this week:

Expected Points we win 25.0 - 18.8
Expected Yards, they win 334-316
Yds per Rush Att, they win 4.1 - 3.6
Yds per Pass Att, we win 6.65 - 6.20
Passer Rating, we win 92.7 - 78.3
Turnovers, we win 0.95 to 2.05

So a team that is expected to out gain us by 18 yds is expected to lose by 6?

What gives?

Turnovers and red zone efficiency.

We are projected to win the turnover battle by 1.10 for the game. That turnover differential wins 70% of the games.

This DEN defense is #2 on FO. They are no joke.

We catch them at a great time; at home after a big divisional loss, short week, during a QB switch. These factors should be very favorable to us.

Eagles. 21
Denver 17

Survive an uncomfortable close win, rest up during the bye, and put the pot of Dallas hate on simmer.

Posted by: Birdwatcher Nov 2 2017, 12:26 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Nov 1 2017, 11:18 PM) *
Using the matchups of the averages of our D vs their O and vice versa, here's how it looks for this week:

Expected Points we win 25.0 - 18.8
Expected Yards, they win 334-316
Yds per Rush Att, they win 4.1 - 3.6
Yds per Pass Att, we win 6.65 - 6.20
Passer Rating, we win 92.7 - 78.3
Turnovers, we win 0.95 to 2.05

So a team that is expected to out gain us by 18 yds is expected to lose by 6?

What gives?

Turnovers and red zone efficiency.

We are projected to win the turnover battle by 1.10 for the game. That turnover differential wins 70% of the games.

This DEN defense is #2 on FO. They are no joke.

We catch them at a great time; at home after a big divisional loss, short week, during a QB switch. These factors should be very favorable to us.

Eagles. 21
Denver 17

Survive an uncomfortable close win, rest up during the bye, and put the pot of Dallas hate on simmer.


Weren't you the same guy who claimed the numbers did not support the 13 point spread last week? Also, you left out the need for Big Red to do us a solid and hand Big D an L to further bury them in the standings.

Posted by: Joegrane Nov 2 2017, 12:58 PM

Remember SF lost one or more O Lineman from an already weak and injured line.

The rain was going to mess up numbers

Finally you can't count on a pick 6.

QUOTE (Birdwatcher @ Nov 2 2017, 12:26 PM) *
Weren't you the same guy who claimed the numbers did not support the 13 point spread last week? Also, you left out the need for Big Red to do us a solid and hand Big D an L to further bury them in the standings.


Posted by: Birdman420 Nov 2 2017, 01:29 PM

Mikey I love your numbers but I think Billy Bean proved that it isn't all about numbers past a certain point.

You can attribute a lot to the numbers but the end result surpasses them.

Posted by: The Franchise Nov 2 2017, 02:37 PM

I would expect Denver to cover the spread, but I think we pull out a close one.

Posted by: Rick Nov 2 2017, 03:45 PM

Ok, I'm usually much more pessimistic..especially when facing a defense like the Broncos have (and especially with a banged-up/challenged O Line), but I feel better and better about this team. I get the feeling they won't have a letdown. I also get the feeling the offense will find a way to win and the defense will show up. This team has a buzz--especially at home.

If they were in Denver, I'd be much more worried. I just feel good about this game.

And I HATE to go on record as saying this....

Posted by: Birdman420 Nov 2 2017, 04:31 PM

Is Siemian still their starter? His last thursday night performance was really bad. Hoping that continues.

Posted by: Eyrie Nov 2 2017, 04:48 PM

QUOTE (Rick @ Nov 2 2017, 08:45 PM) *
Ok, I'm usually much more pessimistic..especially when facing a defense like the Broncos have (and especially with a banged-up/challenged O Line), but I feel better and better about this team. I get the feeling they won't have a letdown. I also get the feeling the offense will find a way to win and the defense will show up. This team has a buzz--especially at home.

If they were in Denver, I'd be much more worried. I just feel good about this game.

And I HATE to go on record as saying this....

OK, we now know who jinxed us when we lose on Sunday tongue.gif

QUOTE (Birdman420 @ Nov 2 2017, 09:31 PM) *
Is Siemian still their starter? His last thursday night performance was really bad. Hoping that continues.

It'll be Brock Osweiler, which probably worries Broncos fans more than it worries us.

Posted by: Joegrane Nov 2 2017, 05:22 PM

Does the change in QB make anyone a bit nervous? That means more scouting work for the Eagles' coaches.

Supposedly the O linemen who will cover Graham and Jernigan are not playing well. They typically run block well but doing that vs the Eagles is a long shot. Sounds like a long afternoon for their O.

A Denver reporter said opposing TEs have done some damage, but our outside WRs have little chance against their outside CBs. Supposedly Ertz got dinged up in practice.

QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 2 2017, 04:48 PM) *
OK, we now know who jinxed us when we lose on Sunday tongue.gif


It'll be Brock Osweiler, which probably worries Broncos fans more than it worries us.


Posted by: nephillymike Nov 2 2017, 06:41 PM

Mikeynumbers is just reporting the numbers.

You would think he picked them to lose!

One more favorable Eagles trend; this is DEN 3rd consecutive road game. Betting them to cover the 3rd leg of a road trip is normally a losing bet.

Caution though. A team that is projected to gain more yards than the opposition has much more than a puncher's chance.

Posted by: Rick Nov 2 2017, 07:25 PM

QUOTE (Eyrie @ Nov 2 2017, 05:48 PM) *
OK, we now know who jinxed us when we lose on Sunday tongue.gif

I know, that's why I hesitated before saying it...

I'll take the hit if I need to. It's about TEAM this season...

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