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Eagles Forum _ Philadelphia Eagles or Football Related Discussion _ 4th down data.

Posted by: nephillymike Sep 24 2017, 05:16 PM

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down

32% is the chance not 20%.

Still, I don't know what the hell the analytics guys are seeing to say that was the odds to play in that spot.

I think I could find many holes in that analysis.

Posted by: Pila Sep 24 2017, 05:22 PM

No. You pin them with a punt in that spot. That's what analytics should be saying if it was adequately dealing with real life factors.

Posted by: Zero Sep 24 2017, 05:23 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 24 2017, 06:16 PM) *
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/calculating-the-probability-of-converting-on-4th-down

32% is the chance not 20%.

Still, I don't know what the hell the analytics guys are seeing to say that was the odds to play in that spot.

I think I could find many holes in that analysis.

They can say what they want and support it with whatever numbers they can create, it was still dumb.

Posted by: The Franchise Sep 24 2017, 05:28 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 24 2017, 06:16 PM) *
32% is the chance not 20%.

Still, I don't know what the hell the analytics guys are seeing to say that was the odds to play in that spot.

I think I could find many holes in that analysis.


I've torn apart too many of Kevin Rudy's bullshit 'studies' to count. Click on his name, and his profile pic should tell you all you need to know about his knowledge of different dynamics in sports. He's another one who twists data to support passing the ball 80% of the time.

I couldn't open up the tab where he specifies his data, but it's heavily implied that most of it is from college football. There's no fucking way in hell an NFL probability of going for it on 4th and 8 is 32%. And nobody who understands anything about the game would say anything other than it was a completely stupid decision by Pederson. I hope the press pushes him hard on that.

Posted by: nephillymike Sep 24 2017, 06:31 PM

Curiosity is killing me, though.

Mikeynumbers would like the chance to rip it to shreds.

Posted by: Eyrie Sep 25 2017, 01:53 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 25 2017, 12:31 AM) *
Curiosity is killing me, though.

Mikeynumbers would like the chance to rip it to shreds.

I can fix that for you without any effort - just insert a decimal point between the 3 and the 2 to get the real world odds.

As I said at the time, I'd have supported going for it if we only needed 2 or 3 yards, but not eight. That would have still been a bad decision even if we had converted.

Posted by: The Franchise Sep 25 2017, 02:04 PM

QUOTE (nephillymike @ Sep 24 2017, 06:31 PM) *
Curiosity is killing me, though.

Mikeynumbers would like the chance to rip it to shreds.


There's more than enough info given to automatically dismiss his study. Look at some of his other ones. I really hope this is just a hobby for him, and poor saps don't pay him for 'predictions.'

Posted by: The Franchise Sep 29 2017, 09:04 AM

Bump.

Click on his name and look at his pic. That's the guy who inspired 4th and 8. Feel good about that? laugh.gif

Posted by: bwc2112 Sep 29 2017, 09:43 AM

Kevin Rudy ? That's my dipshit neighbors kid and the prick still isn't finished mowing my damn lawn ! ac6.gif

Posted by: The Franchise Sep 29 2017, 10:21 AM

QUOTE (bwc2112 @ Sep 29 2017, 09:43 AM) *
Kevin Rudy ? That's my dipshit neighbors kid and the prick still isn't finished mowing my damn lawn ! ac6.gif


Maybe he crunched some numbers, and the data showed that your grass won't grow too much before it starts snowing. laugh.gif

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